Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09HYDERABAD137
2009-12-24 11:43:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
American Consulate Hyderabad
Cable title:  

TELANGANA - THE STATEHOOD TRAP

Tags:  PGOV PREL PTER PINR KDEM IN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HYDERABAD 000137 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: TELANGANA - THE STATEHOOD TRAP

REF: REFERENCES: A) NEW DELHI 2472, B) HYDERABAD 121, C) HYDERABAD 124

HYDERABAD 00000137 001.2 OF 003


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HYDERABAD 000137

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: TELANGANA - THE STATEHOOD TRAP

REF: REFERENCES: A) NEW DELHI 2472, B) HYDERABAD 121, C) HYDERABAD 124

HYDERABAD 00000137 001.2 OF 003



1. (U) SUMMARY: The escalating tensions in Andhra Pradesh (AP)
over the future status of Telangana led to acts of violence
overnight as buses were torched and rail transport halted.
Authorities imposed a ban on public meetings until New Year's
Day. The December 11 announcement of the center's support for
the creation of the new state led to sustained public protests
and sporadic violence and a period of backroom political
maneuvering and public posturing by leaders of both the
pro-statehood and anti-statehood camps followed. On December
23, GOI Home Minister P. Chidambaram made a second statement
declaring that the situation had `altered' and needed further
review. Proponents of statehood declared this a betrayal and
called for 48-hour `bandh' (strike) throughout the region. END
SUMMARY.

Another 48-Hour Bandh Disrupts Andhra Pradesh
--------------


2. (SBU) Starting on the evening of December 23, demonstrations
occurred in various areas of Hyderabad and throughout Telangana.
The regional transportation system was again targeted by
protests disrupting bus and rail lines. While media reports of
the ensuing violence indicate that as many as 30 buses were
burnt and government property was vandalized, the damage to
private property was minimal. To counter the expected
disturbances, local law enforcement doubled the police presence
in the city to 18,000 personnel and deployed the paramilitary
Rapid Action Forces to sensitive areas throughout Telangana.
The state also issued a ban on all gatherings of more than four
people until January 1, 2010. Against this background, the
local police provided international hi-tech companies with
assurances that any disturbances around Osmania University - on
the other side of the city - would not adversely impact their
ability to continue operations or the movement of people to and
from their place of employment.


Another Violent Reaction to the Home Minister
--------------


3. (SBU) On December 23 GOI Home Minister Chidambaram made a
statement on Telangana statehood (his second) which noted that

the `situation in Andhra has altered' and asserted the `need to
hold wide-ranging consultations with all political parties in
the state.' This statement prompted Telangana Rashtra Samithi
(TRS) leader K. Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR),whose hunger strike
provided the initial spark for the current crisis, to hold a
press conference later that day characterizing the Home
Minister's latest statement as a `betrayal of the Telangana
cause' since `no time-frame was fixed for the wide-ranging
consultations.' KCR then went on to threaten major civil unrest
if the Center backed down on its pledge and called for a 48-hour
`bandh' starting December 24 in conjunction with the Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) and other parties espousing statehood. [NOTE:
That the press conference was held in the residence of Jana
Reddy, former AP Home Minister under Congress Chief Minister YSR
Reddy, highlights the internal divisions in the state party on
this issue. END NOTE] Meanwhile, fourteen Congress MPs from the
Telangana region huddled in New Delhi, threatening to resign.


Chidambaram's First Statement
--------------


4. (U) Faced with escalating protests and a prominent politician
on an indefinite hunger strike, Chidambaram made a `midnight'
announcement on December 11 that the process of carving the
Telangana region out of AP to form a separate state (reftel A)
would start. This was met first by sporadic civil unrest (reftel
B) and subsequently by a wave of Members of the Legislative
Assembly (MLA) resigning en masse from the State Assembly
(reftel C). On December 15 Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
and other senior Congress party leaders called for calm and
promised consultations and a `go slow' approach. This reduced

HYDERABAD 00000137 002.2 OF 003


tension in the state's other regions - Coastal Andhra and
Rayalaseema - as protests wound down to watch and wait. On
December 14, the AP Speaker of the House adjourned the state
legislature `sine die' and effectively postponed the need to
decide whether to accept the tendered resignations indefinitely.



Calm in the Eye of the Storm
--------------


5. (SBU) Over the ensuing week the political maneuvering
continued unabated, though fairly calmly. Congress MLAs from
both `Pro-Telangana' (statehood) and `United Andhra'
(anti-statehood) camps converged on New Delhi to lobby the
senior Congress leadership. Both sides heard coordinated
statements that a decision would be taken only after consensus
was reached, but neither group appeared open to conciliatory
action. Speculation regarding the future status of Hyderabad
seemed ever present as politicians from all three of the state's
regions staked a claim to AP's capital city and commercial
center. It quickly became the central point of contention and
KCR declared on December 21 that `If anyone says a word that
Hyderabad is not part of Telangana, we will cut out their
tongues.'


6. (SBU) AP regional opposition parties also faced splits in
their ranks and quickly backtracked from their earlier support
of a separate state for Telangana. Even as he criticized the
Congress leadership for making a hasty decision without
consulting the people of the state, Telugu Desam Party leader N.
Chandrababu Naidu cautiously adopted a position mirroring the
Congress position. Praja Rajyam Party leader K. Chiranjeevi
made a more decisive break with his party's election stance and
openly declared his opposition to dividing the state. The
famous actor then announced that he also would tender his
resignation to the State Assembly.


7. (SBU) As the backroom maneuvering continued, the Congress MP
from Vijayawada Rajagopal Lagadapati submitted his resignation
to the Lok Sabha Speaker. He then sought to replicate KCR's
success and declared his own indefinite fast in support of a
unified state. Like KCR, Rajagopal was taken into police
custody outside of Hyderabad and transported to his home
district. On December 20, Mr. Rajagopal escaped from the
Government Hospital in Vijayawada only to resurface the next day
at the Nizam Institute of Sciences (NIMS) in Hyderabad - the
same place KCR stayed during his fasting. Tensions began to
rise as Pro-Telangana supporters rallied to protest the presence
in Hyderabad of a prominent proponent of a unified state.


How to Avoid Commitment and Alienate Supporters
-------------- --


8. (SBU) COMMENT: Home Minister Chidambaram's December 23
statement went either too far or not far enough, depending upon
the audience. Many local observers took it to mean that the
Congress leadership has decided not to decide and instead has
put the issue on a backburner. With Telangana's prospects for
separate statehood unresolved, the simmering unrest is likely to
continue. Meanwhile the perception grows that the Congress
leadership is unable to unify and control its members, thus
providing ammunition to rival parties throughout the state and
the country and also to factions within the party. Still, a
quick decision by Congress to end this dance in the current
environment would only precipitate action by whichever of the
two camps feels aggrieved by the outcome.


9. (SBU) Congress has painted itself into a corner. The party
would like nothing better than a return to the dominant position
they enjoyed under recently deceased AP Chief Minister YSR
Reddy. However, with no easy way to put the statehood genie
back in the bottle, the leadership will play for time and hope
that people tire of the disruptions to their daily lives before

HYDERABAD 00000137 003.2 OF 003


unequivocal movement towards statehood is required - a risky
strategy given the escalating rhetoric, protests, and violence
of the last few weeks. END COMMENT.
LEONI