SAARLAND ELECTION AFTERMATH: GREENS TAKING THE SLOW ROAD

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 002318

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON PGOV GM
SUBJECT: SAARLAND ELECTION AFTERMATH: GREENS TAKING THE SLOW ROAD
TO GOVERNMENT TO AVOID NATIONAL ELECTION CONTROVERSY


1. Summary: (SBU) Torn between the Social Democratic Party (SPD)
and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) as prospective coalition
partners, the Saarland Greens have chosen to postpone a decision
until after the 27 September Bundestag elections. Instead they will
conduct informal talks with all the parties before holding regional
party meetings this month and a state party convention, probably on
October 10, to decide with which party they want to begin formal
coalition negotiations. Greens officials have told the Consulate
that the national party supports waiting until October to keep their
options open and avoid a decision that might split the party and
hurt it in the Bundestag vote. Greens General Secretary Tressel
acknowledged to the press that the national Greens party would like
a leftist coalition with the SPD and the Left Party. He insisted,
however, that the state party will decide and it is equally
considering a coalition with incumbent Minister-President Peter
Mueller's CDU and the centrist Free Democratic Party (FDP). Both
sides have offered to make concessions to the Greens, but are
considering just how much given that the Greens have just three
seats in the 51-member parliament. END SUMMARY.


2. The Greens continue to say that the SPD is their preferred
partner but that they have serious substantive disagreements with
the Left Party on substance particularly the latter's support for
coal mining. Perhaps even more important, however, are personal
animosities between the Greens leaders, particularly state party
chief Ulrich, and two of the Left Party members of parliament who
once were Greens members. The August 30 Saarland state election put
the Greens in the driver seat in determining the next government
coalition; both the CDU and FDP, with 19 and 5 seats, respectively,
and the SPD and Left Party, with 13 and 11 seats, respectively, are
short of the 26 votes needed to elect a minister-president in
Saarland. Both sides have quickly made gestures to the Greens.
CDU's Mueller said publicly August 31 that he is ready to discuss
removing university tuitions, a policy he had initiated, and to make
other policy concessions such as increasing support for public
transportation or considering a full ban on smoking in restaurants
in order to clinch a deal with the Greens. On the left, SPD leader
Maas is being relatively tight-lipped in public but is reportedly
working behind-the-scenes to gain concessions from the Left Party.



3. While informal talks will continue to take place, little real
progress is likely to come before the September 27 Bundestag vote.
Greens officials have told the Consulate that the national party
supports waiting until October to keep their options open and avoid
a decision that might split the party and hurt it in the Bundestag
vote. National party leaders clearly are leaning toward a
red-red-green coalition, but one Hesse state-level official told the
Consulate that Saarland is also considered a good place to attempt
the "Jamaica" option of a CDU (black)-FDP (yellow)-Greens alliance
because the Saar CDU and FDPs are both to the left of their federal
parties. The parties have time to wait; under the Saar constitution
the parliament has three months to pick a new government after it
convenes on September 23. Either choice will be historic but both
will be difficult for the Saar Greens, with its membership severely
split between those who would find it odious to support the
re-election of Mueller and those who just as vehemently distrust
Left Party leader and former Saarland Minister-President Oskar
Lafontaine. Many see him as the man pulling the strings in a party
that is a relic of old thinking on key issues such as energy, social
policy, and child care.

ALFORD