SCENESETTER FOR CODEL TANNER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000182

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON MARR NATO OREP FI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL TANNER


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Embassy Helsinki welcomes you to
Finland. Your visit comes as we celebrate ninety years
of diplomatic relations with Finland. Those relations
are excellent. The Finnish government places high
importance on deepening transatlantic ties as it also
promotes a stronger role for the EU in supporting
global stability and security. The Finnish government
sees no conflict in pursuing its security interests
simultaneously through the EU, Nordic Defense
Cooperation and NATO's Partnership for Peace. Finland
maintains the option to pursue NATO membership, and as
the national debate continues regarding membership
Finland pursues greater interoperability with NATO
forces. Most Finnish peacekeepers are abroad in NATO-
led peacekeeping operations in the Balkans and
Afghanistan. In Afghanistan Finland has committed to
increases in troops, civilian trainers and development
assistance. Finnish officials offer a unique
perspective and expertise on their Russian neighbor.
Foreign Minister Stubb has urged the West to re-engage
with Russia as it undergoes a "complex transition" due
to the global economic downturn. END SUMMARY.

Political and Economic Overview
--------------


2. (SBU) This year we celebrate ninety years of
diplomatic relations, and those relations are
excellent. Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen and his
Cabinet share responsibility for implementation of
Finland's foreign policy with President Tarja Halonen.
PM Vanhanen leads a four-party center-right coalition
that has placed high importance on working through the
European Union, deepening its partnership with NATO and
strengthening transatlantic bonds. Finland holds
parliamentary elections in 2011 and presidential
elections in 2013.


3. (SBU) Finland's GDP growth slowed sharply towards
the end of 2008, and estimates project a contraction of
five percent in 2009. Other estimates project an
increase in unemployment, up to nine percent in 2009
from 6.4 percent last year. The 200-member Parliament
passed a supplemental budget this year, and the
Government of Finland (GoF) estimates the stimulative
impact of the current and supplementary budgets as
approximately three billion euros (or 1.7 percent of
GDP).

A broad concept of security
--------------


4. (SBU) The GoF devotes most defense spending to
Finland's territorial defense. It supports
approximately 700 troops in overseas operations, and
seeks a spending increase from 120M to 150M euros to
support those operations. Finland maintains
conscription. [NOTE: Defense Minister Hakamies has
stated publicly that the economic downturn might delay
implementation of proposed defense spending increases
(2 percent above inflation after 2011). END NOTE.]


5. (SBU) Beyond strictly military concerns, the GoF has
a broad concept of security that includes such threats
as international crises and conflicts, natural
disasters, climate change, terrorism and constraints on
energy access. In addressing those threats Finland
supports increased multilateral cooperation. FM Stubb
has said Finland wants a "strong UN, a strong EU, a
strong NATO ... and a strong OSCE." He does not see an
"either-or" choice in pursuing greater security
cooperation with NATO, the EU and Nordic countries.

Finland and NATO
--------------


6. (SBU) Finland has participated in NATO's Partnership
for Peace program (PfP) since 1994. In that time it
has increased interoperability with NATO forces and
participated in peacekeeping operations in Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Kosovo and Afghanistan. Most Finnish
peacekeepers serve in NATO-led operations.


7. (SBU) Current GoF policy holds that Finland
maintains the option to pursue NATO membership. A
review of successive GoF security policies reveals
increasingly positive assessments of NATO membership.
The GOF's 2009 defense and security white paper states
that "strong grounds" exist for joining NATO. It also
notes the importance of public support and political
consensus for any decision on membership. FM Stubb has
said the current government will not pursue membership,

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pointing to the need for continued public and
parliamentary debate. A slight majority of the populace
opposes membership.

Nordic Defense Cooperation
--------------


8. (SBU) Finland holds the chairmanship for Nordic
Defense Cooperation (NDC) in 2009. The GoF's goals
include launching Nordic Supportive Defense Structures
(NORDSUP) cooperation, and examining ways to support
development of Africa's crisis management resources.
Finland hosted Nordic Defense Ministers on May 12 and
discussed NDC, including possibilities for cooperation
in the High North. Finnish officials have positively,
if carefully, received former Norwegian FM Thorvald
Stoltenberg's independent report containing 13
proposals on NDC (presented to Nordic countries last
February). Finnish officials focus on practical areas
of cooperation like procurement, maintenance and
upgrading materiel, and view other proposals such as a
Nordic Solidarity declaration as more distant
prospects. In May DM Hakamies publicly voiced
reservations about Finland committing its Air Force to
patrol Iceland's air space, citing the cost as well as
political considerations in policing a NATO Member's
air space.

Comprehensive approach and Afghanistan
--------------


9. (SBU) Finland's participation in international
peacekeeping operations dates back to the Sinai in the
1950s. Today the Finns pursue a "comprehensive
approach" to international crisis management, seeking
to utilize all resources - military and civilian,
public and private - to best advantage. In describing
Finland's international efforts, GoF officials point to
participation in NATO nd UN-led operations as well as
the efforts of Nbel Laureate and former President
Martti Ahtisaari.


10. (SBU) Afghanistan, where Finland has provided
military, civilianand development assistance since
2002, presents n opportunity to demonstrate the
effectiveness of that comprehensive approach. Finland
contribute troops (110) to the Swedish-led Provincial
Recostruction Team in Mazar-e-Sharif, in the northern
province of Balkh. In February the Parliament aproved
a temporary doubling of troops to support upcoming
presidential elections. The GoF also has approved
increases in military and police trainers and
development assistance.

Russia and Finland
--------------


11. (SBU) Finland has a long border (800 miles) and
even longer history with Russia, including two wars
fought against the Soviet Union in the period 1939-

1944. Russia is Finland's largest trading partner, and
its primary energy supplier. Finnish officials have
carefully managed relations with its eastern neighbor,
in part by focusing on bilateral, largely economic,
issues. FM Stubb sees an opportunity in the "complex
transition" underway in Russia due to the global
economic downturn. In April the GoF issued its first
"Russia Action Plan," which seeks a straightforward
assessment of Russia's challenges and deficiencies as
it promotes stronger relations bilaterally and through
the EU. [NOTE: President Medvedev met with President
Halonen on April 20 and Prime Minister Putin will visit
Finland in late May. END NOTE.]

BUTLER