FINLAND: STUBB PRESSES HARD FOR NATO

UNCLAS HELSINKI 000141

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV FI
SUBJECT: FINLAND: STUBB PRESSES HARD FOR NATO
MEMBERSHIP


1. At a well-attended NATO 60th anniversary event on
April 2 in Helsinki, Foreign Minister Stubb spoke
forcefully about the benefits of NATO membership.
Stubb stressed that he supported the Government of
Finland's (GOF) policy articulated in the recent
defense white paper, according to which while there
are "strong grounds" in favor of Finland's NATO
membership, currently there is insufficient public and
political support. He said that the GOF policy
requires evaluating NATO's development, which should
be done in open debate, not behind closed doors.
Stubb offered ten "NATO facts" as part of that debate,
many of which seek to allay common concerns of NATO
skeptics:

- NATO brings military benefit to the Member States.
- NATO's security guarantees are real.
- NATO is not a "remote terminal" for the U.S.
military through which unsuspecting allies are dragged
to wars on distant battlefields.
- NATO is an organization where civilians make the
decisions.
- NATO membership will not increase countries' risk of
terrorism.
- NATO membership does not overrule national autonomy.
- NATO does not force anyone to give up conscription.
- Nobody ends up in NATO, you apply to it.
- NATO membership would not change Finland's Russia
policy.
- Yes, NATO membership carries costs but benefits
accrue to Finland's security.


2. Stubb asserted that Finland's policies toward
Russia would not change due to NATO membership, nor
would Russia's toward Finland. He pointed to good
Finnish-Russian relations following Finland's 1995
entry into the EU. Another participant disputed
Stubb's assertion, arguing that Russia would change
its policy; the participant added that Moscow does not
send NATO-related messages without purpose, perhaps
making a reference to a Finnish Broadcasting Company
(YLE) interview March 28 with Yuli Kvitsinsky, deputy
chair of the Duma's foreign affairs committee, in
which Kvitsinsky said that Russia would mount a range
of military, political and economic "countermeasures"
if Finland joined NATO. [Note: GoF announced April 8
that Russian President Medvedev visits Finland April
20-21.]


3. Approximately 500 people attended the event,
organized by the Atlantic Council of Finland,
including parliamentarians and high-level government
officials. YLE ("the BBC of Finland") covered the
event on its website; the newspaper Demari and a few
smaller magazines also attended. While the event
included more NATO supporters than skeptics or
opponents, lively discussion addressed both views. In
particular, the question of Russia's possible response
engendered considerable debate.


4. COMMENT. Last August Stubb spoke favorably about
NATO in a public speech, causing a stir that forced
him to reassure parliamentarians that his words did
not signal a change in the government's policy to
maintain the "option" to join NATO. Last week Stubb
spoke even more emphatically in favor of NATO, but he
clearly learned a lesson, as he shrewdly based his
vocal contribution to an open debate on the GOF's
policy (and voiced explicit support for the existing
policy). Some Finns have complained to Embassy
officers that the "NATO debate" in Finland is based
more on emotion and outdated attitudes than fact.
Though modestly covered by the media, this event, and
in particular Stubb's contribution, helped foster a
fact-based debate (an MSP goal). We are coordinating
with other NATO Member State embassies, the MFA, think
tanks and the Atlantic Council on other events during
this anniversary year that will contribute to that
debate. END COMMENT.

BUTLER