MACAU CHIEF EXECUTIVE ELECTION: BEIJING BLINKS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000983

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2024
TAGS: PGOV PHUM CH MC
SUBJECT: MACAU CHIEF EXECUTIVE ELECTION: BEIJING BLINKS?

REF: HONG KONG 499

Classified By: Consul General Joe Donovan for reasons 1,4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary and Comment: Unless and until Macau
Prosecutor General Ho Chio-meng throws his hat in the ring,
it appears Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture Fernando
Chui Sai-on has a lock on Macau's July Chief Executive
election. Ho's entry would likely be a signal Beijing had
decided he "should" win, but as the Chui campaign builds
momentum, it grows increasingly difficult for Beijing to
issue such a fiat with any finesse. That said, Ho polls well
ahead of Chui among the general public. Secretary for
Economy and Finance Francis Tam Pak-yuen seems out of the
running, although a rumored appointment to the Macau
Foundation would both distance him from any failings of a
Chui administration and give him a platform to build his
network through largesse. While at least one prominent
"traditional association" has urged a multi-candidate race,
the remaining announced contenders stand little chance of
even being nominated. End summary and comment.


2. (U) Macau began the "election" process for its next Chief
Executive (CE) May 25, with contenders able to obtain their
nomination forms. Macau's 300-member election committee will
begin the nomination process June 12, giving each member two
weeks to cast his or her single nominating vote. A
"campaign" period runs July 11-24, presumably to allow
candidates the chance to sway those who did not support their
nomination to change their vote for the election. The
election committee will cast their actual ballots July 26.
Beijing must then ratify the elected candidate. The new
Chief Executive will take office December 20.

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Macau Elites Throw Down...
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3. (C) In what Macau Inter-University Institute (IIUM)
scholar Jose Duarte called an "ultimatum" to Beijing, Macau's
elite seem to have closed ranks behind former Secretary for
Social Affairs and Culture Fernando Chui Sai-on for Macau's
next CE. The red-blooded scion of one of Macau's most
prominent "patriotic" business clans, Chui is seen as
incumbent CE Edmund Ho Hau-wah's protege. Chui has long been
tipped as a candidate, but his connection with vast cost
overruns in preparations for the East Asian Games in 2005
have left him tainted with rumors of corruption. CE Ho's own
corruption problems, caused by the prosecution of former
Secretary for Transport and Public Works Ao Man-long, have
further hurt Chui, reportedly in Beijing as well as Macau.
That said, Chui's campaign is optimistically predicting it
can lock up over 200 of the 300 nominating votes.

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...and Beijing Gives Up?
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4. (C) Our contacts report Beijing being of divided mind
about the Macau CE election. While Chui may be regarded as
tainted goods, he does represent the choice of the Macau
elite, and in any case can be expected to toe Beijing's line,
particularly given the shorter leash he will have after the
Ao Man-long scandal. Prosecutor General Ho Chio-meng, though
viewed as personally clean and, as the man who brought down
Ao, symbolic of Beijing's attitude regarding corruption,
would be a tougher sell to Macau's business community. Ho is
the most popular candidate on the street -- an informal (and
unscientific) internet poll showed Ho leading Chui five to
one among netizens. That said, our contacts are more
ambivalent. IIUM scholar Eric Sautede told us working level
contacts in the Prosecutor's office are neither impressed
with nor fond of Ho. University of Macau (UM) professor and
"Civic Power" leader Agnes Lam notes Ho's image is better
than his substance. Other than prosecute Ao, she asks, what
has he done? That said, Lam would support Ho over Chui, if
only as the best of an indifferent lot.


5. (C) UM Government Professor Eilo Yu told us Ho will not
run unless Beijing asks him to, with the implication that, if
Ho does run, Beijing intends he win. Yu sees Ho as able to
win support in the electoral committee from electors
representing the professions and civil service. If Beijing
were to back Ho, IIUM's Duarte contends, "it would have a
fight on its hands." Admitting that Beijing could force the
decision on Macau, Duarte nevertheless thinks the local
establishment would demand a "high price" for their
acquiescence. Comment: In addition, the longer Beijing
waits, the more momentum will have built up behind the Chui
campaign (which already boasts a staff of fifteen),and the
harder it would be to make the move look like anything other

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than a fiat. End comment.


6. (C) A scenario we have heard from Yu and Duarte is that
Beijing might allow Chui one term, with an active effort to
groom someone more suitable to run in five years. As a check
on Chui, Ho would either serve as Secretary for Justice and
Administration (SJA - the number two spot in the Macau
Administration) or remain as Prosecutor General. IIUM's
Sautede countered that the SJA position is a weak one in the
government despite its rank, since it controls no big budget
resources or sectors ofthe economy.

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Fancis Tam: Greener Pastures?
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7. (C) Once considered a serious contnder for the CE post,
Secretary for Economy and inance Francis Tam Pak-yuen seems
likely to reman on the sidelines for this eection. He has
not resigned from his post, a requirement were he to stand
for elections, and there are no indications he will. IIUM's
Duarte reported both that Tam had unspecified "health
problems" and that Tam was personally not interested in the
CE job, although other contacts had previously suggested he
was in the running (reftel). UM's Yu told us Tam is tipped
to take over the Macau Foundation, the government-supported
grant-giving organization which provides financial support to
most of Macau's social organizations. If this is the case,
it's an excellent move for Tam should he have further
political ambitions. From that post, his fortunes would seem
to be distanced from whatever administration takes office,
but he would nonetheless be able to build a contact network
and gain popularity through the Foundation's grants.

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Charge of the Light Brigade
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8. (C) Media reports have covered extensively polling data
showing corruption is the number one issue on the minds of
Macau residents when considering a new Chief Executive, and
Chui made dealing with the issue a core campaign promise.
That said, while neither criticizing Chui directly nor
endorsing another candidate, Macau's Federation of
Neighborhood Associations (UGAMM in Portuguese) has publicly
called for more candidates to join the race. An ad hoc
coalition of citizens also sponsored a half-page
advertisement in Hong Kong's pro-democracy Apple Daily May
26, which criticized Macau corruption and business-government
collusion, including the East Asian Games issue but not
naming Chui. Another group of citizens sent letters
containing 3-inch razor blades to Hong Kong's centrist Sing
Tao and Ming Pao newspapers. The senders declared their
willingness to use "suicide protests" against a "big clan"
controlling the CE-ship. Organizers of the Apple Daily
advert denied involvement in the letters, theorizing that the
simplified characters used in the letters sent to the papers
indicated the senders were likely unemployed recent
immigrants from the Mainland.


9. (C) That said, those who have actually taken steps to run
are no competition for Chui, and are unlikely even to be
nominated. Media report they include:

-- Lei Kuong-on: A Chinese Medicine doctor who also
launched a failed bid to challenge CE Ho in 2004;

-- Ng Loi-in: An admitted humble croupier who nevertheless
hopes to do something "extraordinary" for Macau. His plans
include establishing a "red light district" for the territory;

-- The mysterious "Mr. Loi": A gentleman who gave only his
surname and mentioned a connection to Macau's Kiang Wu
hospital. Loi fled election commission premises to avoid
being photographed; and

-- Ms. Lao Sao-in: A kindergarten teacher who bills herself
as a "mother of education", who hopes to have Macau society
focus on something more than gambling.
DONOVAN