Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09HANOI582
2009-06-23 10:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Hanoi
Cable title:  

BUILDING VIETNAM'S MILITARY DETERRENT WITH RUSSIAN

Tags:  MCAP PINR PINS PREL RS VM 
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P 231031Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9801
INFO ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY BEIJING 
AMEMBASSY CARACAS 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
CIA WASHINGTON DC
DIA WASHINGTON DC
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L HANOI 000582 


STATE FOR EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP, PM/RSAT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2019
TAGS: MCAP PINR PINS PREL RS VM
SUBJECT: BUILDING VIETNAM'S MILITARY DETERRENT WITH RUSSIAN
ARMS

Classified By: Political Counselor Brian Aggeler, E.O. 12958, Reasons:
1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L HANOI 000582


STATE FOR EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP, PM/RSAT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2019
TAGS: MCAP PINR PINS PREL RS VM
SUBJECT: BUILDING VIETNAM'S MILITARY DETERRENT WITH RUSSIAN
ARMS

Classified By: Political Counselor Brian Aggeler, E.O. 12958, Reasons:
1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Increasingly concerned about China's
assertive behavior in the South China Sea, the Government of
Vietnam (GVN) is pressing ahead with its military
modernization program. To better defend its territorial
claims and economic interests and present a more potent
deterrent to Chinese moves in the area, the GVN has
prioritized the acquisition of more potent air and naval
assets, including recent purchases of six Kilo class
submarines and twelve SU-30 fighter jets from Russia. End
summary.

Under the Sea
--------------


2. (U) Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg, Russia, will
build six Kilo class diesel-electric submarines for delivery
to Vietnam, the Russian business daily Kommersant reported on
April 27. In addition to submarines, reports indicate that
the Vietnamese Navy will receive new heavyweight torpedoes
and missiles. Sources in Rosoboronexport later confirmed
that Russia and Vietnam had been negotiating a $1.8 billion
deal for the delivery of the six Kilo-class submarines to the
Vietnamese navy for about a year. The South China Morning
Post added that the deal, if finalized, would complete a
two-decade effort by Hanoi to obtain Kilos.


3. (SBU) Professor Carl Thayer, a veteran Vietnam military
watcher with the Australian Defense Force Academy, confirmed
that Hanoi's desire to obtain Kilos dates back to before

1991. At the time, Vietnam was in talks with the Soviet
Union, which collapsed before a deal could be sealed. More
recently, Vietnamese naval chiefs sought second-hand Kilos
from Serbia. Hanoi reportedly acquired two mini-submarines
from North Korea in 1997, either for use in commando
operations or to start a development and training program,
but the Vietnamese People's Navy does not yet have any full
size submarines.


4. (SBU) Kilo class submarines, nicknamed "Black Holes" for
their ability to avoid detection, are among the quietest
diesel-electric submarines in the world. The submarine is
designed for anti-submarine warfare and anti-surface-ship
warfare, as well as for general reconnaissance and patrol

missions. The vessel has a displacement of 2,300 tons, a
maximum depth of 350 meters (1,200 feet),a range of 6,000
miles, and a crew of 57. It is equipped with six 533-mm
torpedo tubes. As of November 2006, 16 vessels were believed
to be in active service with the Russian Navy, with eight
more in reserve. Another 29 vessels are thought to have been
exported to China, India, Iran, Poland, Romania and Algeria.

Venezuela - No Subs for You!
--------------


5. (C) Several Russian press reports note that these
submarines were once planned for Venezuela, adding that
Russia's Rosoboronexport broke a contract with Venezuela to
supply the submarines after the April 18 meeting between the
South American country's president, Hugo Chavez, and U.S.
President Barack Obama, at which Chavez indicated his desire
to improve relations with the United States. (Comment:
Chavez's offer of friendship to President Obama is an
unlikely and rather thin public rationale for canceling a
$1.5 billion arms purchase, particularly given that
Venezuela is one of Russia's top five purchasers of military
equipment and weaponry. The sinking global oil market, and
Venezuela's growing economic dependence on its declining oil
production for revenue, are far more probable reasons for the
delay and shift. End Comment.)

Into the Wild Blue Yonder
--------------


6. (SBU) Less than one month later, a May 14 report from
Vedomosti newspaper, citing top aviation industry officials,
stated that Russia has also secured an order from Vietnam for
12 Su-30 MK2 fighter jets worth more than $500 million
dollars. The contract with Russian state arms exporters
Rosoboronexport was signed in January, according to the paper.


7. (SBU) While the supersonic fighter jets are to be sold
without on-board weapons, the MK2 version of the Su-30 has
electronics that enable the use of anti-ship missiles.
Contracts for missiles and other arms to equip the planes are
worth hundreds of millions of dollars more. No timeframe for
delivery has been confirmed; however, several press reports
indicated that the first of the aircraft are expected to be
delivered by the end of the year.


8. (C) Although Vietnam already has twelve Su-30s and 36 of
the similar Su-27 fighters, most of Vietnam's roughly 400
warplanes are 1960's era MiG-21 fighters and Su-22 ground
attack aircraft, making this purchase an important element in
Vietnam's efforts to upgrade its military forces. Developed
near the end of the Cold War, the 33-ton Su-30 is similar to
the U.S. F-15, but costs about a third less and is recognized
as one of the better fighters produced by Russia.

Russia: Happiness is a Warm Gun
--------------


9. (SBU) At the peak of ideological ties between Hanoi and
Moscow, the three-and-a-half decades between the mid-1950s
and 1990, the former Soviet Union flooded Vietnam with
concessionary loans and arms shipments. The USSR supplied
North, and later unified, Vietnam with 2,000 tanks, 1,700
armored vehicles, 7,000 pieces of artillery and mortars,
5,000 pieces of artillery, 158 missile complexes, 700
warplanes, 120 helicopters, and more than 100 naval vessels.
Some three quarters of the weaponry now used by the
Vietnamese army is Russian. After the Soviet Union's
collapse, its military aid was replaced by Russian commercial
armament sales because Vietnam's 450,000-strong army still
needs Russian arms and spare parts.


10. (SBU) In 1995, Vietnam bought six Su-27 Flanker fighter
jets for $150 million and in 1997 signed a contract for six
more planes and spare parts. Since then, Vietnam has taken
delivery of 12 Russian-built Su-30 multirole jet fighters,
and the recent purchase will bring that total to 24. Over
the past few years, Russia has also helped Vietnam beef up
its navy by providing it with corvettes and guided-missile
frigates. With the recent submarine and aircraft contracts,
Vietnam becomes one of Russia's five largest arms clients,
alongside India, Algeria, Venezuela and China.

Comment: Expanding Vietnam's Deterrent
--------------


11. (C) These recently-concluded arms deals fit a pattern
over the last ten to twenty years of Vietnam attempting to
modernize its military capabilities. However, the purchase
of the six submarines is particularly significant as they
will give Vietnam a quantum leap in anti-submarine and
anti-ship warfare capabilities and furnish Vietnam with the
most advanced undersea warfare capabilities in the whole of
Southeast Asia.


12. (C) Apart from an overall military modernization effort,
Vietnam is counting on the submarines to change the military
equation in the South China Sea. Vietnam and China generally
enjoy close relations, but the conflict over sovereignty,
territorial claims and maritime resources in the South China
Sea is a persistent source of tension. While Vietnam cannot
hope to match China in naval power, it can make any conflict
over disputed claims a complex and risky proposition for
China. The Kilo-class submarines represent an asymmetric
threat that could potentially deny Chinese control over the
area if they attempt to seize disputed islands by force.


13. (SBU) Vietnam's ability to afford its new purchases
remains to be seen. The recent economic downturn has had
less of an impact on Vietnam than on many of its neighbors,
but with a total defense budget speculated to be on the order
of $3.6 billion, it is unlikely the GVN has the resources to
pay for the new submarines outright. More likely, Vietnam
will pay Russia through a combination of barter arrangements
and some funds over time.


PALMER