Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09HAMBURG1265
2009-10-08 15:22:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Consulate Hamburg
Cable title:  

Germany Elections: National Winners Not Celebrating in

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM GM 
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VZCZCXRO5856
RR RUEHIK
DE RUEHAG #1265 2811522
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 081522Z OCT 09
FM AMCONSUL HAMBURG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5435
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN
UNCLAS HAMBURG 001265 

State for EUR/AGS
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GM
SUBJECT: Germany Elections: National Winners Not Celebrating in
Northern Germany

REF: A) Hamburg 23, B) 09 Hamburg 00000

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION

UNCLAS HAMBURG 001265

State for EUR/AGS
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GM
SUBJECT: Germany Elections: National Winners Not Celebrating in
Northern Germany

REF: A) Hamburg 23, B) 09 Hamburg 00000

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION


1. (SBU) Reflecting the national trend, the primary election
result in northern Germany was an overall loss in votes and
influence for the Social Democratic Party (SPD) rather than strong
increases for the other parties. As reported (ref B),senior SPD
leaders remain concerned about the move of many party members to The
Left Party. All national parties except the SPD gained incremental
ground in northern Germany, but no single party can claim victory in
this election.


2. (SBU) Although the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) lost votes
in most of northern Germany (down 0.4 percent - 4.2 percent) except
for a slight gain in Bremen, they actually "won" four of the five
northern Germany states. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (M-V),
Chancellor Angela Merkel's home state, the CDU became the strongest
party for the first time in eleven years. Mirroring the national
trend, the SPD reported double-digit losses (from 11.3 percent -
15.2 percent) throughout the entire district. The Free Democratic
Party (FDP),although scoring well enough in Schleswig-Holstein's
state elections to form part of the "black/yellow" state coalition,
fared worse in all five northern German states than the national
average. Support for The Left Party increased in northern Germany;
it more than doubled in Bremen. Nevertheless, the only state where
The Left Party has any significant strength is, unsurprisingly, M-V.
Support for the right-wing extremist National Democratic Party
(NPD) in M-V dropped by more than fifty percent in comparison to the
2006 state election, and remains insignificant, despite its fringe
appeal.


3. (SBU) Comment: Northern Germany's final election figures showed
no real surprises, with most parties benefitting more from the SPD's
significant losses than from their own campaign and policy
strengths. If the SPD is to remain relevant in north Germany, it
must regroup and craft a message that appeals to its core
center-left constituency, after losing large numbers of its far
left-leaning members to The Left Party. The Left Party gained
strength in all northern German states, but it remains to be seen
whether -- other than in M-V -- there is any broad-based support for
its issues or positions. The CDU "won" some token new ground in M-V
and Bremen, but blazed no spectacular new trails. The Greens
performed best in their bastion of Hamburg, and only gained slightly
in most states (0.7 percent to 4.2 percent). In none of the five
northern states did the FDP perform as well as it did nationally
(best regional result was 10 percent in S-H, as opposed to 14.6
percent nationally). While the "black/yellow" coalition seems solid
enough on a national level, here in northern Germany it has not
gained momentum. END COMMENT.


4. (SBU) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin.

JOHNSON