Super Election Year in Germany Begins with Probable CDU-FDP

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 000025

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: Super Election Year in Germany Begins with Probable CDU-FDP
Win in Hesse

REF: 07 Frankfurt 3300

Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution.


1. Summary: The state of Hesse kicks off Germany's "Super Election
Year" with its own state elections on January 18, in what will
likely be a win for the CDU and FDP and a painful loss for the SPD.
The CDU and FDP are also courting each other as partners at the
national level. After an inconclusive election in January 2007 left
the CDU in power in Hesse in a caretaker role, the SPD has bungled
two attempts to form a government with the Greens supported by the
Left Party, leaving it deeply unpopular and necessitating a new
election. CDU Minister President Roland Koch now appears likely to
ride the SPD's errors and his image as competent on economic issues
to victory in a year with several state elections, a European
Parliament election and, finally, a federal election in September.
The national SPD will want to put this election behind it as quickly
as possible, and focus on the national campaign ahead. End Summary.


CDU: IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID
--------------


2. With the January 18 Hesse election less than two weeks away,
current polls in the state give the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
41% of the vote and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) 13%, leaving the
two likely coalition partners with a solid majority. This would end
the caretaker government led by the CDU since the January 2007
election, during which time the Social Democratic Party (SPD) failed
twice to form a SPD-Green minority government with the support of
the Left Party (see reftel). The SPD has been punished in the
polls, trailing badly at 25% (down 11% from the 2007 election
result),while the Greens poll at 13% and the Left Party at 5%.
Koch has said that he will only govern with the FDP, formalizing the
polarization of the five parties into two blocs.


3. In what may be a preview for this year's state elections in
Saarland, Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony, as well as the federal
election, Koch has run a professional, low-key, carefully controlled
campaign, telling the voters they can rely on strong CDU leadership
in a period of economic recession. This campaign strategy is a
marked departure from 2007, when Koch ran on a divisive and
ultimately unpopular platform of cracking down on violent crime
committed by immigrant juveniles. Koch, who has been Minister
President since 1999, recently announced a 1.7 billion euro
infrastructure spending project to stimulate the state economy, and
has been a leading voice of the national party on economic issues in
his role as deputy chairperson. Both the CDU and FDP have
campaigned on the viability of Germany's social market economy in
tough times and taken credit for its relative success. FDP lead
candidate Joerg-Uwe Hahn has gone as far as to bash U.S.-style
market capitalism, calling financially-troubled General Motors (the
parent company of Hesse-based Opel) a "rotten locust."

SPD: MANY WAYS TO LOSE
--------------


4. The SPD has mounted an uninspiring campaign and appears
incapable of resurrecting itself after an internal fiasco in which
four party members refused to vote for the minority government that
would have unseated Koch. Although the deeply unpopular former lead
candidate Andrea Ypsilanti has stepped aside for the relatively
young and unknown Thorstsen Schaefer-Guembel, she has stayed on as
Hesse's party chairperson, signalling that the party has not changed
significantly. National party chairman Franz Muentefering has now
said publicly that state-level parties must still consider
cooperation with the Left Party, and Schaefer-Guembel says that "all
options are on the table." The Left Party remains above the 5%
threshold in the polls, leaving the SPD with no way to govern
without its support, should election results match or exceed current
polls.


5. Comment: If the CDU and FDP succeed in forming a coalition
government in Hesse, they will receive a strong and early boost
going into the other upcoming elections. The less likely prospect
of a SPD, Green, and Left Party majority would force the SPD to
agonize publicly once again over the controversial idea of working
with the Left Party. A weak showing for the SPD in Hesse might,
however, have a silver lining for the national party, by allowing it
to put behind the bitterly divisive debate in Hesse over cooperation
with the Left well before the federal election in September. End
Comment.


6. This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin.
POWELL