MFA'S THOUGHTS ON ZIMBABWE SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000847

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BC ZI
SUBJECT: MFA'S THOUGHTS ON ZIMBABWE SITUATION

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen J. Nolan, Reason 1.4(b)


1. (C) Summary: From Botswana's point of view, Zimbabwe's
Global Political Agreement (GPA) is deeply flawed and
unlikely to lead to any meaningul power sharing in the
foreseeable future, accoding to Ambassador Zibane Ntakhwana,
Africa and Asia Department Director in the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. Botswana has
been skeptical of the agreement since it was signed last
year, and ZANU-PF's recent harassment of Roy Bennett clearly
shows that ZANU-PF is not acting in good faith. Ntakhwana
described Botswana's current relations with Zimbabwe as poor,
although he said Gaborone maintains contact with several
ZANU-PF and security service leaders. SADC shows little sign
of taking on Mugabe, and Ntakhwana said South Africa under
President Zuma does not seem to be taking a harder line than
it did under Mbeki. End summary.

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GPA DEEPLY FLAWED
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2. (C) In a 20 October meeting with Poloff, Ntakhwana said
that seeking to resolve the political impasse in Zimbabwe
remains at the top of Botswana's foreign affairs agenda,
particularly given the extensive resources the GoB is forced
to spend on returning and caring for economic migrants from
its neighbor. However, Ntakhwana said the GoB does not think
the unity government that resulted from last year's GPA is
the answer. While hoping for the best, Ntakhwana said the
GoB has been skeptical of the agreement from the start, on
the premise that they never trusted that Mugabe and ZANU-PF
would treat the agreement in good faith. Given recent
events, particularly the prosecution of MDC leader Roy
Bennett, Ntakhwana thinks GoB skepticism was justified.

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RELATIONSHIP POOR, BUT LINES OF COMMUNICATION EXIST
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3. (C) Ntakhwana described current bilateral ties with
Zimbabwe as poor, stemming from President Khama's willingness
to publicly criticize Mugabe. Botswana's outspokenness is
what led to Zimbabwean allegations last year that the GoB was
providing paramilitary training to MDC cadres. Ntakhwana
said Botswana acceded to a SADC investigation that determined
that the allegations were "rubbish", but even though a report
was tabled at the September SADC Summit in Kinshasa, the
relationship remains poor.


4. (C) That said, Ntakhwana told Poloff that the GoB still
maintained ties to senior ZANU-PF leaders. He said ZDF
Commander Constantine Chiwenga is "someone we know quite
well," although Ntakhwana said he is a committed hardliner
and Mugabe loyalist. Other GoB contacts include State
Security Minister Sydney Sekeramayi ("a gentleman"),
Transport Minister Nicholas Goche, and CIO Director Happyton
Bonyongwe. Ntakhwana said Bonyongwe is actually quite
moderate, but said some of the guys under him are "tough
nuts."

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SADC DISAPPOINTING
QSADC DISAPPOINTING
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5. (C) Ntakhwana said SADC's response on Zimbabwe continues
to be disappointing, and he sees no change on the horizon.
Botswana has few allies in SADC when it comes to taking a
harder line on Zimbabwe, with only Tanzania, Mauritius, and
sometimes Malawi showing willingness to take a stand. As for
the rest, Ntakhwana said Namibia "is radical as ever", Angola
"has the same 'see no evil, hear no evil' approach it's
always had", and SADC chair Congo "is preoccupied with its

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own problems." Mozambique too has been a disappointment in
not leaning harder on Mugabe.


6. (C) Ntakhwana said the biggest disappointment, however, is
South Africa. Jacob Zuma, he noted, made very positive
noises about taking a tougher line on Zimbabwe before he was
elected, but since taking office in April, he has done
nothing drastically different than former President Mbeki.
Ntakhwana said South Africa's overarching focus on stability
hinders any initiative toward bold action, which is
disappointing since South Africa is the only country in the
region that can put the screws to Mugabe if it really wanted
to.

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LONG TERM WORRIES ABOUT POWER VACUUM
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7. (C) Asked about his thoughts on the ultimate resolution of
Zimbabwe's impasse, Ntakhwana said that while he hopes for
"divine intervention" in terms of Mugabe's departure from
office, he worries about the possibility of a power vacuum if
Mugabe dies unexpectedly. ZANU-PF has not sorted out its
succession debate, and the securocrats in the party and
military will ensure that their interests are protected after
Mugabe goes. Ntakhwana said that these securocrats are going
to need ironclad deals that protect them from prosecution for
war crimes (particularly "lunatics" like Air Force Commander
Perence Shiri) and provide them payoffs. That said, after
the prosecution of Charles Taylor, it is going to be very
difficult to get these guys to trust any guarantees.


8. (C) Ntakhwana also said he worries about the MDC's
capacity to govern in a post-Mugabe environment. When
looking at the party, Ntakhwana said many in the GoB have
serious doubts about the leadership qualities of Prime
Minister Tsvangirai, whom he said "is malleable, vacillates
too much, and is easily compromised." However, Ntakhwana
noted that the GoB thinks the party does have some other
strong leaders -- the GoB is very impressed with Finance
Minister Tendai Biti, as well as with Commerce Minister (and
MDC-Mutambara faction leader) Welshman Ncube.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Given recent events in Zimbabwe and the region, the
GoB's skepticism about both ZANU-PF's commitment to
powersharing and SADC's willingness to take on Mugabe ring
quite true. Of particular interest was Ntakhwana's admission
that the GoB maintains contact with senior Zimbabwean
securocrats despite poor bilateral ties. Given the
securocrats' current prominence and likely importance in a
post-Mugabe dispensation, Botswana's ties to them suggest
Gaborone could prove a valuable go-between if contact from
Washington needed to be established, particularly in a crisis
situation like Mugabe's sudden demise. End comment.
NOLAN