BAUXITE CONTROVERSY PRODUCES LEADERSHIP DIVISIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HANOI 000537

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ESTH EMIN EINV SENV CM VM
SUBJECT: BAUXITE CONTROVERSY PRODUCES LEADERSHIP DIVISIONS,
VIBRANT NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEBATE

REF: A. HANOI 413

B. HANOI 417

C. HANOI 378

HANOI 00000537 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: CDA Virginia Palmer. Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The highly charged -- and unusually open --
public debate over plans to develop bauxite in the Central
Highlands has led to spirited discussions in the National
Assembly (NA),Vietnam's historically quiescent semiannual
legislature, with some deputies openly questioning government
decisions and demanding a larger role in reviewing policy.
The NA's question/answer sessions have received surprisingly
wide media coverage, perhaps reflecting the array of
prominent figures that continue to voice opposition -- from
General Vo Nguyen Giap to Catholic Cardinal Pham Minh Man.
Chinese involvement has given criticism of the project a
nationalist patina. Increasingly, there are also signals of
dissension within the upper ranks of Vietnam's collective
leadership; it is still early days, but well-connected
contacts assert that bauxite may become a proxy for
competition between the two leading contenders for CPV
primacy, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and Standing
Secretary Truong Tan Sang, in the run-up to the Eleventh
Party Congress in 2011.


2. (C) COMMENT: Although the National Assembly has become
more assertive in recent sessions, it ultimately gets
direction from the CPV. (This is particularly true of
national-level policy issues, and bauxite certainly now
qualifies as such.) The fact, then, that the National
Assembly, set to conclude on or around June 20, is reviewing
the bauxite projects suggests that important elements within
the Party may have serious second thoughts. A "compromise"
is likely in the works, reflecting Sang's April 26
pronouncement limiting development, for the moment, to two
pilot programs. And while no one pretends that the CPV won't
continue to dictate terms, the interesting point is that the
Party is acting as a consequence of public pressure and doing
so through a national legislature that, however undemocratic,
is increasingly hearing from constituents. END SUMMARY AND
COMMENT.

The General Strikes Again, as Do Others
--------------


3. (SBU) On May 20, Vietnam's revered military hero and
Party patriarch, General Vo Nguyen Giap, submitted another
forcefully worded letter to the CPV Central Committee and
Politburo reiterating his opposition to the government's
plans to mine bauxite in the Central Highlands (refs A and
B). The letter, Giap's third, commended the Politburo for
"listening to the opinions of former high-ranking Party
leaders and scientists" and for its decision to take into
account environmental factors and concerns about "national
security" (read: Chinese involvement). At the same time,
Giap registered his disappointment that the Politburo had
decided to continue with bauxite excavation, including
preparatory work already underway, even on a more limited
basis. Noting the potential impacts on Vietnam's
"environment, economy, culture, society, security, and
national defense," Giap urged the leadership to halt all
bauxite development -- what he termed a "no excavation yet
option" -- pending a thorough scientific and policy review.
Only this way, he concluded, could the Party avoid
"catastrophe."


4. (SBU) As before, news of Giap's letter -- and soon
enough, the text itself -- reverberated through Vietnam's
vibrant blog scene (ref. C),with nationalistic writers
echoing the General's concerns. Other influential voices,
such as the Archbishop of Saigon, Cardinal Pham Minh Man,
renewed their opposition to the bauxite projects, and their
views have also found their way onto the internet. As before
(ref A),while some blogs feature relatively technical
environmental and economic criticisms of the bauxite
projects, many more focus on the involvement of Chinese labor
and investment; these tend to have a sharply nationalistic
tone. (Note: The most exhaustive collection of commentary
can be found at www.bauxitevietnam.info/, which has recorded
over 1.3 million page views. End note.)

BaDinh-ology and the Press
--------------


5. (C) Some of Vietnam's more politically savvy blogs have
included tantalizing speculation about the impact of the

HANOI 00000537 002.2 OF 003


bauxite controversy on elite-level factional politics. Most
of the information is unverifiable; however, contacts with
senior CPV connections indicate that PM Nguyen Tan Dung has
come under pressure from within the Politburo. Dang Thanh
Tam (protect),who as Chairman of Saigon Invest Group
accompanied Dung to China in October 2008, affirmed that it
was the Prime Minister who gave the green light for bauxite
development to proceed following his meetings in Beijing.
Now, with criticism mounting, PM Dung has been forced to fend
off opposition, much of it coming from Dung's principal rival
on the Politburo, CPV Standing Secretary Truong Tan Sang,
according to Tam and others with elite-level Party ties. As
the well-connected son of former General Secretary Le Duan,
Le Kien Thanh (protect),explained, it is still too early for
Dung and Sang to be seen as jockeying openly for primacy in
advance of the 2011 Party Congress; in the meantime, though,
bauxite serves as a convenient proxy.


6. (C) While the blogs roil, the mainstream media has
surprisingly grown more nuanced in its coverage of the
bauxite controversy. And this, according to press contacts,
was in significant part due to an overt decision disseminated
from senior levels. VietnamNet journalist Buy Van (protect)
recounted how, initially, editorial staffs were expressly
told not to cover the more controversial aspects of the
bauxite projects. This order, he was given to understand,
came directly from the Chairman of the CPV Propaganda and
Education Commission, Politburo member To Huy Rua. Less than
two weeks later, however, Rua's decision was (apparently)
reversed, and editors were instructed to cover "both sides"
of the issue. The source of this new directive was Standing
Chairman Sang. (Comment: we could not corroborate this
account, but other media sources confirm that Sang,
ordinarily considered cautious, takes a close interest in the
press and will on occasion intervene directly in editorial
matters, though usually in a more conservative direction. In
any case, as the official in charge of day-to-day Party
operations, Sang would be one of a very few individuals in a
position to counteract a media directive put out by Rua. End
comment.)


7. (SBU) Some of the more enterprising reporters apparently
took the new marching orders as they were perhaps intended:
newspapers such as Tuoi Tre began to "balance" parochial
statements from local officials in the Central Highlands in
support of bauxite development with sober, technical
arguments explaining why the projects made little sense. A
critical report prepared by the Ministry of Natural Resources
and Environment detailing the potential environmental fallout
from bauxite development, was for example, given fairly wide
play. There was even coverage of General Giap's critical
comments on bauxite to PM Dung on the occasion of the 55th
anniversary of the French defeat at Dien Bien Phu.

Focus on the National Assembly
--------------


8. (SBU) This "balanced" approach has prevailed in the
media's coverage of the National Assembly's debate,
particularly after the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT)
submitted its May 23 report to the NA, as required by the
April 26 Politburo directive announced by Standing Secretary
Sang. As usual, VietnamNet's widely circulated e-newspaper
provided the most thorough coverage, but other outlets such
as Tuoi Tre also sought to contrast statements in favor of
bauxite development from Central Highland provinces Dac Nong
and Lam Dong with opinions from other deputies who oppose the
project on environmental, economic, or "national security"
grounds. Nguyen Minh Thuyet, a deputy from the Northwest
Highlands province of Lang Son, criticized the economic
rationale of the projects, in particular the high
infrastructure and energy costs. Danh Ut, from the Mekong
Delta province of Kien Giang, praised the MOIT report for
providing more details, but expressed concern that "red mud"
(a combination of iron, manganese, and soda discharged during
the production of alumina) might contaminate the Mekong river
system. Noting the significance of the projects, the
Chairman of the NA Committee for Defense and Security, Le
Quang Binh, called for a plenary debate on the bauxite
projects during the current NA session, scheduled to conclude
on or around June 20.


9. (C) Perhaps the most outspoken skeptic at the National
Assembly has been Duong Trung Quoc, a prominent historian and
"independent" (ie. non-Party) deputy from Dong Nai province
(not surprisingly, just downriver from the projects). In
comments carried live on Vietnam TV May 26, Quoc reiterated a

HANOI 00000537 003.2 OF 003


number of outstanding questions about the projects and
demanded to know why an issue of such pivotal importance was
only now coming to the NA's attention. (Note: Quoc's
statement can be seen at www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMQMe7USH8k.
End note.) Speaking with us June 3, Quoc (protect) said
that a number of deputies had conveyed their appreciation for
his remarks, but admitted that they were too timid to speak
out.


10. (C) Quoc affirmed that the National Assembly had assumed
a more important policy role in recent years under current NA
Chair Nguyen Phu Trong, continuing the even more dramatic
advances made under Trong's predecessor Nguyen Van An. Quoc
emphasized, however, that the National Assembly remains,
fundamentally, an institution that receives its guidance from
the Communist Party. (Note: 450 of the NA's 493 deputies are
Party members, and this number includes all 160 members of
the CPV Central Committee. End note.) The NA's evolution is
not, Quoc insisted, a move away from one-Party rule; rather,
it is a refinement, an attempt to institute an additional
layer of checks and balances within a CPV-dominated system.
Just as the state bureaucracies are assuming an increasing
degree of autonomy in the day-to-day management of
government, so too is the National Assembly taking on a
greater oversight role. But, ultimately, both branches, the
executive and the legislative, are dominated by the Party,
Quoc insisted.

The Bauxite Compromise, or Kicking the Can
--------------


11. (C) Quoc and other Embassy contacts, such as former MOIT
Minister Tran Xuan Gia (protect),predicted that whatever the
debate within the NA, the ultimate decision will confirm with
the Politburo's guidance, as outlined by Standing Secretary
Sang. In other words, the Tan Rai and Nhan Co developments
will continue as "pilot projects" in Lam Dong and Dak Nong,
respectively, but under stricter environmental, economic, and
foreign-labor guidelines promulgated by PM Dung through MOIT.
Decisions on further developments will be deferred until
after 2011, after the 11th Party Congress. In the meantime,
NA deputies have pledged to do their best to ensure that the
projects adhere to the guidelines. Whatever ensues, this
will be an interesting experiment in the CPV's vaunted
"intra-Party democracy."


12. (U) This cable was coordinated with ConGen HCMC.
PALMER