Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09HILLAH7
2009-01-27 05:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED
REO Hillah
Cable title:
ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN BABIL: CREDITABLE IMPROVEMENTS OVER
how-toVZCZCXRO5576 PP RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHKUK DE RUEHIHL #0007 0270526 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P R 270526Z JAN 09 FM REO HILLAH TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1138 INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE RUEHIHL/REO HILLAH 1211
UNCLAS HILLAH 000007
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN BABIL: CREDITABLE IMPROVEMENTS OVER
2005
UNCLAS HILLAH 000007
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN BABIL: CREDITABLE IMPROVEMENTS OVER
2005
1. (U) SUMMARY.The Babil provincial election campaign has been
lively and robust, engaging previously alienated voters (Sunnis
and Saddrists) and producing predictions of a high turnout. The
campaign reflects creditable progress over the last election in
2005, and the Independent High Electoral Commission's (IHEC)
performance in the province has been generally effective, fair
and impartial. None of the campaign violations that have
occurred - and all but two of the 77 political entities have
been served warnings - are serious enough to put in question the
credibility of the January 31 vote, although the greatest risk
of fraud will occur in the ballot counting on election night, in
the view of IHEC and political party leaders. END SUMMARY.
2.(U) Babil's Provincial Council (PC) election campaign has been
robust with more candidates competing than in any province
outside of Baghdad. ISCI and Da'wa haved used their influence
with the media and larger war chests to get out their message,
but nearly all political entities and candidates have engaged in
active campaigning. The provincial capital and many towns are
plastered with campaign posters from the 77 political entities
fielding candidates. PM Nuri Al-Maliki made a campaign stop in
Al-Hillah to address a rally at a football stadium, signaling
Da'wa's hope of building on the PM's personal popularity with
the voters. Other national figures campaigned in Babil,
including Da'wa breakaway leader Ibrahim Al-Ja'afari who visited
Hillah to assist ISCI's campaign by meeting with voters; COR
member and Badr chief Al-Ameri held a campaign meeting in
Hillah's Badr HQ; and ISCI's dauphin, Ammar Al-Hakim, visited
Hillah and held a rally at the same stadium as PM Al-Maliki.
Strong Turnout Expected
3. (U) Despite complexity of the ballot, most voters claim to be
informed about the voting process, and voter turnout is likely
to exceed the levels (65%) of the 2005 election. Earlier voter
skepticism appeared to slacken during the vibrant election
campaign of the last several weeks. The Sunnis in the north are
expected to fully participate in the election, although no one
slate appears to own the Sunni vote. Even the Saddrists, who
only months ago questioned the political process are actively
engaged in campaigning. In addition to the two "officially
endorsed" slates, Saddrist voters have at least three others
from which to choose.
Prospects for Change
4. (SBU) Governor Salim Saleh Al-Muslimawi does not have a
university degree, which in theory makes him ineligible to be
reelected by a new PC. With one-third of the PC not running for
reelection, the turnover could be considerable. As it appears
that its hold on power may weaken or be broken, ISCI has
increasingly relied on a message that it is the choice of the
Najaf Shia leadership (Marja'iyah). Hadi Al-Ameri (ISCI/Badr)
told Al-Hillah voters that his slate, Shaheed Al-Mihrab, is a
part of the chosen people of Marja'iyah because of ISCI's
sacrifices in resisting Saddam's regime.
Campaign Cheating: Widespread But Banal
5. (U) The Governor has even implied to his own hometown
constituents that they would be damned if they did not vote for
ISCI. Both ISCI and Da'wa, as well as former Governor Iskander
Witwit, stand accused of bribing voters by dispensing phone
cards, clothing, blankets, Qurans and meals in exchange for
pledges to vote for their slate. Governor Salim arranged a mass
wedding as a campaign event and included ISCI supporters who had
already been married to boost the numbers. As part of the
ceremony he also distributed wedding furniture to the
"newlyweds" by using money he had "collected" from Al-Hillah
merchants.
6. (U) Posters have been placed everywhere including government
buildings, which has been the source of many campaign violations
and complaints. However, most violations, as well as the use of
public office/funds for campaign purposes, have been of the
mundane type. In the view of many PRT contacts, the greatest
risk of fraud will be during the counting and certification of
the vote, especially in rural areas.
IHEC's Performance
7. (SBU) All but two of Babil's 77 political entities have been
warned by IHEC over illegalities, but none has been fined as of
January 26. The IHEC office in Babil has been fair and
competent, although this view is not fully shared by some of the
smaller political entities, who assume IHEC must be in the
pocket of the parties in power. Campaign violence has been
limited although highly publicized, as when Da'wa's number two
candidate was assassinated in Jabella on January 16.
HEATH
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN BABIL: CREDITABLE IMPROVEMENTS OVER
2005
1. (U) SUMMARY.The Babil provincial election campaign has been
lively and robust, engaging previously alienated voters (Sunnis
and Saddrists) and producing predictions of a high turnout. The
campaign reflects creditable progress over the last election in
2005, and the Independent High Electoral Commission's (IHEC)
performance in the province has been generally effective, fair
and impartial. None of the campaign violations that have
occurred - and all but two of the 77 political entities have
been served warnings - are serious enough to put in question the
credibility of the January 31 vote, although the greatest risk
of fraud will occur in the ballot counting on election night, in
the view of IHEC and political party leaders. END SUMMARY.
2.(U) Babil's Provincial Council (PC) election campaign has been
robust with more candidates competing than in any province
outside of Baghdad. ISCI and Da'wa haved used their influence
with the media and larger war chests to get out their message,
but nearly all political entities and candidates have engaged in
active campaigning. The provincial capital and many towns are
plastered with campaign posters from the 77 political entities
fielding candidates. PM Nuri Al-Maliki made a campaign stop in
Al-Hillah to address a rally at a football stadium, signaling
Da'wa's hope of building on the PM's personal popularity with
the voters. Other national figures campaigned in Babil,
including Da'wa breakaway leader Ibrahim Al-Ja'afari who visited
Hillah to assist ISCI's campaign by meeting with voters; COR
member and Badr chief Al-Ameri held a campaign meeting in
Hillah's Badr HQ; and ISCI's dauphin, Ammar Al-Hakim, visited
Hillah and held a rally at the same stadium as PM Al-Maliki.
Strong Turnout Expected
3. (U) Despite complexity of the ballot, most voters claim to be
informed about the voting process, and voter turnout is likely
to exceed the levels (65%) of the 2005 election. Earlier voter
skepticism appeared to slacken during the vibrant election
campaign of the last several weeks. The Sunnis in the north are
expected to fully participate in the election, although no one
slate appears to own the Sunni vote. Even the Saddrists, who
only months ago questioned the political process are actively
engaged in campaigning. In addition to the two "officially
endorsed" slates, Saddrist voters have at least three others
from which to choose.
Prospects for Change
4. (SBU) Governor Salim Saleh Al-Muslimawi does not have a
university degree, which in theory makes him ineligible to be
reelected by a new PC. With one-third of the PC not running for
reelection, the turnover could be considerable. As it appears
that its hold on power may weaken or be broken, ISCI has
increasingly relied on a message that it is the choice of the
Najaf Shia leadership (Marja'iyah). Hadi Al-Ameri (ISCI/Badr)
told Al-Hillah voters that his slate, Shaheed Al-Mihrab, is a
part of the chosen people of Marja'iyah because of ISCI's
sacrifices in resisting Saddam's regime.
Campaign Cheating: Widespread But Banal
5. (U) The Governor has even implied to his own hometown
constituents that they would be damned if they did not vote for
ISCI. Both ISCI and Da'wa, as well as former Governor Iskander
Witwit, stand accused of bribing voters by dispensing phone
cards, clothing, blankets, Qurans and meals in exchange for
pledges to vote for their slate. Governor Salim arranged a mass
wedding as a campaign event and included ISCI supporters who had
already been married to boost the numbers. As part of the
ceremony he also distributed wedding furniture to the
"newlyweds" by using money he had "collected" from Al-Hillah
merchants.
6. (U) Posters have been placed everywhere including government
buildings, which has been the source of many campaign violations
and complaints. However, most violations, as well as the use of
public office/funds for campaign purposes, have been of the
mundane type. In the view of many PRT contacts, the greatest
risk of fraud will be during the counting and certification of
the vote, especially in rural areas.
IHEC's Performance
7. (SBU) All but two of Babil's 77 political entities have been
warned by IHEC over illegalities, but none has been fined as of
January 26. The IHEC office in Babil has been fair and
competent, although this view is not fully shared by some of the
smaller political entities, who assume IHEC must be in the
pocket of the parties in power. Campaign violence has been
limited although highly publicized, as when Da'wa's number two
candidate was assassinated in Jabella on January 16.
HEATH