NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS COULD IMPACT SAARLAND COALITION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 002525

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SENSITIVE
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS COULD IMPACT SAARLAND COALITION
BUILDING

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1. (U)SUMMARY: Saarland, the small, picturesque German state on the
French border, remains in transition following its August 30 state
elections, when no party won a clear majority. Despite its
uncertain state, the Saarland parliamentary session opened this week
on September 23. Speculation about possible coalitions continues,
with no clear answers. A Social Democratic Party (SPD)-Left-Green
(Red-Red-Green) or a Jamaica coalition (SPD-Green-Christian
Democratic Union) appear the most likely. The long-shot may be a
CDU-SPD Grand Coalition. A decision is expected following the
Greens' statewide convention on October 11th. All parties agree
that the national interest in their coalition negotiations will
decrease following the national parliamentary election on September

27. END SUMMARY


LEFT PARTY AS PROBLEM CHILD
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2. (SBU)The Left Party, which pulled 21.3% of the vote in the August
30 elections, entered the Saarland parliament for the first time
this year. They did so with a bang. Rolf Linsler, the chairman of
the Left Party, opened the session as he was the "Chairman of
Seniority" (Chairman most senior in age.) Rather than stick to the
usual non-partisan comments, Linsler delivered an energetic speech
on how changes in German culture (due to the failures of past
governments) had resulted in political gain for the Left Party. All
other parties uniformly viewed these comments with disapproval. The
chairman of the FDP, Christoph Hartmann, told us that this opening
was emblematic of the Left Party and their occasionally problematic
personality. He anticipated that a Jamaica coalition would result,
since the Greens have noted their discomfort with Left Party
personalities.


THE GREENS IN POWER
--------------


3. (U)All parties continue to view the Greens Party as the
"Kingmaker" in Saarland, since the Greens' chosen coalition will
prevail. The Greens will have its party members make the decision
on coalition partners. They are holding three regional meetings in
the coming weeks, with the final decision to be made on October 11th
at a Saarland state party convention. Formal discussions between
the Greens and the SPD and the CDU began earlier this month, while
the Greens met with both the Left Party and the Free Democratic
Party (FDP) on September 24 and 25 following the Parliamentary
Session.


4. (SBU)According to Green parliamentarian, Markus Schmitt, a
Red-Red-Green government appears to be the most likely, because the
parties are closer on key issues. Although Schmitt acknowledges
personality tensions between the Left Party and Greens, he said that
they would not be a determining factor, as the strength of Green and
SDP relations would allow a Red-Red-Green coalition to succeed.
Schmitt personally prefers a CDU-FDP-Green (Jamaica) government, as
he feels such a coalition would set an example for the national
level.


HEIKO MAAS AND A DISPLACED CDU
--------------

5. (SBU)In the meantime, the CDU General Secretary, Stefan Toscani,
has been required to move to a new office in the Parliament building
so that the Left Party could occupy his old one (The Left leader
Oscar Lafontaine literally took over Toscani's old room). This
apparently was not meant as a symbolic move since The Left actually
did need space in the building. Toscani still believes that the CDU
could have a place in government. He, like Schmitt from the Greens,
believes that a Jamaica coalition would be ideal, because it would
set a precedent, serve as a model for the national level, and would
work well. He posited however that the SPD was striving to make a
Red-Red-Green government because its leader, Heiko Maas, desperately
longs to become Minister-President and eventually rise to the
national level.


6. (SBU)Both Toscani and SPD Leader Heiko Maas himself also
acknowledged that a Grand Coalition is not entirely out of the
question. Generally, the CDU and SPD in Saarland do not get along
well; however, according to Maas, if a Grand Coalition forms
nationally, pressure may come down to form one in Saarland. Maas
and his SPD colleague, parliamentarian Ulrich Comercon, however,
favor a SPD-Left-Green coalition, saying that it would succeed
because the SPD and Left agree ideologically. Comercon also
assessed that the Greens would not want to govern with the CDU
because the CDU had antagonized them in the past. Comercon further
highlighted the popularity of Lafontaine in Saarland as the reason

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for why the Left should be in government.



7. (SBU) Comment: The coalition options in Saarland remain open,
with rampant speculation on all fronts. Whether close party
ideologies can overcome personality differences with regard to The
Left Party remain to be seen. Ultimately, what happens in the
national election on September 27 may also influence how things
unfold in Saarland, given both CDU and SPD comments that a Grand
Coalition remains possible. End Comment.


8. (U) Consulate General Frankfurt coordinated this report with
Embassy Berlin



ALFORD