FINLAND: LEFT LOSES, POPULISTS GAIN IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000220

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV FI
SUBJECT: FINLAND: LEFT LOSES, POPULISTS GAIN IN
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

REF: 08 HELSINKI 516


1. (SBU) Summary. With losses for the political left
and wins for fringe parties, the Finnish European
Parliament elections echoed results across the EU. The
populist and Euro-skeptic True Finns gained their first
parliamentary seat, and their leader received the most
votes of any candidate. The Greens were the only
member of the four-party governing coalition to gain a
seat. The two main coalition members, National
Coalition Party (NCP) and Center Party, each lost one
seat. The NCP leadership can comfort itself in the
knowledge the NCP remains the most popular party in
Finland. The Center Party's poor showing in the last
few election cycles means party head Prime Minister
Vanhanen might face a leadership challenge in the next
party congress. The Social Democrats and Left
Alliance, apparently struggling to find a message a new
generation of leadership, each lost a seat. Overall,
the results offer no dramatic surprises and generally
follow trends seen across the last few election cycles.
As a result, the dynamics within the governing
coalition appear unlikely to change significantly.
End Summary.

Overview
--------------

2 (SBU) Finns turned out in low numbers for the latest
European Parliament (EP) elections, dropping to 40.2
percent from 2004's 41.1 percent. Similar to last
year's municipal elections (REF),the parties ran
campaigns primarily on national domestic issues, not
issues related to the Eropean Union; therefore, one
might take election esults as an "official poll" of
party standing to years before the next national
parliamentary eections. Thse results for Finland's
13 seats, ncluding percentage of overall votes, are as
folows:

Governing Coalition:
National Coalition Prty (NCP) - Lost 1, retaine 3
(23.2 percent)
Center Party (CP) - Lost 1, retained 3 (19 percent)
Green Party - Gained a second seat (12.4 percent)
Swedish People's Party (SPP) - Retained its single seat
(6.1 percent)

Opposition:
Social Democratic Party (SDP) - Lost 1, retained 2
(17.5 percent)
Left Alliance - Lost their single seat (5.9 percent)
True Finns/Christian Democrats - Gained two seats, one
for each party (14 percent)

Winners: True Finns and Greens
--------------


3. (SBU) The populist and Euro-skeptic True Finns added
to their significant gains in last year's municipal
elections by taking their first seat in the EP. Party
leader Timo Soini was the top vote getter of the entire
election (130,000). Soini received those votes despite
declaring that he would not sit for a full term and
would return to run in the next Finnish parliamentary
elections in 2011. In meetings with Embassy staff,
Finnish analysts and journalists attributed the TF's
win to two things: the strength of Soini's personality,
and the fact that the TF offered the only choice for
Euro-skeptic voters. (NOTE: The Christian Democrats
(CD) and TF both benefited from their temporary
alliance (for the sole purpose of the EP elections),as
separately neither might have attained a seat, but the
CDs likely received the greater benefit from Soini's
popularity. END NOTE.)


4. (SBU) The Greens were the only member of the four-
party governing coalition to boast any gain. According
to analysts, the Greens benefitted from the perceived
strength of their slate of candidates, and the party's
transnational, social-justice-oriented platform
generally appeals to the pro-EU voters.

Losers: NCP, Center, the political left
--------------


5. (SBU) Though the two largest members of the
governing coalition - NCP and Center - each lost one
seat, the NCP's loss carries less of a sting. The
center-right NCP has been leading public opinion polls
for months, and some pre-election polling hinted at a

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possible fourth seat for the NCP; even with the loss of
one seat the NCP remains the most popular party in
Finland. On the other hand, the CP continued its poor
showings over the last several elections. Analysts
predicted that a significant CP loss would
significantly increase the chance that the CP would
remove Prime Minister Vanhanen's as leader in next
year's party congress. Remaining on par with NCP may
not constitute such a serious loss, but the strength of
Vanhanen's position remains uncertain.


6. (SBU) The parties of the left were by far the bigger
losers, as the SDP fell farther behind its main
competitors, NCP and CP, and the Left Alliance lost its
only seat. Analysts pointed to both parties'
difficulty finding a message that resonates with voters
(even in an economic downturn) and fielding a younger
generation of leaders. Certainly, the SDP's two
successful candidates are atypical for the party: Mitro
Repo (a defrocked Orthodox priest) ran under the SDP
banner but is not a member, and Liisa Jaakonsaari is
publicly pro-NATO.

Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) With losses for the political left and wins
for fringe parties, the Finnish elections echoed
results across the EU. The results offer no dramatic
surprises and generally follow trends seen across the
last few election cycles. As a result, the dynamics
within the governing coalition appear unlikely to
change significantly as a result of these elections.

BUTLER