BRIDGING WEATHER TO CLIMATE - OES DAS REIFSNYDER MEETINGS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GENEVA 000448

SIPDIS

STATE FOR IO, OES/EGC, OES/ENV, EEB
STATE PASS TO NOAA, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
STATE PASS TO OSTP AID/EGAT, NATIONAL SCIENCE COUNCIL, EPA
PARIS PASS TO AMCONSUL FOR MONACO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON SENV WMO
SUBJECT: BRIDGING WEATHER TO CLIMATE - OES DAS REIFSNYDER MEETINGS
WITH WMO ON LEAD-UP TO WCC3


1. SUMMARY: Dan Reifsnyder, OES Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Environment and Sustainable Development, met with the World
Meteorology Organization's (WMO) Secretary General Michel Jarraud to
discuss progress on the upcoming World Climate Conference 3 (WCC3).
In a far-reaching conversation Jarraud touched on the key message of
the WCC3, noted possible high-level participants, reported on the
state of Group Earth Observations (GEO) and opined on a future World
Environmental Organization. In another meeting, GEO Director
Achache commented on the future of GEO and its role in WCC3. END
SUMMARY

The World Climate Conference Three
--------------

2. At a meeting on May 13, WMO SG Jarraud noted that the previous
World Climate Conferences in 1979 and 1990 had resulted indirectly
in the IPCC and the UNFCCC. While the previous conferences had
covered science and policy respectively, Jarraud characterized the
goal of WCC3 as one of supporting decision-makers to manage risk
over a period of decades in the context of climate uncertainty. In
particular, Jarraud spoke of two key areas that would benefit from
the discussion and outcome of the WCC3: Disaster Prevention and
Adaptation. For example, decision makers in the area of food
security need to know if climate variability will affect the El Nino
cycle, and what that means for weather patterns in their region. A
robust support mechanism requires strengthened short-term, seasonal
and decadal forecasting and better dissemination of climate
information to all socio-economic sectors. "The tricky part," said
Jarraud, "is how to attract funding for Meteorological Services."
He made the point that, "Improved near-term forecasting could
benefit social services; money into Met services is an investment."


3. The private sector is also a key beneficiary of improved climate
services. Decision-makers in the private sector, in particular the
insurance and reinsurance industry, transportation and the
commodities sector, could all benefit from short-term climate
information. A more accessible mechanism for accessing short-term
climate information in commodities agriculture might help level the
playing field for developing countries and emerging economies
competing in global agricultural markets.


4. Jarraud emphasized that no country can manage alone the risks
associated with climate variability. He advocated for Regional
Climate Centers and Networks as well as organized Regional Climate
Outlook Fora to address both improved climate data collection and
sharing. Jarraud noted that currently the regional climate fora are
useful, but ad hoc and consequently their importance to the climate
change discussion is not recognized or utilized by decision-makers.
Reifsnyder urged Jarraud to make the importance of the Climate
Centers and Fora a key message of WCC3, and Jarraud concurred.


5. Regarding the level of representation expected at the WCC3,
Jarraud made it clear that he would be happy with 5 to 10 high-level
leaders. He said that, ideally, he would like representation from
an assortment of States such as a Sahalian, a small island
developing country and a land-locked country. Jarraud is selling
the WCC3 by reminding Heads of State that if they save their message
for COP 15 in Copenhagen, their voice will be one of hundreds,
whereas if they attend the WCC3 they will have a focused, attentive
global platform that precedes the COP. He is working his extensive
connections, and expects the President of Iceland and the Prince of
Orange (Netherlands) to attend. He is also fairly certain that a
member of the Spanish Royal family and the Prince of Monaco will
also participate. The Presidents of Burkino Faso and Mali have
indicated their interest, as well as a Chinese Vice-Premier with the
meteorology portfolio. He confessed that he is lacking at present
high-level representation from Latin America. Secretary General Ban
will open the WCC3.

Group Earth Observations
--------------

6. Jarraud noted that the Group Earth Observations (GEO) and the
Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) greatly benefited
from the advocacy of former NOAA Administrator Lautenbacher, and
feared that their future was uncertain in the absence of a strong
proponent. He thought GEO had raised the visibility of the need
for earth observations, but that it has not succeeded in generating
additional data and has so far fallen short of its goal of

GENEVA 00000448 002 OF 002


supporting new observations. Jarraud gave full credit to GEO for
spawning the WMO Observation Program, which he feels is successful.

A Global Environment Organization?
--------------

7. Discussion on the idea of a Global Environment Organization came
about as Jarraud noted that the WCC3 is not so much a WMO conference
as one that represents multi-stakeholders from the UN as well as
NGOs, the private sector and academia. Jarraud flatly stated that
he is not a proponent of a UN Environment Organization. He
explained that, in thinking about the challenge of coordinating UN
organizations he characterizes each of them - FAO, WHO, UNESCO, etc.
- as a "column." The challenge of UN coordination, he says, is a
"matrix managing problem that would not be solved by changing the
topology of the problem; by exchanging columns for lines," as a
unified Global Environment Organization would do. He went on to say
that UN coordination would be better served by identifying the
weakest points and the programs that should be strengthened. He
noted that linking some of the multilateral environmental agreements
and having fewer secretariats would strengthen environmental
governance.


8. Still echoing the underlying theme of WCC3 as a conference for
decision-makers, Jarraud went on to opine that it is important to
separate the task of decision-making from the task of supporting the
decision-maker, i.e. the provider of the information; these areas
should be "complementary, but not overlapping." He gave the example
of the IPCC - a support group, which is not part of the UNFCCC - a
decision group, noting that had they been integrated climate
skeptics would have had a target; when, in fact, the separation has
allowed the IPCC to work with credibility and acclaim.

GEO Thoughts on WCC3
--------------

9. Reifsnyder also met with GEO Director, Jose Achache who noted
that without strong U.S. leadership GEO might eventually be dropped
in favor of GEOSS, which is seeing steady contributions from the EU
and, he predicted, "may become an EU/Africa/Chinese project."


10. Regarding the WCC3, Achache emphasized that the proposed
deliverable should reinforce GEO activities rather than duplicate
them. WCC3 is focusing on climate services at the regional and
near-term scale. Achache pointed to the need for shared data in
order to make more accurate seasonal data and questioned whether
many countries were willing to share data for regional forecasting.
In the absence of a better data stream, Achache questioned WMO's
ability to produce more accurate seasonal forecasting for
decision-makers. He went on to say, "Our capacity to predict 12
months ahead is probably as good as an economist's, but politicians
influence economics more than climate." Reifsnyder pointed out that
people understand every-day weather forecasting and even the
long-term climate predictions of the IPCC, but the WCC3's focus on
seasonal and near-term forecasting was necessary to bridge the gap
between weather and climate. He encouraged Achache to think in
terms of a seasonal climate information product - for example, a
regional climate almanac - that could be easily accessed and applied
locally by farmers and other decision-makers whose very reliance on
the product would reinforce funding for GEO and other climate
programs and, consequently, more accurate forecasting.

Comment
--------------

11. As SecGen Jarraud notes, WCC3 will be a WMO hosted event but is
entirely cross-cutting in nature. It will succeed if it attracts
high-level participants from multiple disciplines, not just met
services or environment ministers, although these may be in the
majority. Jarraud is also canny in his observation that Heads of
State/Government and other high-level reps have a golden opportunity
in WCC3 to get this message across because the field will be much
smaller than at the Copenhagen Climate Conference in December and
the timing - on the way to Copenhagen - will be auspicious.
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