Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09FRANKFURT1722
2009-07-01 08:52:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Consulate Frankfurt
Cable title:  

FRANKFURT'S IRANIAN VISA APPLICANT VALIDATION STUDY

Tags:  CVIS CPAS CMGT ASEC KFRD IR GM 
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VZCZCXRO3174
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHDIR RUEHFL
RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV
RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHTRO RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHFT #1722/01 1820852
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 010852Z JUL 09
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1004
INFO RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0592
RUEHMZ/AMCONSUL MUNICH 1699
RUEHPNH/NVC PORTSMOUTH 3385
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 5750
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1797
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 001722 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR CA/FPP; DEPT PASS TO KCC; POSTS FOR FRAUD PREVENTION
MANAGERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS CPAS CMGT ASEC KFRD IR GM
SUBJECT: FRANKFURT'S IRANIAN VISA APPLICANT VALIDATION STUDY

REF: ANKARA 449
STOCKHOLM 224

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 001722

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR CA/FPP; DEPT PASS TO KCC; POSTS FOR FRAUD PREVENTION
MANAGERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS CPAS CMGT ASEC KFRD IR GM
SUBJECT: FRANKFURT'S IRANIAN VISA APPLICANT VALIDATION STUDY

REF: ANKARA 449
STOCKHOLM 224


1. SUMMARY: Consulate General Frankfurt conducted a validation study
of Frankfurt's 2007 Iranian B-1/B-2 travelers. Of the 288
applicants who traveled to the United States, 19 (6.6%) claimed
asylum, adjusted status or overstayed. For the vast majority who
returned from the United States without incident, standard
indicators such as age, family ties and marital status were largely
accurate predictors of good travel. Two categories of higher
overstay risk emerged - travelers over the age of 60 with immediate
family in the United States and travelers under the age of 35 with
promising professional career potential. Post will use the results
of this study to make better-informed adjudications of this growing
population of visa applicants in the future. END SUMMARY.

BACKGROUND
--------------


2. The Iranian expatriate population living in Germany totals more
than 54,000, with almost 30,000 residing in Frankfurt's consular
district. This is down from the more than 107,000 Iranian passport
holders who lived in Germany in 2000. Much of this decline can be
explained by the more than 65,000 Iranians who have become
naturalized German citizens over that same period. In addition to
the large local expatriate population, Germany is a popular travel
destination for Iranians who travel here to visit their family and
friends and to apply for visas for onward travel to U.S. at
Frankfurt, a designated Iranian-processing post. In short,
Frankfurt sees a large number of Iranian visa applicants.


3. To assess Iranian visa applicants' compliance with U.S. visa
regulations and to inform consular officers' adjudications,
Consulate General Frankfurt performed a validation study of Iranian
applicants issued B-1/B-2 visas during the calendar year 2007.
Working with the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Visa
Security Unit here and using DHS's Arrival Departure Information
System (ADIS) database, Frankfurt reviewed all 2007 Iranian B-1/B-2
travel records. For those for whom no departure record could be
found, post used the contact information provided in the DS-156 to

contact each individual.

RESULTS
--------------


4. Frankfurt processed a total of 965 Iranian visa applicants in

2007. Officers approved 318 B-1/B-2 visas within the calendar year,
with an adjusted refusal rate of 46.1%. (NOTE: The adjusted refusal
rate excludes cases originally refused for Security Advisory
Opinions (SAOs) but later issued after receiving clearance. END
NOTE) Of the 318 B-1/B-2 visa issuances, 30 applicants (9.4%) did
not travel to the United States. Post then examined the travel
history of the remaining 288 Iranian travelers.


5. Of the 288 applicants reviewed, 269 (93.4%) complied with the
terms of their visa and registered timely departures from the United
States. The remaining 19 (6.6%) either claimed asylum after
arriving in the United States(five applicants),adjusted to another
nonimmigrant visa category or to legal permanent resident (LPR)
status (eight applicants),overstayed their permitted duration of
stay (five cases) or, in one case, were arrested and detained for
legal prosecution on charges of child pornography.

ANALYSIS
--------------


6. To understand better the travel patterns and tendencies of the 19
applicants who did not comply with their visa issuances, post
closely reviewed each case. Following is a brief summary of the
lessons and trends from this analysis.

PRIOR TRAVEL - A high proportion (47%) of these 19 applicants had
prior good travel to the United States. In several cases, the
applicants had frequent (up to one time per year) travel over a
multi-year period.

AGE MATTERS - The median age of the 288 Iranian B-1/B-2 travelers in
2007 was 59.4 years old, which substantiates officers' anecdotal
observations that many Iranian visa applicants here are retirees
with immediate family or close relatives living in the United
States. In contrast, the median age of the five applicants who
claimed asylum was 44.8 years old. This was much lower than the
median age of applicants who adjusted status (57.9 years old) or who

FRANKFURT 00001722 002 OF 002


overstayed (62.2 years old). Excepting one 76-year old applicant
who claimed asylum, the other four applicants claiming asylum were
between 21 and 50 years old. Conversely, only one of the five
applicants who overstayed was under the age of 50. Of the eight
applicants who adjusted status, two were young doctors (NOTE: both
are now listed on the Internet as practicing medicine in the U.S.
END NOTE),while the other six were all over the age of 56.

PRIOR REFUSALS - Five of the 19 applicants were previously refused
under section 214(b). In three of these cases, however, at least
one visa was issued after the refusal but before their 2007 travel.


MARITAL STATUS - Three of the 19 applicants had spouses whom they
either left behind or abandoned. Two of the three claimed asylum
and the third has never registered a departure from the United
States.

FAMILY IN IRAN OR GERMANY - While strong family ties in Iran and/or
Germany led to the return of most of the 288 Iranian travelers, this
did not appear to be a compelling tie for the 19 travelers who did
not register a timely departure. Only two of the 19 listed no
immediate family members (i.e., spouse, children or parents) living
in Iran or Germany. Most, in fact, had a significantly higher
proportion of immediate family members living outside the United
States than inside the United States.

COMMENT
--------------


7. The 93.4% compliance rate among Frankfurt's 2007 Iranian B-1/B-2
travelers tracks closely with the results of recent similar
validation studies by Embassies Stockholm and Ankara (reftels). The
study underscores that in the preponderance of cases, standard
factors of evaluation (prior good travel, strong social ties outside
of the United States and prior refusals in Frankfurt or another
post, among others) remain reliable indicators for good travel. As
the 19 overstay/aslyee/adjustment of status cases indicate, however,
these are not foolproof. Two primary profiles of travelers with
higher overstay risk emerged in the study:
-- (1) Travelers over the age of 60 with immediate family members
living in the United States; and,
-- (2) Applicants under the age of 35 with promising professional
career potential in fields such as medicine.


8. As the overall median age of 59.4 would indicate, many of the
Iranian travelers in 2007 fell into the over 60 former category,
making this outcome somewhat predictable. More striking, however,
is the indication that younger, highly-educated applicants also
present a significant overstay risk. Frankfurt will use the results
of this outcome to better inform our future adjudications of Iranian
visa travelers. In particular, consular officers will more closely
scrutinize younger travelers and their educational background.


POWELL