BOTSWANA READOUT ON ZIMBABWE, MADAGASCAR

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2019
TAGS: PREL EAID KPKO ZI MA BC
SUBJECT: BOTSWANA READOUT ON ZIMBABWE, MADAGASCAR

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen J. Nolan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Minister Skelemani spent two hours
on April 3 briefing Ambassador Nolan and other Chiefs of
Mission on the proceedings of the March 30 SADC Summit.
Skelemani was frustrated by the unconstitutional change of
power in Madagascar, and he was disappointed that the
situation unraveled faster than SADC had anticipated. Though
SADC has suspended Madagascar from attending its meetings,
the organization has not yet imposed any economic sanctions
on the island. Skelemani emphasized that SADC is not ready
to send in a peacekeeping brigade, at least not until all
other options have been exhausted and the UN and AU are on
board. He also opined that Madagascar's geographic isolation
and SADC's lack of good intelligence about what is happening
on the ground there would make any military intervention
dangerous and unlikely to be effective. Skelemani remarked
that President Ravalomanana seemed to be completely out of
touch with what was happening in his own country, whether in
the streets or the barracks. Moving to Zimbabwe, Minister
Skelemani was quite optimistic about the unity government.
He noted that progress is being made and explained that
President Mugabe, ZANU-PF ministers and even the generals are
working better with MDC than had been anticipated. However,
Skelemani said that Zimbabwe is bankrupt and will require USD
1 billion in budgetary support just in 2009 to function.
Skelemani made a plea for lifting of sanctions and increased
foreign aid to Zimbabwe, including budgetary support. He
also noted that Botswana is part of a new SADC committee that
will soon travel to donor capitals and major financial
institutions to lobby for support to Zimbabwe. Skelemani was
vague about what financial support would be provided by SADC
members to Zimbabwe. The assembled diplomats emphasized that
our humanitarian aidto Zimbabwe is already signficant and
likely to row, but noted that lifting of sanctions is
premaure and that direct budget support to the GOZ isimpossible under current conditions. END SUMMAR.


2. (C) Botswana's Foreign Minister Phandu Skelemani invited
select members of the diplomatic corps to a briefing April 3
to discuss the SADC Extraordinary Summit held March 30 in
Swaziland. The American, British, German, and European Union
Chiefs of Mission attended, along with the French Charge.
Minister Skelemani was accompanied by his Permanent
Secretary, Deputy Permanent Secretary, and other staff from
the Ministry's Divisions of African Affairs and Europe and
the Americas. Minister Skelemani was animated and thorough
during the two hour meeting. He shared with the assembled
diplomats a colorful and detailed account of deliberations
within SADC and presentations by President Ravalomanana and
the Zimbabwe delegation.


MADAGASCAR
--------------

3. (C) Minister Skelemani opened the meeting with a
discussion of Madagascar. He said that unfortunately, events
had unraveled more quickly in Madagascar than SADC had
anticipated. Though they sent Executive Secretary Salomao to
see what was happening, before he could assist Ravalomanana
had signed a resignation letter. When President Ravalomanana
briefed the SADC summit, he asked that a peacekeeping brigade
be sent to Madagascar to facilitate his return to power.
Skelemani remarked that the President seemed quite out of
touch with what was happening in his own country. When the
SADC leaders asked him why some 150 soldiers out of an army
of 14,000 could force him to resign, he could not explain.
He simply claimed that the bulk of the military supported him
but were unwilling to use force to back him because they were
unwilling to take up arms against their compatriots.
According to Skelemani, SADC had no choice but to call upon
Andry Rajoelina to hand power back to Ravalomanana because he
took power unconstitutionally. However, SADC was not
prepared to use force in Madagascar. He noted that
Madagascar's geographic isolation and SADC's lack of good
intelligence about happenings there (only South Africa and
Mauritius even have embassies there, and President
Ravalomanana offered no useful intelligence) would make any
military deployment there dangerous and unlikely to succeed.

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He also noted that according to a recent protocol SADC must
get the concurrence of the AU and UN before committing its
troops.


4. (C) Ambassador Nolan asked whether or not SADC supports a
new election in Madagascar, which has been called for by the
AU but wasn't mentioned in the SADC communique. Skelemani
said that SADC did not mention elections because Ravalomanana
maintains that his government has not been overthrown,
therefore no elections are necessary, he should simply be
restored to power as the already-elected leader. The
Ambassador also asked whether any economic sanctions have
been imposed by SADC, and Skelemani responded that economic
measures were a possible next step if more pressure is
needed. The European Union noted that there had been some
discontent in Madagascar when Ravalomanana chose to join
SADC, and he wondered whether this would make SADC less
credible during this crisis. Minister Skelemani acknowledged
it was possible that Rajoelina could decide to simply break
ties with SADC.


ZIMBABWE
--------------

5. (C) The bulk of the two hour meeting was spent discussing
the situation in Zimbabwe. The Foreign Minister explained
that Zimbabwe Finance Minister Tendai Biti had traveled
unannounced to Botswana ahead of the Swazi summit to explain
his government's desperation to Botswana Finance Minister
Gaolathe. According to Skelemani, the GOZ is completely
bankrupt and the Zimbabwe dollar is "dead". Minister Biti
estimates that GOZ revenue is USD 20 million/month, but he
requires USD 30 million per month just to pay the public
service. Both Biti (MDC-T) and MDC-M Minister Welshman Ncube
accompanied President Mugabe to the SADC summit, and
Skelemani was impressed both with the eloquent pleas made by
the MDC ministers for support to the new government and by
President Mugabe's praise and support for his MDC ministers.
Both Biti and Ncube told the SADC leaders that the new
government is making progress and that the JOMIC is dealing
effectively with outstanding issues. Although they both said
farm invasions are problematic and must be dealt with, Biti
and Ncube told SADC that no new farms have been seized, but
noted that these properties were previously designated by
government for seizure but not acted upon. Biti told SADC
that the GOZ needs USD 1 billion in budget support just to
make it through 2009, though admitted that this amount would
have to come in stages as the government could not absorb it
all at once. President Mugabe praised the work of Tendai
Biti in only a few weeks and called him his best Finance
Minister ever. He commited himself to the rule of law and
explained that the JOMIC is working out the final issues
regarding allotment of positions (including governors and
permanent secretaries) amongst the parties in the unity
government. Mugabe admitted that 5 million Zimbabweans are
being fed by the international community and that the
country's health and education systems have collapsed.


6. (C) According to Skelemani, the SADC leaders told Mugabe
and the Zimbabwean delegation that "you need to help us to
help you." They acknowledged that the donor nations will be
reluctant to help Zimbabwe unless SADC notes improvements in
the country, so asked that Zimbabwe give them these
improvements. One thing SADC stressed, according to
Skelemani, is that the farm invasions should stop. Foreign
Minister Skelemani says that President Mugabe approached him
to "thank him for his attitude" during the summit. Mugabe
told Skelemani that "we are glad you (Botswana) are even
thinking about helping us." Skelemani says that he told
Mugabe "we have been trying to help you all along, even if
you didn't see it." Permanent Secretary Outlul opined that
the road accident which killed Mrs.Tsvangirai had genuinely
shaken all sides of theunity government. He said at that
moment, it apeared the whole government could fall apart,
but since then, he believes that ZANU-PF and MDC members of
government have gone a long way to overcome former mindsets
of enmity and find ways to work together. Outlule also noted
that the previous fears that the generals would not salute PM
Tsvangirai have been overcome. Minister Skelemani also noted

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that the ZANU-PF ministers have been cooperating with
Tsvangirai and bringing items to him to get them on the
cabinet agenda, rather than running straight to Mugabe as had
been feared.


7. (C) Botswana and SADC have decided that support for the
government of national unity is the only chance for the
future of Zimbabwe, according to Skelemani. Therefore, the
summit decided to form a committee of the Finance Ministers
from Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Zambia and DRC, who
along with the SADC Executive Secretary, will be charged with
finding additional financial support for the GOZ. Skelemani
reported that the SADC members are supposed to decide by
April 15 how they can each assist Zimbabwe. He noted that
Botswana really doesn't have any funds to provide budget
support, but said that he was exploring other options. He
proposed that the Botswana Development Corporation (BDC)
might be authorized to help fund some Botswana-Zimbabwe joint
ventures in the manufacturing sector and the GOB would also
explore encouraging Botswana banks to offer lines of credit
to Zimbabwean companies who wish to source inputs in
Botswana. Skelemani anticipated that South Africa could be
the most helpful within SADC, and that they would likely find
a way to offer some assistance through the Development Bank
of Southern Africa.


8. (C) Skelemani's summary was that "the breakdown of the
rule of law is over in Zimbabwe and Mugabe is not going back
to his old ways." He told the assembled diplomats that the
GOB joins SADC to ask the international community to engage
with Zimbabwe. He noted that the GOZ is prepared to welcome
visits from foreign governments and that some have already
taken place. The diplomatic response was unified and
skeptical. The diplomats resident in Gaborone reminded the
GOB that the donor community is already providing enormous
humanitarian support to Zimbabwe (more than $600 million in
2008) and that our humanitarian aid is likely to continue if
not increase. But the Chiefs of Mission also noted that
direct budget support to Zimbabwe was simply impossible at
this stage, given the GOZ's track record of misappropriating
funds and politicizing programs. They also noted that
Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono would have to be removed
before any funds could be given to the GOZ. They welcomed
increased diplomatic engagement between the GOZ and western
capitals and promised to continue re-assessing both foreign
assistance and sanctions when real progress in Zimbabwe can
be shown.


9. (C) The diplomats then asked Skelemani when the SADC
committee plans to visit capitals and requested early notice
of the planned dates. Skelemani replied that the program was
not yet set, but noted that they hoped to take advantage of
the IMF/World Bank spring meetings coming up soon in
Washington to make a plea for renewed donor assistance to
Zimbabwe. Minister Skelemani also said that he understands
that SADC needs to be able to show donors "a clear commitment
to certain actions by the GOZ" before the SADC committee
travels to European, American, and Asian capitals or the
meetings will be pointless. He explained that Finance
Minister Biti had returned to Harare and was working to
outline for SADC the progress that has already been made and
the commitments of the GOZ for additional reforms. In
closing, the Chiefs of Mission thanked Minister Skelemani and
the GOB for the nation's leadership not only on SADC crises
like Zimbabwe and Madagascar but also clear-headed statements
on other international problems like Sudan.
NOLAN