BOTSWANA: POLITICAL CONGRESSES THIS WEEKEND

UNCLAS GABORONE 000565

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/S, AF/RSA,

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM BC
SUBJECT: BOTSWANA: POLITICAL CONGRESSES THIS WEEKEND

1. The President's Day holiday, July 18 through 21, are days set
aside by Botswana's political parties for their annual congresses.
It is at these congresses that parties review their policies and

elect the executive committees that run the parties. The Botswana
Democratic Party (BDP) elects its executive committee every two
years while the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and the Botswana
National Front (BNF) do so every three years. The opposition BCP
and BNF have avoided holding their leadership elections in the same
year as the Botswana's general elections. One reason for this is
that the executive committee elections normally leave a rift in the
parties. So at this year's congresses the BCP and the BNF will only
concentrate on election strategy for the upcoming general elections
and review their policies. The ruling BDP, however, will also be
electing its executive committee. Some party members within the BDP
had tried without success to postpone the executive committee
elections until next year, as they fear that the BDP will be greatly
weakened by infighting going into the general elections in October.


2. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) goes to its congress in Kanye
a divided party. There are two main factions: the Jacob
Nkate/Mompati Merafhe faction and the Daniel Kwelagobe faction.
Each faction has drawn up a list of nominees for party leadership
positions. The Nkate/Merafhe faction is supporting the nomination
of Tebelelo Seretse, former chairperson of the BDP women's wing, as
the BDP chairperson. Seretse also enjoys the support of President
Khama. Daniel Kwelagobe, the BDP chairman is fighting retain his
position and he of course has significant support within the BDP,
although President Khama is clearly not supporting him in this race.
President Khama has gone on record to say that he does not have a
good working relationship with Kwelagobe. It remains to be seen
what Khama will do if Kwelagobe wins the chairmanship. Jacob Nkate,
the current BDP Secretary General, has hinted the Khama could resign
from the Presidency if Kwelagobe's faction wins control of the BDP
executive committee. However, Khama's resignation is not likely,
and the President himself has said publicly that he would work with
Kwelagobe.

3. COMMENT: All BDP leadership positions will be hotly contested at
this weekend's BDP Congress, and as a result the BDP may end up a
weaker and more divided party. The question to watch as the general
election approaches is how weak the ruling party has become. It is
still extremely unlikely that the BDP could lose the general
election, as the opposition parties are still very fractured, but
the BDP may win fewer constituencies than in the past, which would
have interesting consequences as the new Parliament is elected and
for the opposition parties in the future. END COMMENT.

Nolan