DAS ROBINSON HIGHLIGHTS NEED TO SUPPORT DEMOCRATIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 GUATEMALA 000518

SIPDIS

DEPT PLS PASS TO USAID/LAC - K. SEIFERT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SNAR PINR ELAB KDEM GT
SUBJECT: DAS ROBINSON HIGHLIGHTS NEED TO SUPPORT DEMOCRATIC
INSTITUTIONS IN WAKE OF GUATEMALA'S ROSENBERG SCANDAL

REF: A. GUATEMALA 453

B. GUATEMALA 473

Classified By: Acting Pol/Econ Couns Brian Harris for Reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d)


1. (C) Summary: During his May 18 visit to Guatemala, WHA
Deputy Assistant Secretary Robinson underscored U.S. support
for CICIG's investigation into the assassinations of
businessman Khalil Musa and his Amcit daughter Marjorie, and
lawyer Rodrigo Rosenberg. He urged his interlocutors to
de-politicze and support an impartial investigation and take
advantage of the political crisis to pass legislation to
strengthen democratic institutions and improve transparency.
President Colom, Vice President Espada, President of Congress
Alejos, and private sector and civil society leaders all
expressed support for CICIG's investigation and agreed on the
importance of resolving the murders. Robinson's visit was
well received and underscored U.S. support for the stability
of Guatemala's democratic institutions. Political pressure
for President Colom to step down has declined significantly
since DAS Robinson's visit. In a meeting with the Ministries
of Economy and Labor, DAS Robinson highlighted the importance
of addressing the AFL-CIO's labor complaint and noted our
continued support for Pathways to Prosperity. End Summary.


Meeting with President Colom
--------------


2. (C) WHA DAS David Robinson met with President Colom
(accompanied by Vice President Espada and Foreign Minister
Rodas) to discuss the Rosenberg case and the political crisis
caused by Rosenberg's allegations (ref A). President Colom
thanked DAS Robinson several times for his visit and noted
how his close personal relationship with the Ambassador
enabled him to rely on the U.S. government for political
advice. Colom felt well supported by the United States. He
underscored his commitment to democracy and the rule of law
and said he wanted to start a dialogue with opposition groups
to reach consensus on national priorities.


3. (C) Colom categorically denied the allegations made in
Rosenberg's tape and written declaration, noting that "I know
I'm innocent and the majority of Guatemalans know I'm
innocent." Colom characterized Rosenberg's accusation as the
greatest challenge of his life and maintained that it was
part of a conspiracy by various enemies to destabilize his
government. He referred to a chain of events set in motion
the week of March 25 when the killing of two public bus
drivers resulted in a paralysis in city traffic and
widespread fear. These killings were followed by the April
14 assassination of businessman Khalil Musa and his Amcit
daughter Marjorie. Musa was a pillar of the Guatemalan
business community, having served for over 40 years in
various business chambers and other civic organizations.
Musa's death had a deep emotional impact in the private
sector and brought home to Guatemala's business elite the
fear Guatemala's crime wave has already instilled in other
levels of society. Finally, the May 10 Rosenberg
assassination and his taped allegations caused an outpouring
of fear that was manifested in rallies calling for his
resignation the following week.


4. (C) Colom compared his enemies to "dark monsters in a
cave that you can hear but not see." He claimed that his
administration's policies were shining a light in the cave
and motivating his enemies to mobilize against him. He said
Qand motivating his enemies to mobilize against him. He said
that organized crime and narcotraffickers have been against
him since December 2008 when he replaced many senior military
officrs. Colom noted that following these changes,
Gatemala's security apparatus had "dramatically improved its
effectiveness in combating organized crime and
narcotrafficking." He claimed the business elite are against
him and his fiscal reform designed to increase government
revenues necessary to fortify rule of law institutions and
carry out important social programs. Finally, he noted that
various elements in Guatemala felt threatened by the prospect
of his wife (First Lady Sandra Torres de Colom) becoming
President, despite her never having declared her intent to be
a candidate. Colom claimed that her dedication to social
issues and improving opportunities for Guatemala's lower
socio-economic class upset those with a vested interest in
preserving the existing power structure and their ability to
manipulate state institutions to their benefit.


5. (C) Colom stressed that impunity is a "perversion" in

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Guatemalan society that must be addressed. Impunity is bred
by a long-standing culture of corruption and intensified by
the enormous resources of criminal organizations and
narcotraffickers. He anticipated that the fight against
narcotraffickers will be difficult but ultimately easier to
win than the fight against corruption which permeates all
levels of Guatemalan society.


6. (C) Colom went on to note that the "plot to destabilize
the government" had wider implications. Guatemala needs to
have a stable government to support El Salvador as it manages
its government transition. Foreign Minister Rodas
interjected noting that Guatemala wanted a strong political
alliance with the new Salvadoran government. Without a
strong alliance with Guatemala, Central America risked
polarization along ideological lines. For this reason it was
essential that Guatemala's democratic institutions be
strengthened in the wake of the Rosenberg scandal. The May
13 OAS declaration supporting the Colom government had been
very important to shoring up institutional stability in
Guatemala. Equally important were OAS calls to utilize CICIG
and existing institutions to investigate and solve the
murders of Rosenberg and the Musas.


7. (C) DAS Robinson said that the U.S. supports the
democratically elected government of Guatemala. He stressed
that the GOG, with CICIG's assistance, needed to solve the
case promptly, professionally, and impartially. He noted
that we share President Colom's views of the importance of a
strong Guatemala-El Salvador bilateral partnership. He urged
the Colom Administration to take advantage of the moment to
press for passage of pending legislation that will strengthen
rule of law institutions and improve transparency.


8. (C) The Ambassador underscored DAS Robinson's message of
support for the investigation and highlighted the need to
pass the pending law to improve the transparency of
Guatemala's Supreme Court nomination process. (Note: This
legislation was approved May 22. End note.)

Meeting with Minister of Government Gandara
--------------


9. (C) In DAS Robinson's meeting with Minister of Government
Gandara, the discussion veered from the immediate political
crisis to broader security challenges facing Guatemala.
Gandara recounted the historical institutional weaknesses
that have allowed crime to spiral out of control in
Guatemala. The military was reduced far below the levels
mandated in the 1996 Peace Accords, depriving Guatemala of
this critical security force. Guatemala's national police
force (PNC) was poorly trained and equipped. The lack of
adequate academic training meant that officers had to learn
their craft on the street and do not receive sufficient
training in the public safety, investigation, surveillance or
other skills. Only 500 investigators were employed to
support Guatemala's 20,000 police officers. The overwhelmed
investigative staff undermined PNC morale who knew that the
criminals they arrested, often at great personal risk, stood
little chance of going to jail.


10. (C) While core functions of his Ministry, such as
properly training and equipping police officers, had long
been neglected, the Ministry had also been saddled with
numerous mandates that distracted the Ministry from its main
public safety and security function. These functions should
Qpublic safety and security function. These functions should
be assigned to other ministries. However, the nature of
Guatemala's political system, with a new government every
four years, worked against efficiency and institutionality.
Gandara noted that every administration had its own vision of
the mission of the Ministry of Government and re-organized
its offices and re-prioritized budgets to suit their vision.
The lack of a consistent vision reduced the effectiveness of
the Ministry. Gandara stressed the need for successful
efforts, such as the USAID-funded community policing program
in Villa Nueva, to be expanded. Gandara is working to ramp
up anti-gang and anti-drug task forces.

Meeting with CICIG Deputy Commissioner
--------------


11. (C) DAS Robinson discussed the status of CICIG's
investigation with Deputy Commissioner Ana Garita. Garita
noted her concern over the highly politicized investigative
environment. She acknowledged that in any case involving
incendiary charges against a sitting president, avoiding
politics would be nearly impossible. However, CICIG and the

GUATEMALA 00000518 003 OF 004


international community has had to continue to press for an
impartial investigation free from political meddling. For
example, she said, President Colom should refrain from
meeting again with the Attorney General and ministries should
expedite cooperation on evidence requests and search
warrants. Garita noted that the circuitous bureaucratic
process is slowing down such requests and increasing the
possibility of corruption since they pass through numerous
hands.


12. (C) Garita stated that the Rosenberg investigation was
particularly complicated due to the number and prominence of
the individuals implicated. She noted that CICIG has been
under extraordinary pressure to produce rapid results, and
expressed concern that it would not be able to meet the
public's high expectations. DAS Robinson noted our
commitment to supporting CICIG's investigation and
underscored its key role in resolving the murders as well as
the political crisis. Garita thanked DAS Robinson for FBI
support and noted that U.S. support was critical from a
financial, political and technical point of view.


13. (C) Garita raised CICIG's request to open an office in
Miami to improve coordination with U.S. law enforcement and
improve security for personnel currently working in
Guatemala. DAS Robinson agreed that a Miami office made
sense for CICIG and said that the USG is reviewing privileges
and immunities issues for CICIG personnel.

Lunch with Private Sector and Civil Society Leaders
-------------- --------------


14. (C) In a wide-ranging lunch roundtable with private
sector and civil society leaders, DAS Robinson discussed the
current crisis and Guatemala's intractable security problem.
They complained about Guatemala's culture of impunity and
corruption, noting that Colom's government had not taken
sufficient steps to combat corruption and that the (then)
ongoing protests in front of the National Palace were a
manifestation of Guatemala's youth frustrated with the lack
of leadership and employment opportunities. University
students and other young, educated middle-class Guatemalans
made up the bulk of the "pro-justice" protesters.


15. (C) On the Rosenberg case, Roberto Ardon, Executive
Director of CACIF, Guatemala's most influential business
association, noted several obstacles to successful
resolution. Ministerial cooperation with CICIG was either
slow or non-existent. This could slow the investigation and
allow important leads and evidence to disappear in the
interim. The crisis had inflamed public opinion, and the
public was likely to demand quick results. Finally
regardless of the outcome, many sectors would question, the
credibility of the investigation. All of these factors would
combine to weaken the President politically but not take down
the government.


16. (C) Dionisio Gutierrez, a leading businessman,
highlighted the involvement of Banrural, a quasi-state bank,
in the crisis. He noted its close relationship with
Guatemala's increasingly powerful cooperatives and speculated
that its rapid rise to the number three bank in Guatemala in
terms of assets was highly improbable without involvement in
illicit activities. Jorge Briz, President of the Chamber of
Commerce and former Foreign Minister, agreed, noting that
something was not right at Banrural, but "that's the trouble
Qsomething was not right at Banrural, but "that's the trouble
with corruption, everyone knows where it is but it can never
be proven."


17. (C) Departing from the Rosenberg case, Frank LaRue, a
leading human rights activist and former Presidential Human
Rights Commissioner, noted the inability of the state to
successfully combat organized crime and narcotrafficking
which was quickly tightening its grip in various regions of
Guatemala. He said the Central America portion of the Merida
Initiative was critically important to helping Guatemala
combat organized crime, but needed to be re-thought. He said
the strategy seemed disjointed and appears to have been added
as an appendage to the more robust Mexico program. While
thanking the USG for the initiative, he worried about its
operational effectiveness in Central America.


18. (C) DAS Robinson noted the complexity of the challenge
and the importance of the private sector's support for CICIG
and its investigation. The Rosenberg tape had inflamed
public dismay with corruption but it was important not to
overly politicize the case in a way that undermines the

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Guatemala's democratic institutions. Rather, various sectors
of Guatemalan society should take advantage of the moment to
move forward with legislation to strengthen institutions and
improve transparency.

Meeting with President of Congress Alejos
--------------


19. (C) In a meeting with President of Congress Roberto
Alejos (brother of President Colom's Private Secretary
Gustavo Alejos, implicated in the Rosenberg tape),DAS
Robinson discussed the complex political challenges facing
Guatemala in the wake of the Rosenberg scandal. Alejos noted
with relief that protests held the previous day (May 17) had
been peaceful. However, 90,000 people took to the streets in
an unprecedented expression of popular will. The Rosenberg
tape had exposed the numerous social pressures in the
country. He said many sectors are afraid of that the
President's social democratic agenda will upset the current
power structure. Some are even concerned that government
giveaways (such as Guatemala's conditional cash transfer
program, Mi Familia Progresa) will lead to populist
authoritarianism in the mold of Chavez or Morales. None of
this is true, he said, but the President's party (UNE) had
made some mstakes to fuel such speculation such as when theUNE deputy bench leader announced that the President would
dissolve Congress if the fiscal reform law was not approved.

Meeting with the Ministries of Economy and Labor
-------------- ---


20. (C) DAS Robinson also met with Minister of Economy Ruben
Morales and Vice Minister of Labor Mario Illescas to discuss
the CAFTA labor complaint. DAS Robinson highlighted that the
complaint was serious and the USG and Congressional leaders
were focused on the case. Guatemala needed to actively work
to resolve the five cases cited in the complaint and address
the underlying systemic issues. Vice Minister Illescas
discussed progress on the Pedro Zamora murder case. Minister
Morales said he felt Guatemala was in a "good position" to
resolve the remaining cases and avoid formal consultations.


21. (C) Regarding Pathways to Prosperity, DAS Robinson noted
that the Obama Administration would continue to support the
effort and Secretary Clinton was leading our delegation to
the ministerial meeting in San Salvador. Minister Morales, a
strong supporter of Pathways, underscored the importance of
US support for the initiative in promoting the hemispheric
integration of economies and in ensuring that trade benefits
accrue to all levels of society. Morales confirmed he will
attend the meeting.


22. (C) Comment: DAS Robinson's visit came the day after
large protests both in opposition and in support of the Colom
Administration were held in Guatemala City. Robinson and the
Ambassador emphasized in meetings and to the press the need
to support a quick, thorough and impartial investigation and
take advantage of the situation to strengthen rule of law
institutions. The DAS Robinson visit and other USG and
foreign messages led Colom opponents to lower the intensity
of their calls for Colom to resign. Since the visit, a law
to improve transparency in the Supreme Court selection
process was passed (May 22) and demonstrations have tapered
off and political reverberations resulting from the case have
decreased in intensity.

Q

23. (U) WHA DAS David Robinson cleared this cable.
McFarland