Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09HAMBURG1190
2009-09-25 08:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Hamburg
Cable title:  

Bundestag Election, Northern Germany: Regional

Tags:  PGOV PREL GM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4214
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHAG #1190/01 2680825
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 250825Z SEP 09
FM AMCONSUL HAMBURG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAMBURG 001190 

State for EUR/AGS
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL 9/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: Bundestag Election, Northern Germany: Regional
Perspectives on the National Debate

REF: Berlin 1179

CLASSIFIED BY: CG Karen Johnson for reasons 1.5 b/d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAMBURG 001190

State for EUR/AGS
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL 9/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: Bundestag Election, Northern Germany: Regional
Perspectives on the National Debate

REF: Berlin 1179

CLASSIFIED BY: CG Karen Johnson for reasons 1.5 b/d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Heading into the September 27 national elections,
a majority of northern Germans appears to be leaning in favor of the
Christian Democratic Union (CDU),mirroring national opinion.
Hamburg's successful CDU/Greens government is viewed as a possible
role model for a national level coalition, but the Greens still lag
behind the Free Democratic Party, the CDU's preferred coalition
partner, just three days before national elections, and has very
little chance of pulling ahead. Due to an apparently unbridgeable
divide between the FDP and the Greens, a coalition between the CDU,
FDP and the Greens (the so-called "Jamaica coalition") appears
unrealistic. END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
Hamburg CDU Focuses on the Undecided
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) The Hamburg CDU decided to concentrate its heaviest
campaigning efforts during the time immediately prior to the
election, noting that most voters make up their minds in the last two
to three weeks before an election. Activity is expected to peak in
the last three days before the vote on September 27. According to
the CDU Hamburg State Party Manager, the CDU has focused its efforts
on swing voters since they will have the biggest impact on the
outcome. The CDU is following the same strategy in Lower Saxony.

-------------- --------------
The Greens: Campaigning on Hamburg Success
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Lower Saxony's Greens Caucus Leader Stefan Wenzel told
Consulate contacts that he believes the CDU would prefer a coalition
with the Greens to a renewed Grand Coalition with the SPD, citing the
relatively successful Black/Green coalition in Hamburg. (Comment:
The Greens, however, are currently polling at 11 percent, about two
points behind the FDP, the CDU/CSU's preferred coalition partner. It
is unlikely that the Greens will be able to draw more support than
the FDP. End comment.) Wenzel noted that the Greens perceive the
Hamburg coalition as a "reliable partnership of equals," with both
parties cooperating with mutual respect and accomplishing real

results.


4. (C) Asked about the views of Federal Greens Chairperson and
leftist frontrunner Juergen Trittin concerning a CDU/Greens
coalition, Wenzel responded that coalition talks would not fail
because Trittin's personal ambitions and interest in stepping out of
Joschka Fischer's shadow are incentives for him to engage in
coalition negotiations. He added that Federal Greens Chairperson
Renate Kuenast and Cem Oezdemir would also be prepared to enter into
a coalition with the CDU.

--------------
The FDP: At Odds with the Greens
--------------


5. (SBU) Lower Saxony FDP Caucus Leader Joerg Bode expressed the
view to Consulate personnel that it would be difficult to form a
national CDU/CSU-Greens coalition, but he rightly predicted that a
statement in favor of a coalition with the CDU would emerge from the
FDP party convention that was held on September 20. If a CDU/CSU-FDP
coalition emerges from the elections, Bode predicts that the
cooperation between the two parties will be smooth, as it has been in
Lower Saxony over the past six years. Bode stressed that the CDU and
FDP would likely succeed in budget consolidation without causing a
revolt on the streets.

-------------- --
SPD: "Caught in a Race It Cannot Win"
-------------- --


6. (C) SPD Hamburg Caucus Leader Michael Neumann acknowledged to
Consulate/Embassy officers in a recent meeting that the SPD is
"caught in a race it cannot win." Neumann noted that despite
contentious election topics such as the controversy over the proposed
permanent nuclear storage site in Gorleben or renewed calls to ban
the right-wing extremist National Democratic Party (NPD),SPD
chancellor candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier will not capitalize on
CDU/SPD differences. He stated that the SPD will inevitably be
fractured internally and subsequently shift to the left due to
personal ambitions within that wing, regardless of who wins this
election. Neumann lamented the lack of rational discourse on the
future course of the SPD, and predicted a move to the left would lose
centrist voters, while failing to regain the voters previously lost
to The Left.


7. (SBU) According to local CDU officials, the SPD party suffers
from several basic challenges, including: 1) lack of appealing
personalities, 2) lack of credibility, and 3) lack of competence.
Polls indicate that voters perceive the SPD more favorably than the
CDU only with regard to social justice issues; in all other
competence areas the CDU scored better (e.g. domestic security, labor
issues, and finances). The CDU believes that up to 30 percent of SPD
voters will consider voting for the CDU based solely on Chancellor
Merkel's personal popularity.

-------------- --------------
The Left: Running on an Anti-Establishment Platform
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Although strong pockets of leftist support do exist in
northern Germany, there has been little indication of any surge in
popular support. Rallies have clearly brought the party faithful
together, but the appeal has not expanded significantly beyond the
traditional constituencies. As in the national campaign, locally The
Left emphasizes increasing income disparities and throws blame for
the economic crisis at the feet of "the establishment." The Left is
already represented in the parliaments of Bremen, Hamburg,
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Lower Saxony. According to a Forsa poll
of September 19, the Left could receive up to 6 percent in the
upcoming Schleswig-Holstein vote and thereby enter the S-H parliament
for the first time. However, nothing expressed by any Consulate
contacts indicates a belief that The Left will gain much more
regionally than the percentage forecast in national polls.

--------------
The Extremist Right (NPD)
--------------


9. (SBU) Despite a well-publicized presence in northern Germany,
right-wing extremist parties, such as the neo-Nazi NPD, are not
considered a viable option. Political observers throughout the
region do not believe that any of these parties would even come close
to mustering the required 5 percent hurdle to enter the Bundestag.
In reality, if any of the right-wing extremist parties gain votes,
these will probably be "lost" as a percentage too small to factor
into the total party shares. This will lower the total required to
build a coalition for the more mainstream parties (reftel).

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


10. (SBU) Post's conversations with senior CDU, FDP, SPD and Greens
representatives suggest that this election cycle is likely to result
in a continuation of "business as usual," German-style. Some of
Merkel's remarks in her campaign rally underscore the continuing
importance of traditional German views: the relevance of social
market economic principles, their role as an anchor of German
stability, and the need to export these principles to the world. Her
emphasis on the ability of a strong chancellor to "set the course
right" implies that she sees her role -- and Germany's -- as a steady
rudder in a time of turmoil. Absent any last-minute surprises,
Merkel's personal popularity is likely to appeal to many voters in
northern Germany, and lead to the CDU's continued role as a senior
coalition partner. Regardless of which junior partner steps into the
coalition, the resulting government will continue to cooperate
closely with the United States, and work to enhance German-American
ties. End comment.


11. (SBU): This message has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin.

JOHNSON