FACTIONAL TENSIONS WITHIN BDP INCREASE

UNCLAS GABORONE 000489

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM BC
SUBJECT: FACTIONAL TENSIONS WITHIN BDP INCREASE


1. Infighting between two factions of the ruling Botswana Democratic
Party (BDP) seems to be intensifying as the party's annual congress
nears. One faction is led by Vice President Mompati Merafe and
Education Minister Jacob Nkate, while the other faction is led by
BDP Chairman and former Minister Daniel Kwelagobe and Minerals,
Energy, and Water Minister P.H.K. Kedikilwe. President Khama is
believed to be closely aligned to the Merafhe faction, but he must
tread carefully as the Kwelagobe faction enjoys tremendous
grassroots support. The BDP congress is scheduled for July 18-21 in
the southern village of Kanye. At the party congress, the BDP's new
Central Committee will be elected and the party's manifesto will be
finalized ahead of Botswana's general election, which is expected to
be held in October 2009.


2. Though Botswana's general election is still four months away, the
BDP is holding rallies around the country to kick off the campaigns
of its various candidates for office. Some of these rallies have
become battlegrounds in the war of words between BDP factions. The
June 6 launch of the parliamentary campaign of Vice President
Mompati Merafhe in Mahalapye was (not surprisingly) dominated by the
Merafhe-Nkate faction of the BDP. President Ian Khama attended the
rally and used the event to publicly criticize current BDP Chairman
Daniel Kwelagobe, calling him "a self-seeking and power-hungry
politician." The ostensible reason for this remark is that Daniel
Kwelagobe (the current BDP Chairman and until recently a Minister in
Khama's government) has refused to unilaterally pass the
chairmanship of BDP to Merafhe at the up-coming party congress in
Kanye. President Khama has said that a gentleman's agreement was
struck in 2007 when Kwelagobe became party chair that Kwelagobe
would allow Merafhe to run unopposed and succeed him as party
Chairman in 2009. President Khama has announced that since
Kwelagobe has refused to honor the agreement regarding succession of
party leadership, Khama is instead promoting the idea of having a
woman take over the leadership of the BDP. Khama has thrown his
support to Tebelelo Seretse, the former chairperson of BDP women's
wing, for the office of Party Chairman.


3. After Khama's remarks June 6, Daniel Kwelagobe has responded by
telling the press and audiences at BDP events that he is simply
abiding by the democratic constitution of the BDP and seeks to have
an open and transparent election of new party Central Committee
members at the congress in July. Kwelagobe says his faction of the
BDP is defending intra-party democracy and promoting the party
constitution. He says that his faction does not intend to topple
Khama from the leadership of the party and the country. Kwelagobe's
supporters have even set up a special, separate campaign fund which
they provocatively named the "Fight for Democracy Fund." They claim
that the BDP is denying funding to Kwelagobe and others from his
faction, even when they are conducting official party business.


4. The rivalry between Khama and Kwelagobe increased in April 2009
after President Khama announced that he would not support "dual
roles" for party leaders (i.e. holding leadership positions in both
the party and government). President Khama told Cabinet members
that they would henceforth have to choose between seeking party
Central Committee positions in July and staying in cabinet. Daniel
Kwelagobe announced publicly that he would choose party office over
a government position, and he was immediately dropped from the
cabinet after his remarks. However, other cabinet members were
allowed to remain in both government and the Central Committee of
the party until BDP congress in July, at which point they were
expected to remain in government and drop out of the BDP Central
Committee.


5. COMMENT: The BDP seems to be divided right down the middle on
President Khama's unilateral assertion that women should be given a
chance to occupy senior positions on the Central Committee of the
party. The Merafhe/Nkate faction, which Khama supports, have
embraced the idea and support the directives that Khama issues in
support of it, while the powerful Kedikilwe/ Kwelagobe faction,
which enjoys the most grassroots support from BDP members, wants the
constitution of the party to be followed, even if that means that
men are more likely to be elected to party offices this July. There
will be a similar debate in Parliament this session as the chamber
takes up a proposal to add four additional "specially elected"
Members of Parliament (on top of the four existing special MP slots)
to increase women's representation in Parliament. Khama supporters
claim the proposal will increase womens' participation in politics,
but the opposition parties and some within BDP point out that the
eight specially elected MPs, whether male or female, will all be BDP
members and likely loyal to the Merafhe/Nkate faction. While the
proposed increase in special MP slots may help foster female
political representation, it will also add to the BDP majority in
Parliament. END COMMENT.

Nolan