COMMUNAL ELECTIONS IN SW GERMANY BRING INSIGHT INTO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 001583

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: COMMUNAL ELECTIONS IN SW GERMANY BRING INSIGHT INTO
NATIONAL PARTY TRENDS

REF: BERLIN 683

Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution.


1. (SBU) Summary: Communal elections in three southwestern German
states on June 7 generally mirrored the European election results
(reftel),with voters drawn away from the larger CDU and SPD to the
smaller parties -- the FDP, Greens, and the Left Party. Bucking the
SPD's national slide, , the "Beck Factor" helped the
Rhineland-Palatinate (R-P) SPD marginally improve on their 2004
results. In Stuttgart, the Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W) Greens became
the strongest party in a major city council for the first time in
German history. Saarland's Greens eked past the 5% hurdle and look
poised to play a more decisive role in upcoming state and possibly
national elections. End Summary.

Independents Dominate in B-W, Greens Surprise in Stuttgart
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2. Independent voter groups (Freie Waehlervereinigungen) remain the
dominant political force in Baden-Wuerttemberg communities,
receiving 37.9% (+2.4%). Yet B-W's biggest surprise occurred in
Stuttgart, where the Greens wrested control of the state capital
from the CDU (25.3% to 24.3%),which had been in power there since

1971. The Greens turned the communal election into a protest vote
against the highly controversial issue of "Stuttgart 21" - a
multi-billion euro urban renewal project. Leading Greens celebrated
their win in Stuttgart as a "sensation" and admitted that they never
expected to become the strongest party. The German media reported
June 11 that Greens Party co-Chairman Cem Oezdemir, who recently
failed to get a promising position to enter the next German
parliament, might now have a good chance to become a Bundestag
member by winning a direct mandate through his Stuttgart
constituency.

R-P Communal Election: SPD Holds On
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3. The communal elections in R-P basically reflected the national
trend of the European Elections with the notable exception of a
minor (but significant in comparison to other areas) increase for
the R-P SPD, due to the intense popularity of R-P Minister President
(and former SPD national chair) Kurt Beck (SPD). Beck expressed
relief that his party has performed far better at the municipal
level than at the European elections level. Nevertheless, he
rejected any attempts to draw conclusions for the national election
in September.

The Race Tightens in Saarland, Greens Could Be Swing Player
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4. Saarland's political scene continued to heat up. The CDU
dropped 8.7% to 37%, further evidence of its increasingly tenuous
hold on the number one spot. The SPD also dropped from 37.3 to 34.7
%. The SPD won 4 out of 5 mayoral elections, prompting SPD caucus
chairperson Heiko Maas to claim that the upcoming August 30 state
election race will be "neck and neck". The Left Party maintained
its position with 10.1, but key is that the Greens received 5.2%
(+0.4%) in this election. Combined with the party's Saarland EU
election results (also placing them above 5%),there is some
indication that the Greens could exceed the 5% threshold in the
state elections to become a significant player in coalition
discussions.

COMMENT
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5. (SBU) The communal elections in Frankfurt's consular district
generally mirror the European Parliamentary election results --
losses for big parties and gains for small parties - but the details
reveal some important dynamics for the overall political scene.
Clearly the efforts of the Grand Coalition to save Opel have not
paid off for the CDU and SPD in this prime Opel territory. In R-P,
the popularity of M-P Beck may have prevented losses for his party
locally, but failed to transcend state boundaries to help in the
European election. This suggests that local "star power" will be of
limited use to the SPD in September. With Saarland state elections
in August, just a month before the national ones, the Greens (if
they overcome the 5% hurdle) may be the swing vote to create or
block the first red-red based coalition in western Germany. SPD
Caucus Chairman Heiko Maas may need to consider forgoing his
ambition to become Saarland M-P to prevent the CDU from using a
Saarland red-red coalition against the SPD at the national level.


6. (SBU) Contacts from multiple sectors complain that the Grand
Coalition has caused a watering- down of key ideological positions
for both the CDU and the SPD, leading to an "exodus to the edges"
evident in Frankfurt district communal and European election
results. To stem the outflow of voters, the ruling parties will
need to sharpen their message. We expect that in the coming months,

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politicians like B-W M-P Oettinger(CDU),who have relentlessly
attacked this weakening of the party platform, will feel encouraged
to continue their criticism. For the SPD, a local contact confided
that a period of time for the SPD as the national opposition party
might be just what it needs to redefine its platform and reclaim the
"left" from The Left Party. End Comment.

POWELL