FINLAND: STUBB PUSHES FOR NEW THINKING IN FIRST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000150

SIPDIS

EUR/NB FOR ALAN MELTZER, NSC FOR J.HOVENIER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS FI
SUBJECT: FINLAND: STUBB PUSHES FOR NEW THINKING IN FIRST
EVER "RUSSIA ACTION PLAN"

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Michael A. Butler for reasons 1.4(b) a
nd (d)


1. (C) Summary. Reflecting the influence of Foreign Minister
Stubb, who has called for Finland to move away from "old
phobias" and to abandon "empty and ritualistic rhetoric,"
Finland,s new Russia Action Plan seeks to create a
comprehensive, realistic and honest set of guidelines to
govern Finland,s relations with its large neighbor to the
east. Why a Russia Action Plan now? Finns increasingly view
Russia as a revived superpower, and many in the Finnish
Government seek a policy that pursues opportunities for
mutually beneficial cooperation without the usual practice of
sidestepping daunting challenges and deficiencies on the
Russian side. The result is a plan to engage Russia on a host
of policy issues, bilaterally and through the EU, while
maintaining an internal public-private dialogue to ensure
fresh thinking. End Summary.

Why a Russia Action Plan?
--------------


2. (U) On April 16 the Government of Finland (GoF) released
its first ever Russia Action Plan, establishing guidelines
for relations with is eastern neighbor. While Russia is
never far from the minds of Finnish policy makers, given the
shared history and 1300 km border as well as significant
energy and trade links, according to the GoF Russia's return
to the forefront in international politics prompted this
unprecedented treatment. According to the Plan, Finns
surmise that Russia expects the new U.S. Administration to
treat the "revived superpower" as a foreign policy equal, and
that Russia has stated a willingness to create a strategic
partnership with the U.S.


3. (C) In an April 22 meeting, the MFA's Russia Unit Director
Maimo Henriksson told Polchief that the Plan's form and
content largely reflects the thinking of Foreign Minister
Stubb. She said Stubb's intent was not to "break new ground"
in terms of policy, but to create a "comprehensive, realistic
and honest" set of guidelines. So, while the Plan addresses
the benefits of partnership and cooperation - territory in
which Finnish officials have historically been more
comfortable, at least rhetorically - it also criticizes
Russia, stating that in the "Georgia crisis" Russia did not
observe "internationally shared principles" and demonstrated
a readiness to use force to promote its own interests (with
no mention of the culpability of Georgia). It also refers to
human rights deficiencies and "integrated" corruption as
"major issues" in Russia. Henriksson added that an ad hoc
Russia Forum contained in the Plan (and to be led by the
Prime Minister) will provide an opportunity for a
public-private partnership to periodically assess and bring
new thinking to an evolving policy.

Objectives
--------------


4. (U) The Plan states Finland would welcome the development
of a "forthcoming, democratic and economically prosperous
Russia" that could cooperate with Finland and the EU more
closely. In realizing that goal, the GoF details a number of
objectives:

- Improve border-crossing and customs duty arrangements;

- Make less cumbersome visa issuance arrangements in both
countries;

- Focus on environmental issues related to the Baltic Sea
region - especially on the condition of the Gulf of Finland -
and on the effect of climate change on Nordic forests;

- Pursue Russia's participation in more international
judicial agreements; the GoF will seek to enhance cooperation
among justice, police, border security, customs and
immigration sectors;

- Foster greater bilateral cooperation through multi-cultural
forums (such as Finno-Ugric cooperation) and special regional
activities (such as social and health sector issues,
epidemics, nuclear safety, the St. Petersburg metropolitan
area).

Finnish-Russian Relations
--------------


5. (U) The GoF aims for an increase in economic interaction
in trade, investments, energy supply, real estate, innovation

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and leisure travel. (NOTE: In 2008 Russia ranked first
among Finland's trading partners with approximately 9% of
Finnish exports and 15% of Finnish imports. In 2008 Finland
spent almost 20 million euros on approximately 200 projects
directed at various regions in Russia covering
transportation, health/social welfare, energy, justice/home
affairs and environmental matters. END NOTE.) The Plan
identifies persistent concerns about Russian tariffs for
exported wood and increasing protectionist sentiment. In
addition, despite the extensive and long-standing political
and economic ties, the Plan identifies a need for greater
expertise on Russia in Finland, in both "predictive" and
analytical research, in particular in the energy and
innovation policy sectors.

Russia and the EU
--------------


6. (U) The Plan places considerable importance on a
"strategic partnership" between the EU and Russia. Such a
partnership would reflect certain realities of being
neighbors: the importance of continuing a political dialogue
and of cooperation on economic and free movement issues; and
a mutually dependent/beneficial relationship. While
acknowledging points of contention in EU-Russian relations,
the Plan states that "cooperation remains broad," in
particular on trade matters. Conditions exist for wider
cooperation, e.g., in security and crisis management policy.
The Plan states that strategic cooperation aims at free trade
and visa waiver arrangements. Finland supports EU policies
that encourage Russian cooperation, such as the Nordic
Dimension and Baltic Sea Strategies.

Reaction to Action Plan
--------------


7. (SBU) Media coverage was generally positive, and
Henriksson pointed to praise of the GoF's "straightforward"
treatment of relations with Russia. She also pointed to
President Medvedev's comment in an April 20 speech at the
University of Helsinki that Russia is "interested and
encouraged" by the GoF's adoption of a comprehensive program.
One Finnish parliamentarian publicly welcomed the Plan as a
noteworthy improvement over the Defense Minister's
articulation of Russia policy in 2007, describing Finland's
three greatest challenges as "Russia, Russia and Russia." A
prominent Russian affairs expert complained that the GoF
avoided the question of military alliances and Finland's
policies towards superpowers. One editorial criticized the
GoF for policy incoherence, given that the Russia Plan
extensively addresses the EU's central role while the its
recently issued EU policy mentions Russia a mere two times.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) While the Plan reflects a consensus in the GoF
regarding a comprehensive approach to its Russia policy, it
clearly reflects the intentions of FM Stubb. After Russia's
incursion into Georgia last year, Stubb spoke publicly
(albeit somewhat obliquely) about Finland's relationship with
its neighbor, speaking of the general need for Finns to shrug
of old phobias and for officials to abandon empty and
ritualistic rhetoric. The Plan represents a significant step
in that direction, considering its critical view of Russia's
incursion into Georgia and its human rights and corruption
problems. The Plan does not, however, address Finland's
relations with Russia in light of its security links, e.g.,
with NATO and the other Nordic countries. As for Stubb, he
practices what he preaches: with the launch of the Plan,
Stubb publicly complained that concluding agreements with the
Russians was easy, but "as for implementation, there is a
great discrepancy between talk and action in Russia."
President Halonen remains a practitioner of a more careful,
less critical approach, evident during Russian President
Medvedev's first visit to Finland April 20-21 (septel).
Finnish officials now have two models to chose from in
dealing with their Russian neighbor. End Comment.
BUTLER