DUELING STATEMENTS BY SENIOR CUBANS: "GOOD COP,

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000077

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS CU
SUBJECT: DUELING STATEMENTS BY SENIOR CUBANS: "GOOD COP,
BAD COP" OR IS ANYONE IN CHARGE HERE?

Classified By: CHG James L Williams for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: A "Reflexiones" piece by Fidel Castro
critical of President Obama on January 29 followed by more
laudatory statements by National Assembly president Ricardo
Alarcon two days later have gotten the local rumor mill spun
up again. The now extended travel of Raul Castro to Russia,
Angola and Algeria while first VP Machado traveled to Caracas
for the ALBA anniversary also has generated speculation on
the state of affairs within the senior ranks of the GOC. End
Summary


2. (C) Using traditional arguments, the "Reflexiones" piece
takes the President to task for supporting Israel and
therefore, according to Fidel, supporting genocide. More
strangely, however, the piece also quotes the President as
saying several things about the status of the Guantanamo
Naval Base and its relationship to US-Cuban relations, which
Fidel uses to attack U.S. Cuba policy, but which also appear
to be completely without foundation. While the Cuban regime,
and Fidel in particular, are masters at twisting the truth or
using it selectively to make a contentious point, they almost
never make up a propaganda blast like this one out of whole
cloth. This led some to speculate that others inside the GOC
who oppose any improvement in relations with the U.S. (and
Fidel could most certainly be included in that group if he is
still lucid) created the "Reflexiones" piece in order to
dampen enthusiasm for any steps toward improvement on the
Cuban side.


3. (C) Then came a press interview of Assembly President
Ricardo Alarcon, published in the official media, which
lauded President Obama as an intelligent and careful
politician, and said that he should be given space so that he
can make the right decision. This apparent rebuff of
statements made by Fidel himself generated immediate
speculation as to the GOC's intentions. Some thought it
could be a sort of "good cop, bad cop" routine designed to
force a policy statement from the new administration. Such
carefully orchestrated campaigns to influence public or
international opinion are so common that average Cubans
simply take them for granted.


4. (C) However, all of this took place concurrent with an
unusual travel schedule of senior officials, with Raul Castro
spending almost a full week in Russia and then traveling to
Angola and Algeria, at the same time that first VP Jose Ramon
Machado flew to Caracas for the ALBA 10th anniversary
celebration. This has led to further speculation about the
state of leadership in Cuba in general. The question being:
is anyone really in charge at the moment.


5. (C) COMMENT: We too were surprised by Fidel's comments.
The lawyer in him has traditionally made him cautious about
potential rebuttals even when he is making the most
outrageous comments. It is very unlike him to say something
false that can be checked. We do not believe that there is a
"good cop, bad cop" game being played here. Rather, we tend
to agree with those who believe that, absent some key
leaders, public statements are not being vetted as closely as
usual. While this implies some lack of control on the public
messaging side, we do not believe that the absence of
multiple senior leaders implies any true lack of control in
Cuba. Another VP, Juan Almeida, (there are total of seven)
has been acting as the public face of the GOC at home, and he
and others within the cupola of the regime are perfectly
capable of maintaining order and control through the
extensive security apparatus. It will be interesting to see
if the GOC's public diplomacy machinery runs smoothly through
the UN Human Rights Council's Universal Periodic Review and
the visit of Chilean President Bachelet, each of which could
generate challenges to the regime.
WILLIAMS