GREENS IN SAARLAND TURN RIGHT, SETTING POLITICAL PRECEDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L FRANKFURT 002670

C O R R E C T E D COPY (ADDED DECL DATE)

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 20191013
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT: GREENS IN SAARLAND TURN RIGHT, SETTING POLITICAL PRECEDENT

Ref: Berlin 938

Classified by: Consul General Ned Alford for reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: The Green Party in Saarland set a new political
precedent October 11 when it decided overwhelmingly to form a
coalition with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Free
Democratic Party (FDP),a so-called "Jamaica" coalition based upon
the parties' colors (Black, Yellow and Green). Already, the media
and politicians from all parties are speculating as to whether this
indicates a new course for the historically left-leaning Greens. In a
meeting with the Ambassador October 13, Greens Party co-Chair Cem
Oezdemir expressed satisfaction with the Saarland Greens' decision,
noting that the key is what the party will be able to achieve.
Almost forecasting this outcome, Greens party co-caucus leader Renate
Kuenast told the Ambassador October 2 that she did not want the
Greens to be part of a leftist "bloc," but rather saw the party
working toward a coalition with the CDU on the national level in the
future. The Saarland Greens' vote was not only one in favor of
forming a coalition with the CDU and FDP, but an expression of
opposition to cooperating with the Saarland Left Party and its
leader, Oskar Lafontaine. End summary.


GREENS AS KINGMAKER


2. (U) The Saarland state elections August 30 eliminated the CDU's
absolute majority and put the Green Party in the position of
"Kingmaker." The Greens had to choose whether to join with the right
of center CDU and FDP in a Jamaica coalition or turn to the left, and
join with the Social Democrats (SPD) and Left Party (referred to as
red-red-green for the parties' colors). The Greens decided to let
their members choose its direction at their state wide convention on
October 11, where the party decided with 78% in favor of a Jamaica
coalition.


3. (SBU) During the past month, rumors ran rampant as to whether a
Jamaica or Red-Red-Green coalition would form. Last week, Saarland
SPD Head, Heiko Maas, publicly suggested that a Red-Red-Green
government would happen since the parties had ironed out most of
their differences. All predictions blew up at the end of the week
however when the Left Party national co-chair, Oskar Lafontaine,
suddenly announced that he would give up his Bundestag seat in Berlin
to stay in Saarland after the government formed. This decision,
which was heavily covered in the press, contradicted his prior
position that he would serve only as an interim Caucus chief before
returning to Berlin.


"LAFONTAINE AND THE LEFT PARTY ERRATIC AND NOT TRUSTWORTHY"


4. (SBU) As soon as the State Convention began, Consulate
representatives speaking to attendees learned that a Jamaica
coalition was likely. The Saarland Greens Party board had voted
earlier in the day for a Jamaica coalition. The Green Party
Chairman, Hubert Ulrich, subsequently delivered an impassioned and
emotional speech, arguing that the Left Party was unstable, erratic,
and untrustworthy. Ulrich considered Lafontaine's recent
announcement to stay in Saarland to be a breach of promise and said
that the most important factor for a coalition was stability, which
could not be achieved with Lafontaine, but could with the CDU with
whom negotiations and been fruitful and substantive. Ulrich later
referred to Oskar Lafontaine as the "father of Jamaica."


5. (U) Although Ulrich's message seemed to persuade many delegates,
others spoke out against joining with the CDU and for a coalition
with the SPD and Left party. Some speakers argued that the Greens'
platform fits better with the ideology of the SPD and that for the
Greens to support the incumbent Minister-President Peter-Mueller, who
has been in office for ten years, goes against their promise to bring
change to government.


GREENS GET GOOD DEAL IN GOVERNMENT TO COME


6. (SBU) The Jamaica coalition will be the first such coalition in
Germany. Peter Mueller the CDU Minister President will remain
government chief. The Greens will head two ministries, the Ministry
for the Environment and Energy and Ministry for Education. The
coalition agreed to numerous points most significant of which are the
elimination of tuition fees for universities in Saarland, the
eventual elimination of coal production in Saarland, and the
agreement to stick to the current timetable of decommissioning
nuclear power plants. This last item may be significant if the
federal CDU and FDP government, as they are discussing, decides to
alter the nuclear decommissioning plan (see reftel). The Saarland
Bundesrat representatives, which will include Minister-President
Mueller, may be compelled to vote against this national initiative
due to the terms of their coalition agreement.


GREENS NATIONAL LEADERS SEE NEW COURSE FOR GREENS


7. (C) In an October 2 meeting, Greens co-Caucus leader Renate
Kuenast almost previewed the Saarland decision, telling the
Ambassador that the Greens should not limit itself to being part of a
"leftist bloc." Rather, Kuenast said that she sees the Greens
working toward a coalition with the CDU on the national level, a
coalition which currently only exists in Hamburg. Greens national
co-Chair Cem Oezdemir likewise told the Ambassador October 13 that
the Greens should not limit their alliances but should rather see how
they can achieve their goals, including with the CDU. He noted,
however, that the party is somewhat divided on this issue, with the
party's more left-leaning wing upset with the Saarland decision.
Oezdemir explained that the Greens and the SPD, which have
traditionally sought to form coalitions together, draw some of their
support from different constituencies, with the Greens drawing from
educated, environmentalists, and the SPD the working class.


8. (C) Comment: The decision of the Saarland Greens reflects the new
five party political landscape in Germany. While the Greens have
traditionally shared more ideology with the SPD party, their current
coalition with the CDU and FDP may force all three parties to
question their identity as either 'left' or 'right' wing. Oscar
Lafontaine managed to make the final event dramatic with his
announcement last week. Several Green party members hypothesized
that Lafontaine deliberately wanted to reduce the likelihood of a
Red-Red-Green government and further damage the SPD party which is
already suffering after resounding losses in the Sept 27 federal
election. A damaged SPD could help the Left party maintain its now
proven strength. A successful CDU-Green coalition may also show that
the Greens no longer need their former SPD partners to function
successfully in government. End Comment


9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin.

ALFORD