BOTSWANA POLITICAL ROUND-UP JANUARY 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000098

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S, AF/RSA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM MASS BC
SUBJECT: BOTSWANA POLITICAL ROUND-UP JANUARY 2009


1. The following is a compilation of January 2009 political
highlights from Botswana, which did not feature in other post
reporting. This cable covers:

-IEC Prepares for October Elections
-Political Parties in Disarray
-Botswana-Zimbabwe Bilateral Meeting Scheduled
-Police, Military Budgets Frozen


IEC Prepares for October Polls
--------------

2. Botswana's Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) reports that
555,376 voters have already been registered ahead of the general
election planned for October 2009. According to IEC Director Mr.
Gabriel Seeletso, there are more voters registered now than for any
previous Botswana election, and the IEC has noticed a special
increase in the number of youth registered. However, Seeletso also
noted that the IEC has only achieved about 85% of its own voter
registration target for 2009. Registration for the general election
will close at the end of March, which leaves another two months for
the IEC to attempt to meet its target of registering 650,000 voters.
The IEC also announced that it has established 2,288 polling
stations internally and an additional 25 abroad.


3. According to Seeletso, the IEC has been holding a series of
meetings around Botswana to address candidates and ensure that they
are aware of their legal obligations. The IEC is also trying to
encourage all political parties to sign on to a draft "code of
conduct" for their campaign activities. However, currently only two
parties, the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and the Marx, Engels,
Lenin, and Stalin Movement (MELS, a tiny fringe party) have signed.
In a change from previous years, the IEC reports that over 74
politicians have registered to stand as independent candidates in
the 2009 general election. (Note: Most of these candidates are
politicians who failed to win primaries, but who feel their local
popularity is strong and they wish to contest without the backing of
their traditional party.)


4. Voter apathy has been a longstanding problem in Botswana, but
Mr. Seeletso believes it could be addressed if politicians would
better define their campaigns. He said citizens seem to lose
interest in voting because politicians do not address issues which
matter to them. Seeletso was confident that Botswana voters would
go to the polls in good numbers if politicians could improve their
outreach to voters. However, Seeletso also saw a ositive
development. In his opinion Batswana yoth are beginning to be more
involved in the 2009electionsthan they have been in the past.

Poliical Parties in Disarray
--------------

5. Botswana Democratic Party (DP): During the 2004 general
elections, the ruling BDP initiated a system of primaries, often
referred to in Setswana as "Di bulele ditswe." However, the primary
election process, in which party members from within a given
parliamentary constituency or local district vote to chose BDP
candidates for office has left many within the BDP unhappy. The BDP
held its primaries and chose its candidates for both parliament and
local councils before the end of 2008, so that the party would have
time to concentrate on general election campaigning in 2009.
However, the party is now facing a problem with disgruntled members
who after losing in the primaries, choose to turn against the party
and to stand as independent candidates. The Chief Executive Officer
of BDP, Comma Serema, has said that dealing with members who were
dissatisfied with their primary election outcomes has made it
difficult for BDP to move on and prepare for the general election.
The party's Central Committee is expected to meet in early February
to take a strong stand against BDP members who choose to run as
independents in the general election against BDP-sanctioned
candidates. Serema said however that BDP prospects for the general
election remain strong, as the party is reportedly making strong
inroads into the opposition strongholds that are mostly in
Botswana's urban areas. COMMENT: The high number of registered
independent candidates in 2009 has been interpreted by some
commentators as a sign of increased democratic participation in
Botswana. However, other analysts claim that the rising number of
independents simply shows that politicians are selfish and wish to
attain or retain office at any cost. Most independent candidates do
not articulate any particular policy or ideological platform.
Instead they campaign on their popularity/name recognition within
their community. END COMMENT.


6. Botswana National Front (BNF): Botswana's main opposition party,
the BNF, which currently holds 12 seats in Parliament, is in the
midst of disruptive internal leadership struggles. Many BNF members
are unhappy with the party's current leader, Otsweletse Moupo, and
they have called on him to resign. In a sign of his declining

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popularity, Moupo lost the BNF primary for his Gaborone West North
constituency to a junior party member. However, Moupo is trying
hard to stay in power and is trying to purge party members who
oppose him. Nehemia Modubule, the current BNF Member of Parliament
(MP) for Lobatse constituency, won the party's primary election in
2008, but was subsequently kicked out of the BNF for his opposition
to Moupo. Moupo also tried to oust Akanyang Magama, the party's
former Secretary General and current Gaborone South MP, but he took
the BNF to court and Botswana's High Court re-instated him both to
the party and as the BNF Parliamentary candidate for his
constituency for the October general election. (Note: After
ejecting Magama from the party, the BNF planned to re-run the
primary election his Gaborone South constituency and choose an
alternate candidate. End Note.) Newspaper reports indicate that
several other influential party members who had called for Moupo's
resignation have been kicked out of the party. It remains to be
seen whether Moupo or his opponents will retain control of the BNF
at the end of the ongoing "civil war," but it is clear that the
party will enter the 2009 general election in disarray.


7. Botswana Congress Party (BCP): The third party represented in
Botswana's Parliament is the BCP, which currently has only one MP,
Dumelang Saleshando, who represents Gaborone Central constituency.
Though the BCP remains smaller than the BNF, the BCP may be better
placed to challenge the BDP in October's general election. The BCP
is not suffering from the same internal strife as the BNF, and its
organizational structure is considered strong. However, the BCP
will only field candidates in just under half of the 57
Parliamentary constituencies in October.

Botswana and Zimbabwe Plan Bilateral Meeting
--------------

8. Minister of Defense, Justice and Security Ndelu Seretse
announced in late January that there are plans for a February 2009
meeting of the Botswana-Zimbabwe Joint Permanent Commission on
Defense and Security. At the meeting, the GOB plans to raise issues
including illegal border crossings and cross-border crimes.
COMMENT: Given the tensions between Botswana and Zimbabwe in recent
months, especially over the spurious allegation that Botswana
provided military training to MDC activists, this meeting should
provide a useful opportunity for both countries to improve
communications and reduce tensions. SADC's report on the
allegations made by Zimbabwe against Botswana is also expected in
late February, according to the GOB. Embassy contacts expect that
the report will fully repudiate Zimbabwe's allegations. END
COMMENT.

Police, Military to Freeze Recruitment in 2009
-------------- -

9. Both the Botswana Defense Force (BDF) and the Botswana Police
Service (BPS) announced in January that they would freeze
recruitment in 2009 as they expected tight budgets due to the impact
of the global financial crisis on Botswana. According to press
accounts, both the military and police will continue to do some
intake of new recruits, but only to replace current staff that have
resigned, retired, or died. Defense Minister Seretse also told the
press that the BDF will continue to assist the BPS with civil
policing, and said that this cooperation has helped Botswana fight
crime. COMMENT: The GOB released its FY2009-2010 budget on February
2 and revealed that within its 10.56 billion pula development
budget, the BDF will receive 500 million pula ($64.1 million),the
BPS 190 pula ($24.4 million) and the new intelligence service the
DISS has been authorized 200 million pula ($25.6 million). Some
commentators have complained that the DISS is growing too powerful,
noting that its budget is higher than the BPS. Post will report
more on budget matters septel. END COMMENT.


NOLAN