MACAU CHIEF EXECUTIVE: THREE NON-CANDIDATES IN A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000499

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MC
SUBJECT: MACAU CHIEF EXECUTIVE: THREE NON-CANDIDATES IN A
NON-ELECTION

REF: HONG KONG 92

Classified By: Consul General Joe Donovan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and comment: In the end, Beijing will choose
the next Chief Executive (CE) of Macau, due to take office
December 20 this year at the end of Edmund Ho's second term.
The only question is which of the three distinct options it
prefers. Offering continuity, connections, social standing
and a certain swagger, Secretary for Social Affairs and
Culture Fernando Chui Sai-on was until recently the favorite,
and reportedly has Edmund Ho's support. However, the
prosecution of former Secretary for Transportation Ao
Man-long on corruption charges reportedly put CE Ho out of
favor in Beijing, and massive cost overruns from Chui's
management of the East Asian games have left a cloud over his
candidacy. The more staid Secretary for Economy and Finance
Francis Tam Pak-yuen's technocratic ability and
corruption-free record have won widespread acknowledgment
that he could do the job, but only tepid support. While the
Ao Man-long case put Chui's candidacy on the rocks, it
propelled Macau-born, Mainland-trained Prosecutor General Ho
Chio-meng into a dark horse candidacy for the CE-ship that
some observers believe is gaining ground. None of these men
is of the same cut or polish as Edmund Ho, but our contacts
suggest what Beijing wants right now is a capable
administrator with clean hands and an obedient demeanor. End
summary and comment.

--------------
The Selection Process
--------------


2. (SBU) Chief Executive (CE) Edmund Ho Hau-wah's second and
final term will end December 20. Macau took the first step
toward replacing him February 2, when CE Ho appointed the
five-member Electoral Affairs Committee for the Election of
the Chief Executive. This body will oversee the two
remaining steps in the process: the election of the
300-person committee that will elect the Chief Executive and
then the actual CE election. The 300-person Election
Committee will be elected by various registered Macau social
organizations, broken down into four broad sectors. 100
committee members will come from industry, commerce and
finance; 80 from culture, education and professions; 80 from
labor, social services, religious and other groups; and the
final 40 will be comprised of slightly more than half of the
Legislative Assembly and representatives from Macau's
delegations to the National People's Congress and Chinese
People's Political Consultative Conference. Registration of
candidates and groups eligible to participate in this process
began March 3 and concluded March 17, with the election of
the committee scheduled for April 26. Each of the 300
members of the committee has one nominating vote, and
candidates for the CE election require 50 nominations.
Sometime between June 28 and October 20 (date still to be
determined),the committee will vote from among the nominees
to select the new CE. Beijing will review and approve or
reject the winner shortly thereafter, and the new CE will
take office on December 20.


3. (C) In reality, most observers expect that Beijing will
have made its preference known in advance, making the
election a formality. Our current expectation is that, while
a second candidate may be nominated for form's sake, an upset
of any kind is a remote possibility. Although several people
have been tipped as contenders for the post, none is actively
campaigning. Since Beijing has not yet indicated its
preference (reftel),none of the candidates wants to be seen
as running contrary to Beijing's wishes. Unlike Edmund Ho,
who for years prior to Macau's 1999 reversion to the PRC
stood out as the clear choice for CE, the next leader will be
chosen from a field of distinctly lesser lights. Three of
these non-candidates are seen as the front-runners at this
point (since reftel, businessman and Executive Councilor Ho
Iat-seng has publicly removed himself from consideration).
With Edmund Ho seen as having become too big for his britches
to suit Beijing, both AmCham Macau Chairman Paul Tse
(strictly protect throughout) and sometime-democratic
legislator Jose Pereira Coutinho told us March 12 that one of
Beijing's top criteria will be obedience. Coutinho also
expects an end to the one-man rule of the Edmund Ho era, with
a concomitant rise in the importance of the policy
secretaries.

--------------
Fernando Chui: Old Macau, Recent Scandal
--------------


4. (C) Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture Fernando Chui

HONG KONG 00000499 002 OF 002


comes from a "patriotic" Macau family as established and
prominent as Edmund Ho's, with a brother and a cousin also
serving in the Legislative Assembly. Enjoying extensive
contacts throughout Macau society and (reportedly) Edmund
Ho's endorsement, Chui would have been the clear favorite.
However, the corruption conviction of former Transportation
Secretary Ao Man-long dealt what our contacts and Macau
observers feel was a near-mortal blow to Edmund Ho's
credibility in Beijing, tainting his protege as a result. In
addition, Chui faced tough questions related to massive cost
overruns and use of illegal labor in the construction of the
East Asian Games stadium in 2005. That said, no one is
counting Chui out yet. AmCham's Tse told the Consul General
that Chui lunches with senior officers working for fellow
non-candidate Economy and Finance Secretary Francis Tam to
flaunt his broad connections. Tse also described Beijing as
divided in its view, with the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs
Office, China's leading policy body on Macau, supporting
Chui, while others reject him. Coutinho told us the election
of Chui (to whom he disparagingly referred as "the fat guy")
would be a continuation of the Ho administration's corruption
and rule by Macau's elite, rather than by a leader with
popular support. Although he never mentioned running for CE,
Chui projected a relaxed confidence in a meeting with the
Consul General March 12, perhaps suggesting he still likes
his chances.

--------------
Francis Tam: This Charmless Man
--------------


5. (C) For someone widely recognized for his ability and
regarded as generally free of corruption, Secretary for
Economy and Finance Francis Tam seems to have few friends.
That said, he remains the odds-on favorite for those who
think Beijing will choose ability (and reliability) over
connections. AmCham's Tse judges that Tam knows more about
the economy and the gaming industry than the other candidates
combined, but lacks popular support, with CE Ho reported to
have asked him to bow out of the CE race. Coutinho rates Tam
as capable and obedient, but argues he has not been in the
loop for major decisions. For example, Coutinho claims that
even fifteen minutes before the results of Macau's expanded
gaming license tender were announced in 2002, Tam (under
whose portfolio gaming falls) did not know the winners.
While he did not address his own prospects, Tam alluded to
recent corruption scandals, and told the Consul General March
12 that "people want to see things will be changing for the
better in some sectors." That said, while Tam gave us the
impression that he felt he could implement those changes, he
also seemed almost resigned to not having the chance.

--------------
The Other Ho: Macau's New Sheriff
--------------


6. (C) For those who see Beijing reaching for a new broom to
sweep Macau's corruption-tainted government clean, Prosecutor
General Ho Chio-meng has become the man to watch. Following
Ho's successful prosecution of Ao Man-long in perhaps the
biggest corruption case in Macau's history, a groundswell of
support, which includes legislator Coutinho, began propelling
Ho into consideration as a CE candidate. At this point,
Coutinho feels Ho is no longer a dark horse candidate,
although when pressed, he conceded that Tam stood a good
chance of edging Ho out. AmCham's Tse still sees Ho as a
long shot, but concurs his star has risen. However, Tse
reports rumors are now circulating that Ho is not really a
Macau person, and even that he was planted by Beijing.
(Note: Though born in Macau, Ho grew up and was educated in
the Mainland, receiving his initial law degree there and
working as a judge in Guangdong's High Court before returning
to Macau in 1990. He went on to earn a Doctor of Laws degree
from Beijing University in 2002.) If not chosen as CE,
Coutinho suggested Ho might serve as Secretary for
Administration and Justice under Tam.
DONOVAN