TELANGANA - ALL CALM IN A STATE OF ANARCHY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HYDERABAD 000138

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: TELANGANA - ALL CALM IN A STATE OF ANARCHY

REF: REFERENCES: A) NEW DELHI 2472, B) HYDERABAD 121, C) HYDERABAD 124, D) HYDERABAD 137

HYDERABAD 00000138 001.2 OF 002



1. (U) SUMMARY: Longtime Congress party stalwart and
underperforming Governor of Andhra Pradesh (AP) Narayan Dutt
Tiwari resigned following a sex scandal involving allegedly
trafficked women. Two days later, Chhattisgarh Governor ELS
Narasimhan, a former Intelligence Bureau (IB) Chief and fluent
Telugu speaker, was sworn in as Governor of Andhra Pradesh.
Media speculation about the timing of the revelations in the
midst of the controversy over Telangana (ref A) has led some
observers to question whether it will further delay decisive GoI
action on the statehood issue. END SUMMARY.

A Governor Takes Flight
--------------


2. (U) On December 26, Narayan Dutt Tiwari, the Governor of AP,
tendered his resignation to GoI President Pratibha Patil. The
resignation, accepted immediately, came a day after the 24-hour
Telugu language news channel ABN Andhra Jyothi aired an expose
embroiling the Governor in a sex scandal. The report purported
that Governor Tiwari and officials at Raj Bhavan were
trafficking young women from Uttarakhand on the pretext of
employment; these women were then forced to sate the sexual
advances of the Governor. The channel broadcast a grainy video
allegedly showing Governor Tiwari engaged in flagrante with
three young women at his official residence. In a scene
reminiscent of the recently cancelled march on the State
Assembly in support of Telangana statehood (ref B),Women's
groups immediately began to protest at the gate of the Raj
Bhavan. Media reports indicate that the decision to demand that
Governor Tiwari vacate his post came from New Delhi following a
high-level United Progressive Alliance (UPA) meeting chaired by
Congress party leader Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh.

An Ace Reliever
--------------


3. (SBU) On December 27, the GoI asked current Chhattisgarh
Governor ELS Narasimhan to accept the additional charge of
Governor for Andhra Pradesh. A fluent Telugu speaker,
Narasimhan reportedly attended a meeting with GoI Home Minister

P. Chidambaram to discuss the issue of Telangana statehood a few
days prior to the current controversy. As a former Intelligence
Bureau (IB) Chief, analysts expect him to provide the Congress
leadership with more accurate information and better insight
into the current political turmoil in the state than the
outgoing Tiwari. [COMMENT: In meetings with Congenoffs over the
past two years, Governor Tiwari appeared at times to have a
shaky grip on current affairs in the state. END COMMENT]. The
Chief Justice of the AP High Court administered the oath of
office on December 28. Governor Narasimhan emerged from the
1968 batch of the AP cadre of the Indian Police Service (IPS).


A Matter Of Perspective
--------------


4. (SBU) Rampant media speculation about the timing of the
revelations ascribes either pro- or anti-statehood motives to
ABN Andhra Jyothi, which was inaugurated on October 15, 2009.
Some analysts cite this media expose as an attempt to delay the
creation of a new state, pointing to the friendship between the
channel's owner, Vemuri Radhakrishna, and N. Chandrababu Naidu,
leader of the opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP). Naidu, a
former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, has seemed reluctant to
reaffirm his party's commitment to separate statehood. Other
analysts point the presence of Andhra Jyothi Editor, K.
Srinivas, at a pro-statehood event sponsored by the U.S.-based
Telangana Development Forum and postulate that Narisimhan's
ascension to governor cements the case for statehood. A
journalist from a rival news organization claiming close ties to
the reporters of ABN Andhra Jyothi dismissed the pro-and
anti-statehood theories - the true motive of the expose was to

HYDERABAD 00000138 002.2 OF 002


capture as much market share as possible for the new station by
putting out a sensational story. He added that this story has
been in development for six months and the timing is just
opportune.

Presidential Rule Imminent?


5. (SBU) On December 13, Union Law Minister and Andhra Pradesh
All India Congress Committee chair M. Veerappa Moily ruled out
the possibility that AP would be placed under President's Rule
in the wake of statewide civil unrest and adjournment of the
State Assembly following the resignations of over 40 percent of
the Members of the Legislative Assembly (ref C). However, some
pundits note that the timing of Governor Tiwari's resignation
coincides with the statement by Pranab Mukherjee, GoI Finance
Minister, that there will be "good news" on the question of
statehood for Telangana in the near future as well as the call
for more "bandhs" (ref D) by both the political party and the
student group Joint Action Committees. No matter what the "good
news" turns out to be, it is likely to be poorly received by the
one or the other side. The Congress party would like to prolong
the decision on statehood as long as possible and hedge their
bets to prepare for any eventuality. Lalitha Iyer of "The Week
" magazine told Congenoff, that "Tiwari couldn't handle the
situation in the state, which will only get worse. Presidential
Rule is the only way that the Congress leadership gets out of
this unscathed and Tiwari was incapable of running the state."

Calm in the Eye of the Storm
--------------


6. (SBU) COMMENT: AP is in the midst of a serious political
crisis: the legislature has adjourned until early February, the
Chief Minister has seen his administration paralyzed by cabinet
infighting, the Governor has been forced to resign under a cloud
of ignominy, and a fiscal shortfall grows by the day. The state
government is nearly at a standstill. Yet day-to-day life in
the state is mostly undeterred by the regional transportation
stoppages, laws banning large public assemblies and other
inconveniences created by repeated strikes. Students are most
affected due to cancelled classes and postponed exams, since the
street protests are centered on Osmania and other universities,
where students are concerned about their access to the economic
hub of Hyderabad. If the current cycle of protest and backroom
negotiation doesn't intensify, then the national leadership of
the Congress party may outlast both sides of this issue and
resolve the crisis peacefully. But if the situation escalates
and there are outbreaks of civil unrest, the appointment of the
effective and efficient ELS Narasimhan might prove to be an
asset for the state. END COMMENT.
LEONI