BOTSWANA FM BRIEFS ON ZIM, MADAGASCAR, LESOTHO,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 GABORONE 000336

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S, AF/E
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
BRUSSELS FOR USEU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2019
TAGS: PREL EAID EFIN KN MA LT ZI BC
SUBJECT: BOTSWANA FM BRIEFS ON ZIM, MADAGASCAR, LESOTHO,
AND DPRK

REF: GABORONE 277

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen J. Nolan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Minister Skelemani invited a select
group of resident diplomats to a briefing at the Ministry on
April 24. Skelemani clarified recent press reports regarding
GOB financial assistance to Zimbabwe, explaining that the
only support Botswana could offer would be loan guarantees to
encourage local private lenders to finance business deals
between local entities and Zimbabwe. He also discussed the
April 22 visit to Botswana by deposed Madagascan President
Ravalomanana, who continues to ask for a SADC brigade to
restore him to power. Skelemani and the diplomats briefly
discussed the recent unrest in Lesotho, and the Foreign
Minister explained that Botswana intends to decline an
invitation for President Khama to visit North Korea. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) On April 24, Botswana's Foreign Minister Phandu
Skelemani invited a select group of resident Chiefs of
Mission for a briefing on Madagascar and Zimbabwe. Skelemani
was accompanied by his Permanent Secretary Samuel Outlule,
Deputy Permanent Secretary Sesara George, and various other
MFA officials. Japan, Britain, Germany, France, the European
Union and the United States attended. As always, Minister
Skelemani offered candid and colorful comments during the 90
minute meeting, reflecting the frustrations that he and the
GOB often feel with regard to the inner workings of both SADC
and the African Union. Though he called the meeting to
provide updates on Zimbabwe and Madagascar, he also raised
North Korea and responded to questions about the attack on
the Lesotho Prime Minister April 22.


ZIMBABWE
--------------

3. (C) Minister Skelemani opened the meeting with a
discussion about Zimbabwe. He noted that the local
newspapers (and Botswana opposition politicians) had
misconstrued the kind of assistance that the GOB plans to
provide. Skelemani proclaimed that "we don't have 500
million pula to give or lend to anyone" and said that any
budget support from Botswana to Zimbabwe was "completely out
of the question." Skelemani explained that the GOB has
talked to banks in Botswana and asked them to make available
up to 500 million pula (USD 68 million) in lines of credit
which can be used by Zimbabwe (presumably the government
and/or private companies-- Skelemani did not specify) to
purchase goods in Botswana. The GOB, per Skelemani, has told
the banks that they are confident that Zimbabwe will pay, but
has promised to cover any defaults. Skelemani then repeated
that "not one pula will be handed over to Zimbabwe,
especially after Central Bank Governor Gono has virtually
admitted to pinching funds from private accounts for
government use in the past." Skelemani said that Finance
Minister Biti seems to believe that Zimbabwe can use these
loan guarantees to source many inputs from Botswana, such as
inputs for factories. However, Skelemani himself seemed
doubtful, saying "what would they buy from us, leather, soda
ash, beef, diamonds"? Permanent Secretary Outlule said that
the Botswana Development Corporation (BDC, the GOB's
investment arm) is interested in finding joint ventures to
finance, and BOCCIM (the Botswana chamber of commerce) plans
to visit Harare soon to find areas of partnership. (Note:
The GOB issued a press statement on its loan guarantees for
Zimbabwe April 21. Full text of the statement was emailed to
AF/S. End Note.)


4. (C) Though Skelemani repeated his call from our last
briefing (reftel) for the diplomatic corps to re-engage with
Zimbabwe and encouraged visits by our governments to Harare
to assess the situation on the ground, he seemed troubled by
the continued farm occupations and said that "given this
chaos, I cannot sincerely ask anyone to give directly to
Zimbabwe." He noted that the GOZ had promised SADC members

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in Swaziland that the farm occupations were not new seizures
of land but rather old cases still playing out. However, the
GOB now knows that "this was not true." Skelemani said that
Deputy Prime Minister Mutambara has confirmed that new farm
invasions are underway, despite stated GOZ policy to the
contrary. Skelemani, ever the attorney, noted that the
unwillingness of the Zimbabwe security forces to put an end
to farm invasions raises serious questions about the GOZ's
willingness or ability to uphold the sanctity of commercial
contracts. He promised that the Botswana delegation which
visited Harare last week "delivered serious messages" about
the rule of law and sanctity of contracts, and emphasized
that the GOB still needs the GOZ to "help us help you."


5. (C) Botswana's Finance Minister Gaolathe is in Washington
for the World Bank and IMF meetings, and he and the rest of
the SADC committee will use the opportunity to put forward
the case for assisting Zimbabwe, Skelemani said. When the
Ambassadors asked about the status of plans to lobby in other
capitals to urge Zimbabwe aid, Skelemani explained that funds
simply were not available to engage in that sort of travel.
SADC has no pool to pay for this activity, he said, and
member states were reluctant to spend their own funds to
travel around lobbying for Zimbabwe.


6. (C) In response to a question from the British High
Commissioner, Minister Skelemani explained that the GOB had
never received any response from SADC confirming or refuting
Zimbabwe's allegations that Botswana had trained MDC
"militants." Botswana Defense Minister Seretse even wrote to
Swazi FM Dlamani (the troika chair) to ask for SADC's
decision on the matter, but to date no reply has been
received. Skelemani noted that the whole affair was simply
an attempt by the GOZ to "buy time" and distract SADC from
the real problems in Zimbabwe by making spurious allegations.
The Zimbabweans never cared about the result, Skelemani
opined, as the distraction technique worked when they needed
it.


MADAGASCAR
--------------

7. (C) Deposed Madagascan President Marc Ravalomanana visited
Botswana on April 21, accompanied by the Swazi Prime Minister
Dlamini. They met with President Khama and SADC Executive
Secretary Salomao. According to Skelemani, Ravalomanana
continues to repeat his plea that SADC should "give him a
brigade" and return him to power so he can "put things in
order." Ravalomanana insists that the ongoing demonstrations
in Antananarivo are indicative of the support he has on the
ground. Skelemani said that the GOB learned during the
meeting with Salomao that UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon
has allegedly sent a letter to "the disc jockey" inviting him
to a meeting in Brussels. (Note: Skelemani referred to
Rajoelina as "the disc jockey" through the entire meeting,
never once using his name.) Skelemani said that the letter
was written in French, and that the GOB has asked the SADC
Secretariat to send a letter to the UN to "express surprise"
and ask for an explanation. He questioned what the UN aims
to do by inviting Rajoelina to a meeting when SADC and the
African Union (AU) have agreed not to recognize those who
come to power by force.


8. (C) Minister Skelemani said that SADC has sent a team to
Madagascar to talk to Rajoelina and his soldiers and assess
the situation on the ground. He emphasized that SADC's aim
is to avoid bloodshed. Skelemani expected that the team
would return and report to the SADC Troika in the next week
or two, and that after that there would likely be a summit
for SADC members to consider the situation and discuss the
best way forward. Skelemani emphasized that the GOB (and
SADC) position remains clear: whenever there is an attempt to
take over a government by unconstitutional means, it must be
opposed. He said that SADC is reluctant to use force, but
could send in its brigade if left with no other choice. He
claimed that if SADC asked the UN and AU for permission to

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send in peacekeepers, they would support it. He emphasized
that the SADC team on the ground is supposed to be working
closely with the AU mediation team to ensure both
organizations are on the same page.


9. (C) The French Ambassador stated unequivocally that for
President Sarkozy, what happened in Madagascar was a coup.
She said that France is disturbed by the reports of increased
violence. However, she noted that it is impossible for
Ravalomanana to simply go back to the status quo ante, and
that negotiation is required to move forward. She explained
that a Contact Group has been formed that will have its first
meeting April 30 in Addis Ababa. The group will include the
President of the AU, Commissioner of the AU, AU Peace and
Security chair for the month, all permanent members of the
UNSC, all African members of the UNSC, the European Union,
the chair of the Francophonie, and SADC. The French
Ambassador also noted that there are two "strong
personalities" at play in Madagascar and no one wants to
lose. She said it was important to convince Ravalomanana
that the only way for him to return is via some type of
referendum or new elections. Foreign Minister Skelemani
replied that he had not heard previously of this new Contact
Group, but he expressed skepticism about its effectiveness.
He noted the group was large and diverse, and opined that a
group led by AU President Qadhafi "won't get anywhere."


LESOTHO
--------------

10. (C) The diplomats asked Minister Skelemani for the GOB's
views on the April 22 attempt on the life of the Lesotho
Prime Minister. Skelemani replied that he was aware of the
incident from the media, but had few details. He complained
that the Basotho, like the Ndebele, "are always quarelling
among themselves." (Note: Skelemani's wife is from Lesotho
and he is knowledgeable about the political scene there. End
Note.) He also noted that SADC had made some efforts to
train and "reorient" the Lesotho military and police after
previous unrest, but it seems not to have taken root.
Skelemani said that the incumbent Prime Minister is popular
and would win if challenged at the ballot box, so his
opponents are looking for another way to remove him. When
asked whether there would be any SADC reaction, Skelemani
said that any response must come from the Troika (currently
Swaziland, Mozambique, Angola) and quipped that those
countries are "not known for their speed." (Note: The
Foreign Ministry issued a press statement on April 24
condemning the assasination attempt in Lesotho and calling
for the criminals involved to be brought to justice. Full
text of the press release was emailed to AF/S on April 27.
End Note.)


DPRK
--------------

11. (C) North Korea recently invited President Khama to pay
an official visit, according to Foreign Minister Skelemani.
However, the GOB plans to politely decline the invitation.
Skelemani quipped that "Botswana wants friendly relations
with everybody, but North Korea doesn't fall into the
category of 'everybody' right now." He said that "they are
rogues and we don't approve of their actions."


COMMENT
--------------

12. (C) Comment: Though Botswana continues to advocate for
increased international cooperation with Zimbabwe, in support
of the official SADC position, it is clear that Botswana
realizes full well that the GOZ is not yet ready to recieve
direct budget support from donors. The initial plans for a
SADC committee to lobby donor nations on Zimbabwe's behalf
has been scaled back to more realistic proportion, mostly due
to budget concerns, but perhaps in part because Botswana and
others realized the SADC effort was premature and not likely

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to succeed. Minister Skelemani (a lawyer by training and
former Attorney General of Botswana) is clearly troubled by
signs that the Zimbabwe unity government has not fully
embraced the rule of law, as evidenced by the continuing
harassment of farmers and attempts to seize land by ZANU-PF
officials. He commented several times during the briefing
that he was "astonished" that Zimbabwe's police and military
could stand by and let a few rogue individuals carry out land
invasions, in opposition to Zimbabwe's laws and stated
government policy. The GOB has taken a pragmatic position
that support for the unity government is the best hope to
bring change to Zimbabwe, but they have made this decision
with open eyes and some distaste. Though Botswana will be
asking the international community to increase aid to
Zimbabwe to meet the real needs of the people, Botswana has
not changed its principled stand, and by reminding the GOZ of
what changes are needed to "help us help you," will remain a
helpful ally in the effort to return democracy and rule of
law to Zimbabwe. End Comment.

NOLAN