BHARAT BALLOT 09: UNDERSTANDING ANDHRA PRADESH: THE TURNOUT

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SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: UNDERSTANDING ANDHRA PRADESH: THE TURNOUT

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1. SUMMARY: Voter turnout in the state of Andhra Pradesh (AP)
was significantly higher than the national average during the
concurrent 2009 national and state elections. Neither issues,
nor sops, nor the much-hyped media and youth campaigns seemed to
be the driving force behind this. It was women who made the
difference. END SUMMARY.

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Turnout: Braving the Heat
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2. AP voters turned out in droves under a blazing sun to cast
their ballot during the first two phases of the concurrent
national and state 2009 elections. The official turnout for
Phase I was nearly 70 percent and during Phase II it topped 75
percent. The 72 percent average for the state was far above the
national average of 57 percent. Speaker of the AP Legislative
Assembly K. Suresh Reddy told the Charge d'Affaires (CDA) that
`people survived four to five hours in the heat to do their
duty,' but this time the average voter only had to wait for 30
minutes. The Speaker highlighted the `success' of the Election
Commission's (EC) Phase I and II planning, especially efforts to
purge the voting rolls of duplicate voters.


3. Political observers noted that the elaborate security
arrangements instituted by AP Director General of Police (DGP),
A.K. Mohanty were another essential factor promoting the high
turnout. There was no significant violence by Naxalite or other
groups with intent to disrupt voting in the state. In the
run-up to first round of polls vigilant policing seized 437
illegal guns, 777 homemade bombs, 69 hand grenades, and more
than 250 million rupees (USD 5 million) in cash. DGP Mohanty's
efforts to control the flow of money and liquor prior to the
elections were widely seen as being totally unbiased. A media
interlocutor opined that some previously disaffected voters saw
these efforts to `clean up' the process, and were inspired to
cast ballots for the first time.

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Issues: From None to Local
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4. The Times of India declared, `This is a strange election -
it's an all-India election with virtually no national issues.
Security or terrorism doesn't seem to be agitating people across
the country.' Campaigning in the state on April 6, Gujarat
Chief Minister Narendra Modi (BJP) declared that Hyderabad is
`sitting on a powder keg. Terrorists more dangerous than those
in Kashmir live here.' However, voters did not seem to agree.
Even the recent Mumbai terror attacks, which reminded many
Hyderabad residents of the three major bombings that impacted
this city in 2007, didn't create a groundswell of interest in
the issue. For Srinivas Reddy, Deputy Editor of the The Hindu
daily's Hyderabad edition, the reasons were obvious: urban
dwellers grew to accept that `the bigger the city, the more
security issues you have;' and terrorism wasn't an issue for
AP's rural voters, who are not affected by it and for whom cheap
rice, reliable access to water and other basic necessities are
the issues of overriding importance.


5. In the last election it was the Congress party's promise to
provide `free power to farmers' and to dramatically increase
irrigation projects throughout the state carried the party to an
overwhelming victory. Not surprisingly, in this election cycle,
each of the main contestants - the ruling Congress party, the
opposition `Grand Alliance' led by the Telugu Desam Party (TDP),
and newly formed Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) led by a Telugu film
star turned politician - curried favor with the voters by trying
to outbid each other with promises of sops.


6. Speaker Suresh Reddy (Congress) noted that his party's free
health care schemes for the poor combined with massive
multi-year irrigation programs had improved living conditions in
both the cities and villages for so many voters that Congress
would win at the polls. He remarked that Congress wasn't
offering more sops but continued good governance and that
`governments which do reasonably well usually return to office.'

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He continued that `Congress' ability to deliver more than they
promise' foretells a return to power both in the state and
nationally. [NOTE: Speaker Suresh Reddy took `a calculated
risk' and lost his bid for fifth consecutive term of office
after changing constituencies. END NOTE]


7. TDP Leader N. Chandrababu Naidu highlighted the positive
response by voters to his party's Cash Transfer Scheme (CTS) for
the poor. He noted that previous employment/poverty alleviation
schemes were marred by the fact that middlemen would siphon off
as much as 80 percent of the allotted funds. This problem would
be resolved by paying the funds directly into accounts at
various nationalized banks held by a woman in the family, who
had access to them through an ATM card.


8. PRP leader K. Chiranjeevi launched the party with promises
of social justice and an improved society without corruption.
However, he quickly adopted the familiar strategy of his rivals
for wooing voters. Throughout the campaign he made promises
ranging from a guarantee of 5 hours free power each morning and
evening to rehabilitation packages for displaced farmers. Most
political analysts commented that it was the chance to see the
AP's biggest film star and not the programs on offer which was
the main reason that thousands turned up at PRP rallies and were
quick to add that attendance at rallies does not necessarily
turn into votes at the polls.

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Selling the Party: Media and New Technology
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9. Accusations of media bias and unethical practices were so
rampant that on May 14 the Press Council of India called for an
investigation into allegations that several newspapers, in
particular vernacular dailies, published paid news articles
during the elections. Media analysts say this is not surprising
as most of AP's major media is visibly split into different
camps - either in favor of or against a particular party.


10. Longtime TDP supporter and media tycoon Ramoji Rao owns
both `Eenadu,' AP's largest circulation Telugu-language
newspaper, and `ETV,' the most widely watched Telugu-language
news channel. To counter what was widely seen as open
campaigning by the media against the Congress in the last
election, YSR launched his own Telugu daily `Sakshi' and Telugu
TV news channel `Sakshi TV' with his son (and Congress candidate
for MP from the `family seat' in Kuddapah) as Chairman and CEO
of the group media. Chiranjeevi is part-owner of the popular
family channel `MAA TV.' He cancelled the planned launch of the
24-hour Telugu news station `MAA News' just weeks before the
first round of polling. The average voter is well aware of
these various affiliations and so the media campaigns by each of
the outlets were largely ignored by the public.


11. Increasingly voters in this state, known as a center of
Information Technology, are tuning out traditional media and
getting their news via the internet - or to be more specific on
their mobile phones. To tap into this burgeoning space
campaigns quickly contracted with mobile service providers to
inaugurate mass SMS and text message campaigns. At a cost as
low as 10 paisa (USD .002) per message, the medium quickly
became crowded and many local residents reported receiving as
many as two or three SMS ads every day. Complaints about
negative campaigning via this medium soon arose and on May 4 the
Election Commission decided to prohibit the use of the medium to
make unsubstantiated allegations that slander either a party or
an individual candidate. Dr. Padmaja Shaw, Head, Department of
Communication and Journalism at Osmania University, noted that
`campaigns lost a tremendous opportunity by not using SMS
properly. The messages quickly became a nuisance - particularly
for the educated class' and may actually have depressed turnout.

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Youth Stay at Home
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12. Approximately 30 percent of potential voters are youth -

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loosely defined as 18 to 30 years old - and the importance of
the youth vote was much talked about in this election cycle.
However, in the 2004 national election only 50 percent of urban
youth voted, which was 8 percent below the national average.
This demographic generally cited corruption and the difficulty
with the voter registration process as the principal reasons for
their disinterest. In the months prior to the 2009 election
only 25 percent were registered to vote.


13. To address these issues numerous grassroots campaigns
sprang up after the Mumbai attacks to encourage youth to
register and vote. Media reports about these campaigns
highlighted use of a variety of hi-tech outreach efforts to
attract new voters, including SMS campaigns, social networking
sites, blogs, and promotional and educational videos on popular
sites. However, despite the popularity of YouTube and Orkut
(India's Facebook equivalent),surprisingly few groups had
official websites or registered their websites with search
engines such as Google or Yahoo. Of those groups that did have
a web presence, most consisted of only a single page which
listed email addresses. Emails sent to these websites
requesting information on how to register only rarely received a
response and phone numbers went unanswered. Even `Young
Tarang,' the youth voter drive initiated by the Election
Commission in Hyderabad, had no internet presence and their
registration drive lasted a mere six days.


14. Interestingly, some political analysts question whether
youth involvement in politics really matters. The Center for
the Study of Developing Societies completed a major study on the
attitudes of Indian youth and concluded that age matters
considerably less in determining voting behavior than does
caste, locality or gender. The study appears to show that
Indian youth generally follow the trends of their socio-economic
group, not their age group.

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Women Come Out
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15. The large scale turnout of women at polling booths,
especially during the second phase of polling, accounts for the
record number of votes cast in many constituencies, according to
many analysts. An April 30 report in The Hindu showed that
almost 4 percent more women voted in AP than during the last
election cycle. Asked why he thought women turned out in such
high numbers, Chiranjeevi cited the large numbers of women in
his fan clubs and quickly asserted, `It is me only.' However,
all the parties actively courted women voters and there were no
indications that they tilted heavily in favor of one of the
parties.

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The Arithmetic of Future Elections
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16. COMMENT: The large voter turnout in the state may portend
the emergence of a new vote bank arithmetic that will decide
future elections in AP. What that exactly will be is still far
from clear, but local politicians will continue to focus on
regional to the exclusion of national issues. The parties will
primarily use the center and any influence there to finance the
large development and social welfare programs they promised to
their constituents. END COMMENT.
KEUR