GUATEMALA'S NEW LEFT: THE NEW REPUBLIC MOVEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 000406

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR PCHURCH
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2019
TAGS: PGOV SOCI ELAB ECON PHUM PREL KJUS KDEM GT
SUBJECT: GUATEMALA'S NEW LEFT: THE NEW REPUBLIC MOVEMENT
(PART 1 OF 3)

Classified By: Poloff Lucy Chang for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Amid growing insecurity, narco-related
violence, and an economic crisis, independent Congressman
Anibal Garcia has announced the formation of a new leftist
movement to promote reform and to represent traditionally
under-represented sectors of the population. Garcia hopes to
turn his nascent movement into a political party and to
participate in the 2011 national elections. The red-shirted
members of his "New Republic Movement," invoking Chavez
imagery and ideology, claim to seek to create "a more just
and transparent republic free of special privileges and
monopolies." While Garcia did not specifically mention any
ties to Venezuelan or Cuban groups and maintained that his
movement was privately funded by individuals, the movement's
rhetoric and imagery suggest Venezuelan influence. End
Summary.

Vision for Change
--------------

2. (C) On March 29, independent Congressman Anibal Garcia
officially announced the formation of a new leftist movement.
Press photos showed red-shirted activists standing in a row
-- an image that many here interpreted as associating the
movement with the Chavez government. Garcia asserted that
his "New Republic Movement" (MNR) opposes the current
socio-economic model and proposes a new, egalitarian state
without monopolies and special privileges reserved for the
few. In an April 6 meeting with poloff, Garcia, who was
elected to Congress as representative for the Encounter for
Guatemala (EG) party in November 2007, explained that he left
the party in October 2008 and became independent as a result
of fundamental differences of view with the party leadership.
(Comment: It is more likely that he left EG after failing
to wrestle the party away from EG leader and co-founder
Nineth Montenegro. End Comment).


3. (C) According to Garcia, EG did not share his vision for
more radical change. He said that Guatemalans are tired of
populist discourse without action and want new faces and new
ideas. While he did not criticize EG leader Nineth
Montenegro, with whom he co-founded the party in 2005, he
argued that EG is ¬ an agent for change8 or in a
position to meet the country,s challenges. He lamented that
after almost 25 years of democracy Guatemala is still facing
almost the same situation as before, or worse. He stressed
the need for change, particularly to combat criminal impunity
and political corruption and to protect workers, rights, but
noted that many sectors are resistant to change.


4. (C) Garcia opined that the country lacks direction,
leadership, and new ideas. Political parties are ¬
institutionalized8 or well defined, and politicians switch
from one party to another. He noted that at least 90 of the
current 158 members of Congress at one point were affiliated
with the National Advancement Party (PAN) and switched to
other political parties based on their personal interests.
(Note: PAN was considered a right-wing party in the 1990s.
The left wing characterized it as the big money, big business
party. End note.)


5. (C) Garcia hopes to turn his movement into a political
party to run in the 2011 national elections, and has already
initiated the process. Currently, he has a team of 45 young
national leaders who are engaged in grassroots mobilization
to build a support base throughout the country. When asked
Qto build a support base throughout the country. When asked
about funding, Garcia claimed that his movement is funded
solely by individual voluntary contributions and his
congressional salary, and that it is operating on a
shoestring budget with volunteers, minimal publicity, and a
provisional coordinating committee. Nonetheless, he said, it
is building momentum both in and outside the capital. (Note:
While he did not specifically mention Venezuela or Cuba, his
use of imagery invoking the Chavez government leads us to
wonder about possible Venezuelan or Cuban financing. End
note.)

Ties to Other Political Groups
--------------

6. (C) Garcia stated that his movement is not affiliated with
any political party in Guatemala, but has close ties to other
political groups in Latin America and shares its vision with
the Social Democratic Party in Germany, the Socialist Party
in Spain, and "similar parties in other countries." (He
refrained from specifically mentioning Cuba or Venezuela.)
He claimed that it also has close relations with Guatemalan

labor unions, including the Guatemalan Workers Union (UGT)
and the Workers Trade Union of Guatemala (UNSITRAGUA),San
Carlos University, and peasant leaders. Garcia characterized
his movement as "leftist, progressive, democratic, and
accessible." When asked how it differs from the Guatemalan
National Revolutionary Unity (URNG) with which he was
formerly affiliated, he asserted that the MNR has a &broader
vision8 and represents those who traditionally have not been
represented in the political process, such as labor unions
and the middle class. (Note: The real difference, as is
often the case in Guatemalan politics, is almost surely one
of personalities; i.e., Garcia gets to be in charge this
time.)

View of the U.S. and Obama
--------------

7. (U) Garcia, who celebrated President Obama,s victory
along with other Guatemalans, expressed confidence that
Obama,s leadership would enhance mutually beneficial
cooperation for economic and political development. He views
the Obama Administration as an opportunity for Latin America
and President Obama as &an extraordinary visionary8 who can
empathize and connect across boundaries. Garcia acknowledged
that immigration is a very complex issue driven by poverty at
home, but hoped that President Obama would review the issue.
Guatemalans, he said, expect the President to have a
different vision than his predecessor.


8. (U) Garcia criticized CAFTA-DR as an inequitable trade
agreement and expressed hope that it would be revised. He
claimed that Guatemala's fiscal system only benefits large
companies. For example, he argued that Q3 billion (USD 375
million) in exemptions under the Law of Maquilas benefit only
the maquila industry and that those exemptions constitute a
system of monopoly and privilege. Garcia asserted that in
many cases, as in the case of CAFTA-DR, it is not the free
trade agreement itself that is bad, but rather internal
country conditions that prevent workers from fully benefiting
from such agreements.

Comment
--------------

9. (C) Garcia is an aggressive lawyer who served as President
of the Law Students Association at San Carlos University, a
position which required patronage, political influence, and
good academic standing. In 1999, he unsuccessfully ran as
URNG congressional candidate for Sacatepequez. In 2007, he
successfully ran as an EG congressional candidate and took
office in January 2008. Despite his political ties,
aspirations, and claims of broad appeal, his movement is not
likely to gain much traction or to occupy any important
political space in Guatemala. It may attract a limited
following among the disenfranchised and disillusioned,
especially those disillusioned with the current feckless
administration and its seeming inability to control the
escalating violence and insecurity. Garcia's use of
Chavez-like imagery may prove to be a tactical mistake in
this fairly conservative country. That said, with the
current and previous governments challenged by poverty and
insecurity, at least some groups on the margins are hoping
for a populist alternative.
McFarland