SCENESETTER FOR FOREIGN MINISTER STUBB'S VISIT TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000162

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2018
TAGS: FI MARR PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR FOREIGN MINISTER STUBB'S VISIT TO
WASHINGTON MAY 11, 2009

REF: A. (A) 09 HELSINKI 150

B. (B) 09 HELSINKI 151

Classified By: CDA Michael A. Butler for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Finnish Foreign Minister Stubb arrives in
Washington as the Finns enjoy considerable international
acclaim for their efforts in international crisis management,
not only as a result of their effective Chairmanship of the
OSCE last year, but also for the award of the Nobel Peace
Prize to former President Martti Ahtisaari. The Finns seek
ways to showcase their comprehensive civilian-military crisis
management policy, and Afghanistan provides a litmus test for
that approach. Generally the Government aims to maintain
current levels of international participation, though earlier
this year it approved increases on military, civilian and
development contributions in Afghanistan. Stubb also has
called for a re-thinking of Finland's and the West's
relations with Russia as their eastern neighbor undergoes
significant change driven by the global economic downturn.


2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED. Stubb's visit provides an
opportunity to thank the Finns for their important work in
Afghanistan, the Balkans, and most recently within the OSCE,
and to (1) encourage Finland to continue to play a
constructive role in promoting peace and security through
Euro-Atlantic and other international institutions; (2) urge
the Government to fill promised contributions and commit to
increased future military, civilian and development
assistance to Afghanistan; and (3) urge Finnish leaders to
publicly support a common U.S.-EU policy on Russia. Stubb is
spearheading Finland's campaign for a UN Security Council
Seat for 2013-14, and may seek to enlist our support. END
SUMMARY.

Political Overview
--------------


3. (SBU) Our relations with Finland are excellent. Prime
Minister Matti Vanhanen and his Cabinet share responsibility
for the implementation of Finnish foreign policy with
President Tarja Halonen. Vanhanen leads a center-right
governing coalition that has placed high importance on
working through the EU and on improving Finland,s
partnership with NATO and its overall relationship with the
United States. Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb hails from
the center-right cabinet member that most vocally supports
strong transatlantic ties. While Stubb does not hide his
support for Finland's eventual NATO membership, he publicly
hews to the GOF's policy that despite a "strong case"
favoring membership Finland will remain in the Partnership
for Peace during this government's tenure (ending in 2011).
(NOTE: President Halonen has ruled out seeking NATO
membership during her term, which ends in 2013. END NOTE.)
Stubb, as Chairman-in-Office in the OSCE, helped broker a
cease-fire in Georgia last August and - unusual for a Finnish
leader - condemned the action, albeit as OSCE Chair.

Comprehensive approach to crisis management
--------------


4. (C) Finnish participation in international peacekeeping
operations dates back to the Sinai in the 1950s. The Finns
describe their approach to international crisis management as
comprehensive, seeking to utilize all resources - civilian
and military, public and private - to best advantage. The
GOF maintains an international military presence in key
locations, including Afghanistan (110) and Kosovo (440),and
aims for an overall civilian participation abroad of 150.
The Finns' approach encounters considerable domestic
constraints. Owing to a deeply entrenched notion that in war
(including two against Russia during World War II) the Finns
have always stood alone, Finland devotes the vast majority of
military resources to territorial defense, with only a
relatively small amount for crisis management operations.
The GOF spends EUR 100M/year to support the roughly 700
troops abroad; it has proposed an increase of EUR 50M/year,
intended to maintain current levels.

Increasing in Afghanistan Comprehensively
--------------


5. (C) Afghanistan, where the Finns have provided military,
civilian and development assistance since 2002, presents the
Finns the opportunity to demonstrate their commitment to
their comprehensive approach. After a period of policy
deadlock, in early 2009 the GOF approved plans to temporarily
double its military contingent (to 210),located at the
Swedish-led PRT in Mazar-e-Sharif, in support of the upcoming

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presidential elections; to increase participation in
Operational Mentoring and Liaison Teams; and to double its
contribution of civilian police trainers to EUPOL (to 18-20).
Finland also will increase development assistance by 1
million euros per year, reaching EUR 16M/year by 2013. We
welcome those increases, though they are relatively modest
compared to the contributions of their Nordic neighbors,
particularly on the military side. Stubb likely would
acknowledge the political challenge within the GOF and the
Parliament in securing further military increases. In the
absence of additional military contributions, the Finland
should fill promised slots and exploit untapped civilian
expertise beyond police trainers, e.g., in building
government institutions.

A new approach to Russia
--------------


6. (C) Russia is Finland,s largest bilateral trading partner
and its primary energy supplier, and Finns are proud of the
way they have managed their relations with Russia through the
Cold War and up to the present day. That management
typically involves careful public statements by government
officials calculated not to provoke. Stubb wants to change
that style, and he spearheaded the GOF's adoption in April of
a "Russia Action Plan," a set of realistic guidelines to
govern relations with its neighbor (REF A). The Plan
recognizes the importance for Finland that Russia have an
open democracy, a modernizing economy and stable social
conditions, and it envisions cooperation without the usual
practice of sidestepping challenges and deficiencies on the
Russian side. Stubb does not limit his call for new thinking
to Finland, evidenced by his comments at the March 4
Transatlantic dinner in Brussels, seeing in Russia's ongoing
transition an opportunity for improving relations with the
West. (NOTE: President Medvedev made his first visit to
Finland in April (REF B),and met President Halonen (Stubb
met with Foreign Minister Lavrov). Prime Minister Putin
visits Finland later in May. END NOTE.)

Central role for the EU
--------------


7. (C) As the most public supporter of Euro-Atlantic
institutions in the GOF, Stubb also strongly supports the
EU's central role within Finland's foreign policy. The
Russia Action Plan calls for promotion of bilateral relations
as well as active development of the EU's policy towards
Russia. Having placed such importance on the EU, many Finns
have become critical of and frustrated with its performance.
Stubb has said that the EU's dependence on Russia for energy
provides leverage over Russia the EU has not utilized. The
Action Plan notes Russian frustration with, and interest in
exploiting, EU policy incoherence and internal differences.
GOF officials also have criticized the EU's lack of strategic
vision on Afghanistan, being more distracted at the highest
levels by mundane tasks like counting the number of civilian
experts.

BUTLER