Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09HAVANA763
2009-12-21 20:32:00
CONFIDENTIAL
US Interests Section Havana
Cable title:  

CUBA PASSES UP YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO UNVEIL

Tags:  PREL PHUM PGOV ECON EAID CU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2170
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHUB #0763/01 3552032
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 212032Z DEC 09
FM USINT HAVANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5041
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RUEHHI/AMEMBASSY HANOI PRIORITY 0006
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCOGCA/COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY CU PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUCOWCV/CCGDSEVEN MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HAVANA 000763 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CCA AND WHA/PD
STATE FOR DRL CNEWLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV ECON EAID CU
SUBJECT: CUBA PASSES UP YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO UNVEIL

REFORMS

REF: A. HAVANA 623 (CHANGES NO SUBSTITUTE FOR SHAKEUPS)

B. HAVANA 477 ("RAUL CASTRO DELAYS PARTY CONGRESS")

C. HAVANA 631 ("THE GOC TELLS CUBANS TO FEND FOR
THEMSELVES")

D. HAVANA 666 ("PRIVATE FARMERS' MARKETS PUT ON
ALERT")

E. HAVANA 494 ("THE EXIT PERMIT")

F. HAVANA 736 ("HUMAN RIGHTS DAY TURNS VIOLENT")

G. HAVANA 739 ("GOC PROTEST HUMAN RIGHTS DAY EVENTS")

HAVANA 00000763 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Principal Office Jonathan Farrar for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HAVANA 000763

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CCA AND WHA/PD
STATE FOR DRL CNEWLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV ECON EAID CU
SUBJECT: CUBA PASSES UP YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO UNVEIL

REFORMS

REF: A. HAVANA 623 (CHANGES NO SUBSTITUTE FOR SHAKEUPS)

B. HAVANA 477 ("RAUL CASTRO DELAYS PARTY CONGRESS")

C. HAVANA 631 ("THE GOC TELLS CUBANS TO FEND FOR
THEMSELVES")

D. HAVANA 666 ("PRIVATE FARMERS' MARKETS PUT ON
ALERT")

E. HAVANA 494 ("THE EXIT PERMIT")

F. HAVANA 736 ("HUMAN RIGHTS DAY TURNS VIOLENT")

G. HAVANA 739 ("GOC PROTEST HUMAN RIGHTS DAY EVENTS")

HAVANA 00000763 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Principal Office Jonathan Farrar for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: Even with expectations already below sea
level, the National Assembly session that wrapped up on
December 20 was a considerable disappointment. In the
absence of a Communist Party Congress, or even a Conference,
some had hoped that the GOC would take advantage of the
legislative session to unfurl, or at least shed light on, the
political and economic reforms that have been expected since
Raul Castro became President in 2008. Instead, Castro lashed
out against the United States, politicized the arrest of an
Amcit and belittled civil society - all, he said, in response
to the Secretary's recent comments on Cuba. The National
Assembly also elected as vice-presidents a stern colleague
from Castro's rebel days and its top anti-corruption
official, and brought into the Cabinet a woman who led
violent mobs against Human Rights Day demonstrators two weeks
ago. End Summary.

NO INDICATION OF WHERE THE GOC IS TAKING THE COUNTRY
-------------- --------------


2. (C) By now most prognosticators of reform have lowered
their expectations. The inability of the all-powerful
Communist Party (CP) to convene its first Congress since
1997, or even a modest party conference, has dampened hopes
that President Raul Castro would match his talk of reforms
with action. (Refs A, B) The December 20 National Assembly
Session, and the days of committee work that preceded it,
were a potential venue to announce reforms. It represented

the largest gathering of government (GOC) notables since the
previous, and equally uneventful, Session on August 1, 2009,
and the last Session until the April 2010 Congress of the
Youth Communist League.

CHANGE IS NEEDED, BUT MAANA
--------------


3. (C) The lack of clear direction continues to grind the
country's management to a halt, and its economic system is
irremediably broken. On December 20, President Castro
himself acknowledged that a new model is necessary. He
devoted three quarters of his speech to the "economic
challenges" that are testing the "capacity of the country to
withstand" the situation. And yet, once again he punted.
Although Castro acknowledged that it was high time for these
major reforms, these would have to wait for more
deliberations. "They can't be rushed or improvised," he
stated. "Simply stated, we have no room for mistakes."

ITEMS KEEP ACCUMULATING ON CUBA'S WISH LIST
--------------


4. (C) By now, the list of options that are privately and
not-so-privately under discussion is getting long. Allowing
real estate ownership or land-use rights to foreigners was
one that many contacts cited as the most likely to come out
of the December Session. Other potential reforms include
changes to the ration system (Ref C),easing restrictions on
private sector activity (Ref D),private property ownership
(Septel),exit permits (Ref E),improving the investment
climate and rules, allowing mass internet access, and
eliminating the reviled dual currency system (Septel). The
last one became so loud that the National Assembly committees
had to go public to quash rumors that the ALBA's Sucre would
be adopted as currency in Cuba.

NO PLANS ENVISIONED UNTIL AFTER APRIL
--------------


5. (C) Conventional wisdom in Cuba has it that the GOC will
hold out on announcing more changes until it can convene a CP
Congress or, more likely, a Conference sometime after the
Communist Youth League Congress on April 3-4. Some long-time
observers think that there is little sense in the PC holding
a Congress as long as the old guard (which includes and is
led by the Castro brothers) remains active in politics.
Therefore, reforms are more likely to be rolled out quietly
throughout 2010, they say. However, Raul Castro's address to
the National Assembly, which included a return to five-year
plans starting in 2010, seems to hint once again that changes
will be announced in the near future. The bottom line is
that reforms continue to be discussed in the future rather
than present tense.

ESCALATING THE ANTI-US RHETORIC INSTEAD
--------------


6. (C) Reforms weren't in the cards at the National Assembly
Session, but U.S.-bashing was, and as stridently as it has
been since President Obama took office. Castro linked the
arrest of an Amcit (Septel) to our human rights programs (the
first time the GOC publicly acknowledged the arrest),and
criticized U.S. observance of Human Rights Day marches (Ref
F, G). He belittled Cuba's "civil society" (interestingly,
using that term) as enemies of the country. "Consider this
my response" to the Secretary's recent comments on Cuba, on
December 14, he declared. That said, Castro then claimed
continued interested in improving relations with the United
States.

OLD GUARD PROMOTED TO VICE PRESIDENCIES
--------------


7. (C) The most prominent promotion to Vice President is
Castro rebel colleague Ramiro Valdes, currently Cuba's
Computers and Informatics Minister and a member of the
Politburo. Valdes, 77, acquired notoriety as Interior
Minister in the late 60s and 80s. Once thought to have
fallen out with the Castros, he has been on a steady comeback
this year, brought back into a public government role and
featuring prominently as the GOC point man for frugality and
self-reliance (Ref C). Joining the gruff rebel commander as
Vice President is Cuba's Controller and anti-corruption
crusader, Gladys Bejerano. The 62 year-old, with a
reputation for humorlessness to rival Valdes', becomes Cuba's
highest-ranked woman. Relatively unknown, Bejerano was
promoted to the newly created position of Comptroller last
August. Bejerano and Valdes replace former Vice Presidents
Carlos Lage, who was spectacularly fired in March 2009, and
former rebel commander Juan Almeida, who died in October.
Cuba has five Vice Presidents.

REWARDS FOR ECONOMIC FAILURE AND LEADING MOBS
--------------


8. (C) Also promoted to the Council of Ministers, a governing
body akin to a Cabinet, was Economy and Planning Minister
Marino Murillo Jorge. The 48 year-old technocrat has been
doing his best impersonation of an economic czar, but has
little to show for his efforts (Septel). Another new
Councilmember is Youth Communist League First Secretary
Liudmila Alamo Duenas. According to press and eyewitness
reports, Alamo Duenas led her young communists in a fiery
counter-demonstration against Human Rights Day marchers on
December 10. Alamo Duenas was given the task of harassing
and following the Ladies in White (Damas de Blanco),a group
of spouses and relatives of prisoners of conscience, all the
way to the residence of founder Laura Pollan. In order to
enter the house, the Ladies were forced to run a gauntlet of
counterdemonstrators who rained blows on them. Both Murillo
and Alamo are substantially younger than their holdover
Cabinet colleagues.

NO ROOM FOR MISTAKES, NO TIME TO WASTE
--------------


9. (C) The lack of clarity about which reforms are under
consideration, how far they may go or when and how they may
be enacted is paralyzing government management at every
level, especially among the already risk-averse officials
that run virtually all economic activity on the island. The
quagmire is not helped by the few piecemeal plans that are
floated only to be shelved without explanation. The GOC's
timidity is perplexing, especially when there are successful
economic models like Vietnam that are equally disinclined to
surrender one-party control and political freedoms. The
longer that the GOC delays reforms that everybody knows it
must make, the less likely it will be for those reforms to
effectively pull Cuba out of its predicament.

FARRAR