STEEP CHALLENGES AHEAD WEIGH ON NEWLY ANNOUNCED COPE LEADER

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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: STEEP CHALLENGES AHEAD WEIGH ON NEWLY ANNOUNCED COPE LEADER
IN KZN

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1. (SBU) Summary. Congress of the People (COPE) political leader
Lucky Gabela discussed why he left the African National Congress
(ANC) and his new party's campaign strategy and prospects during
a meeting with the Consul General, visiting Pretoria Poloff, and
Pol-Econ Assistant on January 15. Gabela, who was once a senior
member of the ANC in KwaZulu Natal, announced his defection to
COPE publicly on January 10, but worked secretly for the new
party before then. He acknowledged the party must work hard to
gain a foothold in the province, but expressed confidence COPE
would meet its electoral goals and remain a political player
after the election. End Summary.

Gabela On Why He Left


2. (SBU) Former special adviser to the KwaZulu Natal Premier's
Office Lucky Gabela discussed why he defected from the African
National Congress to COPE in a January 15 meeting with the
Consul General, visiting Pretoria Poloff, and Pol-Econ
Assistant. He said that "leaving the ANC was a long time
coming." Acknowledging he has been working for COPE
"underground" for several months, he related that ANC members
are leaving the party because "they must find a way to find a
way to stop the monsters." (Note: Gabela's reference to
"monsters" probably relates to those in the Jacob Zuma camp who
during the past year aggressively pushed the "non-purge purge"
within the party following former President Thabo Mbeki's defeat
at Polokwane that saw his supporters sidelined. End Note.) He
expressed frustration with how young people in the ANC are
speaking out of turn within the ANC and added that he saw no
leadership within the ANC right now. Gabela lamented that he
and other Mbeki supporters "miscalculated" at Polokwane.
According to him, "The manipulation of the corruption case
against Zuma allowed Zuma's allies to defeat Mbeki [at the party
congress]."

Gabela on COPE and Its Future


3. (SBU) Gabela provided insight into how COPE is developing in
the province, and his remarks show how hard it is has been for
the new party to gain a foothold. He said the current focus for
the new party is building local and provincial branch offices.
COPE is building branches by distributing pamphlets with contact
numbers for members in a district, using the media to spread
their message, and attracting significant numbers of potential
voters for rallies in key areas. Despite Gabela's mention of
COPE's use of media, the former special adviser to the Premier's
Office seemed not to appreciate the high level of media
attention COPE is drawing across the country. He admitted that
because of the short amount of time before the election and the
limited resources available to the party, COPE is focused on
towns and cities rather than villages and rural areas. Gabela
said that despite high level comments by ANC leadership in the
province against political violence, the ANC is not showing
political tolerance for COPE rallies and meetings. He noted
that police presence at recent provincial rallies has helped,
but not enough for some community activists to avoid getting
hurt. One way COPE intends to counter the intimidation that its
members face is to go into "no-go areas" -- ANC strongholds --
with heavy security. Once in the area, COPE plans to get in and
out quickly before ANC cadres can mobilize and react.


4. (SBU) Gabela said COPE's goal for the election is 10 percent
in the province and 40 percent nationally. He said COPE will
try to capitalize on the numerous reasons that people are
leaving the ANC to join COPE. Many are leaving first because of
how the ANC unfairly recalled Mbeki without input from the
public, and secondly, due to the ANC's decision to aggressively
dismantle the Scorpions law enforcement unit. Third, some are
defecting because they want to make political leaders more
accountable. Fourth, many feel strongly that affirmative action
should not be applied along racial lines. Fifth, the party is
using is former knowledge of ANC operations to capitalize on
poor performance of local councilors and related
dissatisfaction. When the Consul General asked if COPE is
attracting supporters from across racial and cultural lines,
Gabela affirmed that the new party is crossing all the divides
it can. He said even white South Africans who have avoided
politics since 1994 are joining.


5. (SBU) Gabela predicted that a number of other ANC leaders in
the province would be joining COPE soon, but did not offer
names. He said part of the party's strategy right now is
keeping supporters in the ANC as long as possible to find out
information and to help disrupt plans. However, he said that at
a certain point "we will not allow more to come." According to
Gabela's view, "COPE cannot be open forever." He said that it

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is better for members to join now rather than after the ANC's
parliamentary officers' list process ends, and COPE has to
"accept losers." He quipped, "We don't want only rejected ANC
members joining the party." Gabela insisted that those who left
the ANC will "never go back to the party and will remain in COPE
after the election."

Comment


6. (SBU) Thoughtful commentary by a political leader such as
Lucky Gabela is helpful in gaining a sense of COPE's perception
of its strengths and weaknesses in KwaZulu Natal ahead of the
election. The party has a lot of work to do before it can
seriously contend for political control of the province. COPE
will need to streamline its message, consolidate its membership,
and counter some serious political antagonism from the ANC for
the party to be successful here. Gabela may also need to grow
savvier in his use of the media buzz surrounding COPE.
Moreover, perhaps most importantly, for COPE to be successful
the party will need to avoid appearing like "a group of the
disgruntled" to voters in a province where there are several
other political choices. Gabela appears to be cognizant of how
hard COPE must work -- with limited time and resources -- in
coming months.
DERDERIAN