GREENS KINGMAKERS IN SAARLAND ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L FRANKFURT 002274

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL AT 2019
TAGS: ECON PGOV GM
SUBJECT: GREENS KINGMAKERS IN SAARLAND ELECTION

CLASSIFIED BY PBERRY FOR REASON 1.4 (B)


1. (C) Summary: Saarland voters gave incumbent Minister-President
and Christian Democrat Peter Mueller a political lashing in the
August 30 state parliamentary elections, and showed their continued
affection for former Social Democratic Party (SPD) chief and current
Left Party leader Oskar Lafontaine. National CDU leaders may now
have to re-calculate their campaign messages and focus for the four
remaining weeks before national parliamentary elections. A new look
at the Greens may be in order. The Saarland results have made the
Greens, which Sunday afternoon still were nervous about remaining in
parliament, the kingmakers in building the next Saarland government.
Both Mueller and current SPD leader Heiko Maas were already wooing
the Greens Sunday night, with Mueller seeking a CDU-Free Democratic
Party-Green coalition and Maas an SPD-Left-Green government.
Negotiations will almost certainly extend past the 27 September
Bundestag vote.


2. (C) The results of the Saarland elections point to the bizarre
nature of German politics at the moment. The CDU lost the elections
but the SPD didn't really win. The Left Party made substantial gains
but does not know how to manage its newly found power. The Greens
may be the kingmaker but they may seek to stall a decision on their
future membership of a SPD-Left Party coalition until after the
parliamentary election, which will result in a longer period of
political uncertainty in a state to which many political analysts
will be looking in coming weeks. End Summary.


3. (SBU) The CDU and SPD both suffered losses on Sunday, when strong
voter turnout appears to have benefitted Lafontaine's Left Party the
most. The CDU lost 13 points from 2004 but remained the largest
party with 34.5 percent of the vote and 19 seats in parliament. The
SPD fell 6.3 percent to win 24.5 percent and 13 seats. The Left had
a strong third-place showing with 21.3 percent and 11 seats. The two
smaller parties both increased their share of the vote, the FDP from
5.2 to 9.2 percent (five seats) and the Greens from 5.6 to 5.9
percent (three seats). Turnout was 67.6 percent, up from 55.5
percent in 2004.


4. (SBU) CDU Minister-President Mueller conceded publicly election
night that he had not expected such large losses, calling them
"painful," but insisted that as the largest party the CDU has the
right to head the next government. He added he would talk to all the
parties except the Left Party but was seeking a "Jamaica"
CDU-FDP-Green coalition (which represent the parties with the colors
black/green/yellow). He rejected any suggestion that he might have
to step down as minister-president to form such a government. The
Social Democrats celebrated the Sunday results despite their own
losses, their worst since Saarland became part of the Federal
Republic. SPD leader and minister-president candidate Maas told U.S.
Consulate officials that if it was up to him, negotiations could
quickly produce a red-red-green (SPD-Left-Greens) government. He
stressed publicly that the CDU's campaign against a red-red
government had failed and that the left-leaning parties won a clear
majority. Lafontaine clearly relished the Left Party's unexpectedly
strong showing and also called for a red-red-green alliance.


5. (SBU) The Greens looked just as happy as the Left Party in post
election interviews and are likely to make full use of their position
as kingmaker in a future coalition. Greens Caucus chief Hubert
Ulrich joked that "we are very popular tonight" and rejected repeated
attempts by the press to suggest a preferred coalition. He said it
was up to the other parties to come to them with a coalition proposal
but that the Greens would take their time and base their decision on
policy substance. The Greens want to reverse Mueller's introduction
of university tuition payments and are seeking much stronger support
for public transportation than has occurred under Mueller, but they
are closer to the CDU and FDP in supporting the phasing out of coal
mining.


6. (SBU) At the same time, Ulrich called Lafontaine's campaign to
keep the Greens out of the parliament "not nice" but said the Greens
were "professionals" who would not let personalities get in the way
of agreement. Lafontaine, in a gesture to the Greens, repeated his
intention to stay out of any government he would not head. Overall,
the Greens are torn between the intensity of their dislike for
Mueller versus the Left Party, now that their campaign goal of an
SPD-FDP-Greens alliance failed to gain a parliamentary majority.
Ulrich noted that any decision would have to be approved by the party
rank-and-file and that negotiations with either side would be very
difficult.


7. (C) Comment: Although the final results of Sunday's vote remain
wide open, they already show the continued decline of the so-called
major parties and the need to consider new coalition alternatives
that can give a well placed party influence beyond its size. Both
the CDU and SPD will work hard to woo the Greens, and the FDP and the
Left Party have reasons to be flexible as well. The only road to
power for the Left Party is via an SPD-Left-Green coalition, and the
FDP will have to make concessions to the smaller Green party if it
wants to achieve its first ever participation in the Saarland
government. Either coalition would set a precedent for Saarland and
for Germany.


8. (C) The election results also reflect the need -- and apparent
willingness of party leaders at least in Saarland, where all of the
parties are to the left of their national leadership -- to adjust to
this changed political landscape. The Greens may find themselves in
the enviable position of determining Saarland's political future but
their future decision over which parties to support in Saarland's
coalition negotiations will undoubtedly have national implications.
The Greens' Co-Party Chairman Cem Oezdemir quickly noted that "the
SPD is closer to us than the CDU." This means that the SPD, Left
Party, and Greens stand a reasonable chance of forming the next
government while at the same time fulfilling two key objectives of
the Left Party: (1) CDU Party Chairman Peter Mueller's political
demise, and (2) the creation of the second SPD-Left Party coalition
in a German state after Berlin. If Thuringia charts a similar
course, followed possibly by Brandenburg (September 27) and
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2010),then a total of five states would be
represented by SPD and Left Party state governments, prompting
speculation that this particular political constellation could serve
as a successful model for the 2013 parliamentary elections. End
comment.


9. (SBU) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin.
ALFORD