BRITISH VIEWS ON BOTSWANA, ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000025

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ZI BC
SUBJECT: BRITISH VIEWS ON BOTSWANA, ZIMBABWE

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Philip R. Drouin for reasons 1.4 (B) a
nd (D).


1. (C) Summary: Charge d'Affaires and A/DCM met with the
British High Commissioner to Botswana Frank Martin January 7
at his office. The meeting was a continuation of long
standing close cooperation and information sharing between
the U.S. Embassy and UKHC in Gaborone. Martin recently
returned to Botswana from vacation, and wanted an opportunity
to exchange views with his American counterpart on current
events in Botswana and the region. He briefed the Charge on
President Khama's November visit to London before exchanging
views on Botswana-Zimbabwe relations. End Summary.

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Khama in London
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2. (C) High Commissioner Martin helped to organize and was
present for President Khama's November 26-27 official visit
to the United Kingdom, during which he met with the Queen and
senior British government officials. Martin noted with some
surprise that President Khama shunned all attempts to raise
the profile of the visit by doing media interviews or
involving the press. He tried to keep his visit to the UK as
private as possible. Martin said that Foreign Minister
Skelemani did some media outreach, including his appearance
on the BBC program Hard Talk, during the London trip. Many
of Khama's discussions in London focused on the crisis in
neighboring Zimbabwe, and he expressed his concern that the
African Union and other international players may have to
exert additional pressure on SADC to break the impasse
regarding a way forward in Zimbabwe. Martin highlighted some
interesting comments President Khama made while addressing a
group of British parliamentarians. According to the UKHC,
Khama told the British MPs that he never wanted to be a
politician, but that he entered government out of a sense of
public service. Khama went so far as to say that after
spending 10 years as Vice President, he may only wish to
serve one five-year term as President so that he can "get on
with the rest of his life." Khama also discussed the impact
of the global financial crisis on Botswana. He indicated
that Debswana had sold no diamonds in November 2008 and was
expected to only make $50 million in December. The President
acknowledged that the decline in diamond and other mineral
revenues will be difficult for the GOB, and indicated that
the GOB is studying ways to cut expenditures and draw on its
healthy foreign exchange reserves to weather the storm.

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Botswana/Zim Matters
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3. (C) The High Commissioner told us that he met January 6
with Botswana MFA Deputy Permanent Secretary Sesara George,
who told him that Vice President Merafhe and Foreign Minister
Skelemani are scheduled to represent the GOB at the African
Union meeting in Addis in late January/early February. They
also discussed Zimbabwe issues at length. Per Sesara George,
MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai received a "full validity
passport" from the Government of Zimbabwe just around
Christmas. George told Martin that he had "seen the passport
with his own eyes" and that it was full validity and
unrestricted. (Note: He did not specify whether it was a
tourist or diplomatic passport.) The UKHC reports that the
passport was delivered to Tsvangirai while he was in Maun by
someone from the South African High Commission in Botswana.
George told HC Martin that Tsvangirai subsequently left
Botswana on December 30 to vacation in Cape Town with his
family. (Note: Martin was unaware of the rumored MDC meeting
to be held in South Africa January 5-7. End Note.) Deputy
Permanent Secretary George assured Martin that Morgan
Tsvangirai has no plans at this point to return to Botswana
as a resident, and indicated that Tsvangirai would continue
on to Zimbabwe after his vacation in South Africa. The High
Commissioner told us that Deputy P.S. George "was quite clear
on this point" and stressed that though Tsvangirai may be in
Botswana from time to time for ad hoc meetings or
consultations, he would be returning to Zimbabwe.


4. (C) The High Commissioner mentioned that Tsvangirai had
been talking in early December about organizing an
international "Friends of Zimbabwe" meeting to be held in
Gaborone in early 2009. However, Martin believes that this
meeting has been put on hold by both the GOB and the MDC out
of concerns that it would signal that the MDC has fully
abandoned the September powersharing agreement. (Note: The
GOB may also be skittish about hosting such a provacative

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conference right next door to its neighbor with which it
enjoys sour if not hostile relations just now. End Note.)
The High Commissioner Martin mentioned that he has heard
rumors about a possible SADC Extraordinary Summit on Zimbabwe
to be held later this month.


5. (C) Deputy Permanent Secretary George told HC Martin that
the GOB provided a truckload of water treatment chemical
directly to the GOZ on Christmas day. In addition, the GOB
said that it gave the Red Cross three 10-ton trucks worth of
medical supplies to fight the cholera epidemic. These
supplies were provided around December 31. The GOB estimated
that both the chemicals and medical supplies are worth 1.5
million pula (approximately USD 200,000). This donation is
reportedly in addition to the 3 million pula of humanitarian
assistance the GOB pledged for Zimbabwe in early December

2008. The Government also told the UKHC that they increased
the pace of deportations of illegal migrants from Zimbabwe
around the holidays. Sesara George told the High
Commissioner that approximately 1000 Zimbabweans were
deported from Botswana around Christmas. George also
mentioned to the UKHC that the GOB has arrested several "CIO
operatives" for clandestine activities inside Botswana, but
refused to elaborate on how many people had been arrested or
the nature of their activities.

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Comment
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6. (C) Comment: Khama's statement in London that "he looks
forward to getting on with the rest of his life" and may only
serve one term would come as a shock to most observers here
in Botswana. Though he shuns the limelight and avoids media
encounters at home and abroad, Khama is seen here as a
natural if somewhat stern leader, and he is fully expected to
follow Botswana's tradition of serving two terms in office
and then handing over power to his Vice President. (Note: We
expect that current VP Merafhe is merely a place-holder,
given his age, and that after the 2009 General Elections he
will be replaced. End Note.) It would shake up the Botswana
elite if Khama announced that he does not intend to seek a
second term. It remains to be seen whether his statement in
Britain was merely wishful thinking on his part, or reflects
a serious intention to retire earlier than expected. We
should also note that Khama has not yet been elected to his
first term as President! The ruling Botswana Democratic
Party is of course widely expected to easily win the October
2009 general election, at which point the party is expected
to install Khama as President.


7. (C) Comment Continued: We found it interesting that
Sesara George was so adamant to the British that Morgan
Tsvangirai will not return to live in Botswana. He has been
resident in Gaborone for at least a month, and perhaps the
GOB has grown tired of hosting him at the government's guest
house here in the capital. Tsvangirai told assembled
journalists at his December 19 press conference in Gaborone
that he would return to Zimbabwe once he received his
passport, so it now remains to be seen whether he will keep
that promise. The GOB continues to play a helpful role
regarding Zimbabwe. Botswana's humanitarian contributions to
its neighbor are laudable, especially in the context of the
global economic downturn. Botswana's government is heavily
dependent on revenues from Debswana's diamond sales as well
as tourism and other base metal mining. The mining and
tourism sectors are expected to be hit hard by the global
recession, and GOB revenue is likely to decline signficantly
in 2009. End Comment.
DROUIN