SURVEY OF CUBANS ON SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000196


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREF PREL CU
SUBJECT: SURVEY OF CUBANS ON SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS
CONFIRMS TIMES ARE TOUGH

Classified By: CHIEF OF MISSION JONATHAN FARRAR FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (SBU) FROM MARCH 2-18, THE REFUGEE UNIT AT USINT
CONDUCTED A SURVEY OF 285 APPLICANTS FOR REFUGEE STATUS ABOUT
A WIDE RANGE OF SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN CUBA. THE SURVEY
WAS NOT SCIENTIFIC IN THAT THE RESPONDENTS WERE LIMITED TO
CUBANS ACTIVELY SEEKING TO LEAVE THE ISLAND. NONETHELESS, IN
THE SENSE THAT ANY CUBAN CAN APPLY FOR REFUGEE STATUS, MOST
OF THE APPLICANTS IN OUR SURVEY CAME FROM OUTSIDE HAVANA, WE
HAD A MIXTURE OF MALES AND FEMALES OF VARIOUS AGES, AND
PEOPLE FROM ALL EDUCATIONAL LEVELS AND RACES, THE SAMPLE IS
FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF ALL CUBANS AND GIVES SOME USEFUL
INSIGHTS INTO WHAT LIFE IS LIKE FOR MANY HERE. QUESTIONS,
ANSWERS, AND ANALYSIS FOLLOW.


2. (SBU) OF THE 285 RESPONDENTS, 90 WERE WOMEN, 166 WERE
MEN, AND 29 DID NOT ANSWER THE QUESTION ABOUT GENDER. ALL
WERE 21 OR OLDER, AND THE AVERAGE AGE OF RESPONDENTS WAS 44.
257 RESPONDENTS IDENTIFIED THEMSELVES AS EITHER WHITE OR
HISPANIC; 27 AS BLACK; AND 1 DID NOT ANSWER. 87 OF THE
RESPONDENTS ARE RESIDENTS OF HAVANA; 197 ARE RESIDENTS
OUTSIDE HAVANA, AND 1 DID NOT ANSWER.


3. (C) ON LEVELS OF EDUCATION, 31 REPORTED FINISHING BETWEEN
1ST-6TH GRADE; 91 BETWEEN 7TH-9TH GRADE; 109 BETWEEN 10-12TH
GRADE; 23 SAID THEY HAVE A TECHNICAL DEGREE; AND 30 CLAIMED
TO HAVE ATTENDED UNIVERSITY. COMMENT: 43% OF OUR RESPONDENTS
HAD A 9TH GRADE EDUCATION OR LOWER, WHICH RESTRICTS THEIR
EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS, AS MANY JOBS REQUIRE A 12TH GRADE
EDUCATION. THE EDUCATION OF MANY OF OUR APPLICANTS IS POOR,
EVEN FOR THOSE WHO HAVE A 12TH GRADE DIPLOMA. THIS IS
EVIDENT IN THEIR HANDWRITING, THEIR ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS IN
ORAL INTERVIEWS, AND THEIR ABILITY TO FILL OUT SIMPLE FORMS
AND FOLLOW SIMPLE INSTRUCTIONS. SCHOOLS TEACH USING THE ROTE
METHOD, WHERE MEMORIZATION IS KEY. QUALITY TEXTBOOKS AND
TEACHERS ARE LACKING, AND COMPUTERS ARE RARE. CUBAN YOUTH
ARE FALLING BEHIND IN EDUCATION, DESPITE ROSY CLAIMS BY THE
GOC ABOUT THE REVOLUTION'S TRIUMPH IN ERADICATING ILLITERACY.
END COMMENT.


4. (C) ON THE QUESTION OF OCCUPATION, 114 SAID THEY WORKED
ON THEIR OWN WITHOUT A LICENSE (NOTE: PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT IS
ILLEGAL WITHOUT A LICENSE),46 DID NOT ANSWER THE QUESTION,
38 SAID THEY WERE HOUSEWIVES, 27 SAID THEY WORKED FOR THE
STATE, 26 SAID THEY WERE UNEMPLOYED, 15 SAID THEY WORKED
PRIVATELY WITH A LICENSE, AND 15 SAID THEY WERE PENSIONERS.
COMMENT: IN A COUNTRY THAT CLAIMS EVERYONE IS ALLOWED TO
WORK, AND THE STATE IS THE MAIN EMPLOYER, ONLY 10 PERCENT OF
RESPONDENTS CLAIMED TO HAVE STATE JOBS. ALMOST HALF OF THOSE
WHO ANSWERED THE QUESTION SAID THEY WORKED ON THEIR OWN
WITHOUT A LICENSE, WHICH RUNS THE RISK OF FINES, HOUSE
SEARCHES, AND EVEN ARREST FOR "DANGEROUSNESS." OUR REFUGEE
APPLICANTS FREQUENTLY TELL US THAT THEY REFUSE MENIAL STATE
JOBS OFFERED TO THEM SUCH AS JANITOR OR CUTTING GRASS BECAUSE
THE PAY IS TOO LOW TO SURVIVE. EVEN DOCTORS ARE WILLING TO
WORK AS MAIDS OR GARDENERS FOR WESTERNERS BECAUSE THE PAY IS
HIGHER. MANY OF OUR APPLICANTS HAVE REQUESTED LICENSES TO
REPAIR SHOES, OR MAKE CANDY, OR DO ANY OF A NUMBER OF LIKE
JOBS, BUT THEIR REQUESTS ARE DENIED BY THE GOVERNMENT, SO
THEY DO THESE ACTIVITIES ANYWAY ILLEGALLY. WE INSTRUCTED
APPLICANTS TO CIRCLE ONLY ONE OCCUPATION, BUT WE REALIZED
AFTER THE SURVEY THAT MANY CUBANS WORK WITH THE STATE AND
WORK ON THE SIDE AS WELL, SO MANY OF THOSE WHO SAID THEY WORK
FOR THE STATE OR ON THE SIDE MAY BE DOING BOTH. END COMMENT.


5. (C) WE ASKED A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS IN THIS SURVEY TO GET
A SENSE OF WHETHER CUBANS WERE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE
"REFORMS" INTRODUCED BY RAUL CASTRO LAST YEAR, FOR INSTANCE,
A NEW LAW ALLOWING CUBANS TO PRIVATELY OWN A CELL PHONE. 22
OF 285 RESPONDENTS SAID THEY HAD A CELL PHONE; 263 SAID THEY
DID NOT. COMMENT: ALMOST EIGHT PERCENT OF THOSE SURVEYED
CURRENTLY HAVE CELL PHONES. ONE RESPONDENT NOTED, HOWEVER,
THAT HE HAD HAD A PRIVATE CELL PHONE BEFORE THE REFORMS WERE
ANNOUNCED. ASKED HOW THAT WAS POSSIBLE, AS IT WAS NOT LEGAL
FOR MOST CUBANS TO OWN PRIVATE CELL PHONES AT THAT TIME, HE
RESPONDED THAT THE PHONE WAS UNDER THE NAME OF A FOREIGN
FRIEND. THAT IS OFTEN HOW THINGS ARE DONE IN CUBA TO GET
AROUND LAWS AND REGULATIONS. SOME OTHER CUBANS MAY HAVE
OWNED CELL PHONES IN THE PAST PROVIDED BY THEIR EMPLOYER, THE
STATE. SO WE MUST CONCLUDE THAT AN UNKNOWN NUMBER OF
RESPONDENTS WHO SAID YES TO OWNING A CELL PHONE ARE NOT NEW
OWNERS BUT RATHER HAVE BEEN USING ONE CONNECTED TO THEIR
STATE JOB OR HAVE ONLY RECENTLY BECOME LEGALLY REGISTERED FOR
PRIVATE PHONES THEY WERE ALREADY USING UNDER SOMEONE ELSE'S
NAME. THIS TENDS ALSO TO CONFIRM WHAT WE UNDERSTOOD
ANECDOTALLY, THAT THE REFORMS ANNOUNCED BY RAUL CASTRO SIMPLY
MADE LEGAL VARIOUS PRACTICES THAT WERE ALREADY OCCURRING
ILLEGALLY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CUBANS, HOWEVER, CANNOT
AFFORD TO PAY MONTHLY CELL PHONE BILLS AND THUS HAVE NOT
BOTHERED TO TRY TO ACQUIRE A CELL PHONE. IN FACT, MANY
CUBANS STILL DO NOT HAVE HOME TELEPHONES. END COMMENT.


6. (C) SIMILARLY, WE ASKED WHETHER RESPONDENTS HAD STAYED IN
HOTELS IN CUBA, WHICH UNTIL LAST YEAR WERE RESERVED FOR
FOREIGNERS. 13 OF 285 SAID YES; 265 SAID NO; 7 DID NOT
RESPOND. COMMENT: A FEW OF THE 13 RESPONDENTS WHO SAID YES
INDICATED THEY HAD STAYED IN A HOTEL FOLLOWING THEIR
MARRIAGE. THE GOC OFFERS A SPECIAL DISCOUNT FOR
HONEYMOONERS. THESE RESPONSES INDICATE THAT IT IS A RARE
OCCASION INDEED WHEN A CUBAN STAYS AT A HOTEL, PRINCIPALLY
BECAUSE THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO SO. END COMMENT.


7. (C) ASKED WHETHER THEY HAD OBTAINED A COMPUTER SINCE
REFORMS LAST YEAR ALLOWED SUCH PURCHASES, 270 RESPONDENTS
SAID NO; EIGHT SAID YES; AND SEVEN DID NOT ANSWER. COMMENT:
LIKE CELL PHONES AND HOTELS, COMPUTERS ARE A LUXURY THAT THE
OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF CUBANS CANNOT AFFORD. SEVERAL OF
THE FEW WHO SAID YES INDICATED THAT THE FUNDS TO BUY THE
COMPUTER, OR THE COMPUTER ITSELF, CAME FROM RELATIVES IN THE
U.S. SOME OF THOSE WHO OWN COMPUTERS NOW HAD THEM BEFORE THE
REFORMS WERE ANNOUNCED, SO THEY ARE NOT REALLY "NEW" COMPUTER
OWNERS. END COMMENT.


8. (C) ASKED WHETHER THEY HAD TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF A REFORM
ALLOWING CUBANS TO PUT TO USE FALLOW LAND FOR AGRICULTURE, 25
SAID YES; 252 SAID NO; AND EIGHT DID NOT ANSWER. COMMENT:
THE LAW AS WRITTEN ALLOWS THOSE WHO ARE APPROVED TO PUT
FALLOW LAND TO USE FOR TEN YEARS, THEN IT REVERTS TO THE
GOVERNMENT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THOSE WHO ARE
GOING AHEAD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO OBTAIN THE
TOOLS, SEEDS, FERTILIZER, AND TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LABOR TO
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE CUBA'S DISMAL FOOD PRODUCTION. END
COMMENT.


9. (C) ASKED WHETHER THEY HAD TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF A REFORM
ALLOWING CUBANS TO GET LICENSES TO USE THEIR CARS AS PRIVATE
TAXIS, 268 SAID NO; NINE SAID YES, AND EIGHT DID NOT ANSWER.


10. (C) ASKED WHETHER THEY HAD RELATIVES IN THE UNITED
STATES, 239 OF 285 SAID YES; 44 SAID NO; AND TWO DID NOT
ANSWER. COMMENT: 84 PERCENT CLAIMED TO HAVE A RELATIVE IN
THE UNITED STATES, A VERY HIGH NUMBER INDEED.


11. (C) THOSE WHO HAVE RELATIVES IN THE UNITED STATES WERE
ASKED HOW MUCH MONTHLY THEY RECEIVED IN REMITTANCES FROM
THEM. (NOTE: THOSE WHO RECEIVE REMITTANCES THREE OR FOUR
TIMES A YEAR WERE ASKED TO CALCULATE A MONTHLY AVERAGE. END
NOTE.) 174 SAID THEY RECEIVED NO MONEY FROM THEIR RELATIVES;
61 SAID THEY RECEIVED BETWEEN 1-25 USD MONTHLY; 33 SAID THEY
RECEIVED BETWEEN 26-50 USD MONTHLY; 12 SAID THEY RECEIVED
BETWEEN 51-100 USD MONTHLY; AND TWO SAID THEY RECEIVED MORE
THAN 100 USD MONTHLY. TWO OTHER PERSONS DID NOT ANSWER.
COMMENT: INTERESTINGLY, MORE THAN HALF OF THOSE WHO HAVE
RELATIVES IN THE U.S. SAID THEY RECEIVED NOTHING IN
REMITTANCES. MOST WHO DO RECEIVE REMITTANCES RECEIVE NO MORE
THAN 25 USD PER MONTH. EVEN THAT SMALL AMOUNT, HOWEVER,
MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THEIR STANDARD OF LIVING. A
MONTHLY REMITTANCE OF USD 25 IS MORE THAN THE AVERAGE CUBAN
MONTHLY SALARY. END COMMENT.


12. (C) ASKED WHETHER THEY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MORE MONEY IN
THE FUTURE FROM RELATIVES IN THE U.S., GIVEN THE CHANGE IN
U.S. LAW ALLOWING GREATER REMITTANCES, 41 SAID YES; 221 SAID
NO; AND 23 DID NOT ANSWER.


13. (C) CUBA HAS TWO CURRENCIES, THE MONEDA NACIONAL PESO, IN
WHICH CUBAN WORKERS ARE PAID, AND THE CONVERTIBLE PESO, WHICH
FOREIGNERS OBTAIN FOR THEIR HARD CURRENCY AND WHICH ARE
NECESSARY TO BUY CERTAIN ITEMS IN STORES. ONE CONVERTIBLE
PESO EQUALS 24 MONEDA NACIONAL PESOS. A GROUP OF ACTIVISTS IN
CUBA BEGAN A CAMPAIGN CALLED "ONE CURRENCY" TO TRY TO
PRESSURE THE GOVERNMENT TO DO AWAY WITH THE CONVERTIBLE PESO,
COMPLAINING THAT CUBAN WORKERS CANNOT AFFORD ANYTHING FOR
SALE IN CONVERTIBLE PESOS. OUR SURVEY ASKED WHETHER
RESPONDENTS WERE IN FAVOR OF ONE OR TWO CURRENCIES. 253 OF
THE RESPONDENTS SAID ONE CURRENCY; 26 DID NOT ANSWER, AND 16
SAID THEY WERE IN FAVOR OF TWO CURRENCIES.


14. (C) ASKED WHETHER THE ECONOMY HAS IMPROVED, STAYED THE
SAME, OR WORSENED COMPARED TO LAST YEAR, 159 SAID IT HAD
WORSENED; 107 SAID IT WAS THE SAME; AND 11 SAID IT HAD
IMPROVED. EIGHT RESPONDENTS DID NOT ANSWER. COMMENT: CUBA
SUFFERED SEVERAL HURRICANES LAST AUGUST-SEPTEMBER CAUSING
LASTING DAMAGE TO THE ECONOMY. THE ECONOMY WAS WEAK EVEN
BEFORE THE HURRICANES, SO FOR 107 TO SAY IT IS THE SAME AS
LAST YEAR, AND 159 TO SAY IT IS WORSE, INDICATES THAT THE
OVERWHELMING PERCENTAGE OF CUBANS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
FRAGILE AND FALTERING CUBAN ECONOMY. END COMMENT.


15. (C) ASKED WHETHER THEY HAD ENOUGH RESOURCES TO AFFORD
"THE BASICS," 259 SAID NO; 23 SAID YES, AND THREE DID NOT
ANSWER. COMMENT: AGAIN, THIS RESPONSE DEMONSTRATES THE
DIFFICULT SITUATION OF THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF CUBAN
FAMILIES TO MAKE ENDS MEET. END COMMENT.


16. (C) ASKED IF THEY HAD ACCESS TO CONVERTIBLE PESOS, 236
SAID NO; 47 SAID YES; AND TWO DID NOT ANSWER. COMMENT: 83
PERCENT CLAIMED THEY DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO CONVERTIBLE PESOS
AND ALL THE THINGS CONVERTIBLE PESOS CAN BUY. THAT ONLY 47
SAID THEY HAVE ACCESS TO CONVERTIBLE PESOS, WHEN 108 CLAIMED
TO RECEIVE REMITTANCES, IS A VARIANCE WE CANNOT CLARIFY
WITHOUT ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS. IN A SENSE, AS POINTED OUT TO
US BY ONE RESPONDENT, ALL CUBANS HAVE ACCESS TO CONVERTIBLE
PESOS IN THAT THEY CAN EXCHANGE THEIR MONEDA NACIONAL FOR
CONVERTIBLE PESOS, BUT THE RESPONSES IN THIS SURVEY INDICATE
THAT MOST CUBANS CANNOT AFFORD TO DO SO. END COMMENT.


17. (C) ASKED WHETHER THEY HAD THE RESOURCES TO REPAIR THEIR
HOUSES, 280 SAID NO; THREE SAID YES; AND TWO DID NOT RESPOND.
COMMENT: CUBAN HOUSING HAS BEEN SLOWLY DETERIORATING FOR
DECADES. AS THE STATE IS THE OWNER OF HOUSING, CUBANS EXPECT
THE STATE TO PROVIDE UPKEEP. BUT THE STATE IS EITHER UNABLE
OR UNWILLING TO DO SO. OVER 98 PERCENT OF OUR RESPONDENTS
ARE APPARENTLY NOT ABLE TO REPAIR THEIR HOUSES THEMSELVES,
AND THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT PROVIDING MUCH HELP EITHER. WE
HAVE HEARD IN OUR DAILY REFUGEE INTERVIEWS THAT ON THE RARE
OCCASIONS WHEN THE GOVERNMENT DOES PROVIDE SOME SORT OF
HOUSING REPAIR ASSISTANCE, IT IS RESERVED FOR THOSE WITH
SUFFICIENT REVOLUTIONARY ZEAL. THOSE CONSIDERED
UNTRUSTWORTHY OR COUNTERREVOLUTIONARY GET NOTHING. END
COMMENT.


18. (C) ASKED IF THEY HAD ENOUGH RESOURCES TO BUY FOOD FOR
THE FAMILY, 259 SAID NO; 25 SAID YES, AND ONE DID NOT ANSWER.
COMMENT: 91 PERCENT OF THOSE SURVEYED COMPLAINED THEY CANNOT
BUY SUFFICIENT FOOD FOR THE FAMILY. ONE RESPONDENT TOLD US
"YES, I HAVE ENOUGH FOOD, BUT IT IS NOT ENOUGH." THIS
SEEMING CONTRADICTION APPEARS TO MEAN THAT THE FAMILY HAS
ENOUGH FOOD TO SURVIVE, BUT THEIR STOMACHS ARE NOT FULL. THE
LIBRETA (FOOD STAMP BOOK) PROVIDED BY THE GOVERNMENT MEETS
ONLY ABOUT HALF OF THE FOOD REQUIREMENTS OF A FAMILY EACH
MONTH. OUR RESPONDENTS SEEM TO BE INDICATING THAT THEIR
MEAGER SALARIES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO PURCHASE THE FOOD SHORTFALL
EACH MONTH. END SUMMARY.


19. (C) ASKED WHETHER THEY WERE ABLE TO OBTAIN MEDICATIONS
NEEDED FOR FAMILY MEMBERS, 187 SAID NO; 96 SAID YES; AND TWO
DID NOT ANSWER. COMMENT: A NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS INDICATED
THAT OVER THE COUNTER DRUGS ARE OBTAINABLE, BUT THAT
PRESCRIPTION DRUGS ARE OFTEN EITHER UNAVAILABLE OR
UNAFFORDABLE, OR BOTH. DESPITE THE GOVERNMENT'S CLAIM THAT
CUBANS HAVE WORLD CLASS MEDICAL CARE, 65 PERCENT OF OUR
RESPONDENTS DO NOT GET THE MEDICINE THEY NEED. END COMMENT.


20. (C) ASKED HOW MANY OCCUPANTS LIVE IN THEIR HOUSE, 73
REPLIED 1-3; 149 REPLIED 4-6; 43 REPLIED 7-9; AND 20 REPLIED
MORE THAN 10. THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF OCCUPANTS PER HOUSE WAS
5.1 IN OUR SURVEY. MEANWHILE, THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF BEDROOMS
WAS 2.4 PER HOUSEHOLD, SO THAT THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE/BEDROOM WAS 2.1 IN OUR SURVEY. COMMENT: MANY CUBANS
WHOM WE INTERVIEW COMPLAIN THAT THERE ARE TOO MANY PEOPLE
LIVING IN THEIR HOUSE, BUT THEY HAVE NO OPTION TO CHANGE
HOUSING AS THE STATE TIGHTLY CONTROLS THIS ACTIVITY. END
COMMENT.


21. (C) CONCLUSION: THE SURVEY DEMONSTRATES THAT MOST CUBANS
ARE BARELY SCRAPING BY UNDER VERY DIFFICULT ECONOMIC
CONDITIONS, AND THAT THE RECENT "REFORMS" ARE HAVING LITTLE
EFFECT ON EITHER THE ECONOMY OR THE STANDARD OF LIVING OF
MOST CUBANS. CONTINUING ECONOMIC HARDSHIP IS A MAJOR REASON
CUBANS FLEE THE ISLAND, BOTH VIA LEGAL AND ILLEGAL MIGRATION.
IN OUR DAILY REFUGEE INTERVIEWS, WE HEAR OVER AND OVER
APPLICANTS SAY THAT THERE IS NO FUTURE IN CUBA, THAT THEY
WANT OPPORTUNITIES TO STUDY AND WORK THAT HAVE BEEN DENIED
THEM HERE, AND THAT THEY WANT A BETTER LIFE FOR THEIR
CHILDREN. INTERESTINGLY, A NUMBER OF OUR RESPONDENTS FROM
OUTSIDE HAVANA CONFESSED IGNORANCE OF THE REFORMS ANNOUNCED
LAST YEAR, INDICATING THAT FOR THEM NOTHING HAS CHANGED.


FARRAR