LACK OF CLEAR STRATEGY MAY DASH IFP LEADERS' CONFIDENCE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DURBAN 000008

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: LACK OF CLEAR STRATEGY MAY DASH IFP LEADERS' CONFIDENCE

DURBAN 00000008 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) Summary: Senior Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) leaders
provided insight into the party's campaign strategy and
prospects during a meeting with the Consul General, Poloff, and
Pon-Econ Assistant on January 13. Provincial Secretary
Bonginkosi Buthelezi and Provincial Treasurer Narend Singh
discussed the party's standing in the province and the general
state of affairs. They noted that the party hopes to win 51
percent of the vote in KwaZulu Natal, but admitted the IFP is
facing some serious challenges. End summary.

IFP Leaders Discuss Agenda, Challenges


2. (U) IFP provincial leaders Bonginkosi Buthelezi and Narend
Singh discussed the party's agenda and prospects during a
meeting with the Consul General, Poloff, and Pol-Econ Assistant
on January 13. Buthelezi and Singh began the meeting by noting
that the IFP's election manifesto launch would be in Soweto on
January 25, followed by a launch on February 14 in KwaZulu
Natal. They noted the party would focus on key issues such as
unemployment, education, and health, but that it is doing things
differently for this election than for previous polls. It will,
for example, make a more concerted effort to target youth.
Also, unveiling the IFP's provincial premier candidate -- the
IFP's national chairperson Zanele Magwaza-Msibi -- before the
election was part of this strategy and they acknowledged that
she was a risky choice. They are hoping the party's focus on
key issues and its new strategy will help the party achieve its
goal of 51 percent electoral support in the province; they
acknowledged that they would be happy with between 43 and 48
percent, and are confident the party will increase its seats in
the National Assembly.


3. (SBU) Neither leader expressed a clear way forward for the
party to achieve its goals and could not boil their agenda down
into short answers. (Note: Buthelezi and Singh passed out
copies of the party's draft political program, but did not
elaborate on items in the document. End Note.) Moreover,
despite their confidence both leaders acknowledged there are
serious challenges facing the IFP. First, they noted that
funding is the biggest problem the party is facing as it
campaigns for the election, and accused the ANC of using state
machinery to support its own campaign. They raised a concern
about the unbalanced distribution of resources -- the funding
for political parties -- but welcomed the provincial
legislature's decision to avail R20 million (USD 2 million) for
party funding for the election. Second, they acknowledged that
the "Zuma (African National Congress President Jacob Zuma)
factor" is a reality in the province and said they are devising
strategies to counter it. However, the National Prosecuting
Authority's pursuit of Zuma on charges of corruption, fraud,
racketeering, and money laundering is giving him more sympathy
from voters, they observed. Third, they said municipal IFP
leaders' poor performances have had a negative impact. Failure
to deliver is one of the reasons the IFP struggled in the 2004
election. Finally, many political analysts and pundits have
observed that the lack of a clear succession plan has hurt the
IFP. When asked whether there is a succession plan, Buthelezi
and Singh admitted IFP leader Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi may
step aside after the election and focus on his role as a
traditional leader.

IFP Leaders Speak to Intra-Party Cooperation


4. (SBU) Buthelezi and Singh noted the IFP is open to working
with other parties on key issues, and possibly down the line,
working in coalitions. (Note: Singh conceded that the IFP's
decision to work with the Democratic Alliance in 2004 was
ill-advised. End Note.) They confirmed that the IFP has held
bilateral talks with the African National Congress (ANC) to deal
with issues causing tension in the province such as street name
changes and the ANC's disciplinary steps toward IFP members of
legislature. They noted that the meetings with the ANC have
been positive and judge that relations with the ANC at the
national level are much better compared to what is happening
provincially. (Note: Buthelezi and Singh said that the IFP is
prepared to govern with the ANC depending on the election
outcome. End Note.) They also believe that the new leader of
the ANC in KwaZulu Natal, Zweli Mkhize, will help improve
relations between the two parties, given his more collaborative
style of leadership


5. (U) Buthelezi and Singh related that the IFP has met with
other opposition parties, including Democratic Alliance and the
United Democratic Movement, to discuss issues of common
interest. However, they indicated that they will not be forming
alliances before the elections and that any partnerships would
be formed after the election. They stated the reason the IFP is

DURBAN 00000008 002.2 OF 002


unwilling to form partnerships is because they think there might
be no outright winner. Buthelezi and Singh asserted that the
Congress of the People (COPE) will erase some of the ANC's
electoral support in the province and that the party may capture
at least 2 seats from the ANC. However, they believe that COPE
will not affect the IFP.

Comment


6. (SBU) Buthelezi and Singh's insights into the IFP's
electoral chances in the face of several challenges are useful
to understanding the political dynamic in KwaZulu Natal. They
both assessed that the environment in the province is conducive
for a free and fair election here. While the IFP is confident
about its chances in the province, they appear to lack a clear
strategy on how to achieve a favorable outcome. Even without a
clear strategy, however, Buthelezi and Singh's acknowledgement
that the IFP would be willing to work with other parties on key
issues and perhaps in coalitions means the party will remain a
player if it fails to meet its electoral goals.
DERDERIAN