Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09DURBAN7
2009-01-15 15:56:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Durban
Cable title:  

IFP YOUTH PRESIDENT HOPEFUL ABOUT PARTY'S CHANCES, BUT

Tags:  PGOV SF 
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INFO RUCNSAD/SADC COLLECTIVE
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: IFP YOUTH PRESIDENT HOPEFUL ABOUT PARTY'S CHANCES, BUT
CHALLENGES REMAIN

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DURBAN 000007

SENSITIVE
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FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: IFP YOUTH PRESIDENT HOPEFUL ABOUT PARTY'S CHANCES, BUT
CHALLENGES REMAIN

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1. (SBU) Summary: Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) Youth Brigade
President Pat Lebenya-Ntanzi believes her party can take back
the Kwa-Zulu Natal provincial government and keep the African
National Congress (ANC) from winning a two-thirds majority
nationally. She asserted that the formation of the Congress of
the People (COPE) would do more to hurt the ANC than hamper the
IFP and said her party's new campaigning techniques would be
successful when she met with visiting Pretoria Poloff and
Pol/Econ Assistant on January 14. Her judgments may overstate
the strength of the IFP in the province, but her observations
underscored her good grasp of the political landscape in South
Africa. End Summary.

"We Are Ready to Take Back KZN"


2. (U) Lebenya-Ntanzi met with visiting Pretoria Poloff and
Pol/Econ Assistant on January 14. She began the discussion by
saying that the IFP is expanding provincially and nationally.
She said, "We are poised to take back the province and keep the
ANC from winning a two-thirds majority." She noted that the
party's campaign for the election began in 2007 and that this
election marks the first time in the party's history that it
announced its provincial premier candidate -- the IFP's national
chairperson Zanele Magwaza-Msibi -- before voting takes place.
The party now has 200 youth branches across the country, but she
admitted it only has branches in six of the nine provinces.
Part of the IFP's strategy for expansion across the country
includes recruiting at high schools (for the first time) and at
universities. She said the youth brigade is now open for
members between the ages of 14 and 35 whereas before it was open
for members between 18 and 40. When asked how the IFP was
reaching its target demographic, she said it was relying on text
messages. (Note: She said the party is not yet on
facebook.com, which is where COPE is said to be drawing members.
End Note.)

IFP Identifies Core Campaign Issues . . .


3. (U) Lebenya-Ntanzi said the party's core campaign themes
will resonate with the public. She noted that the party will
promote programs that reduce unemployment, improve the quality
of education, and tackle HIV. She called the unemployment rate
in this country "unacceptable." She noted that the government's
Outcomes Based Education program is unpopular in the province

because teachers no longer know what is expected of them. She
said the party wants to find ways of tackling HIV that do not
include creating a developmental, welfare state. She expressed
confidence that the IFP could deliver on these themes better
than the ANC and that voters would recognize this about the
party.

. . . While Many Longstanding Problems Remain


4. (U) Lebenya-Ntanzi admitted that IFP faces many of the same
problems that have plagued the party for years. She said, "We
cannot attract young whites or Indians...that remains a
challenge." She noted that succession within the party is not
transparent and that even though the party successfully listed
its provincial and national candidates the political infighting
behind the process was "ugly." She expressed concern that the
party's leadership failed to understand just how "ugly" the list
process was because many of them had shut out those within the
party with leadership aspirations. (Note: At one point she
said that party elders often refer to those within the youth
brigade as "kids always asking for things." End Note.) She
related that Mangosuthu Buthelezi is "not ready to leave...and
it is his right to retain power if he chooses after the
election." At one point, she declared that the IFP wants to win
10 percent of the vote nationally, but it was clear by how she
mentioned this and how she emphasized winning the party's goal
of winning the province and keeping the ANC from gaining an
outright majority that achieving such a percentage may be
difficult.

On the ANC and COPE


5. (U) Lebenya-Ntanzi said that the IFP was not worried about
"Zuma factor" or the "COPE factor" undermining the party's
chances in the province. She said, "Zuma has been known for a
long time in this province. It is not like he is something new
for voters here." She asserted that the youth are not drawn to
Zuma or the ANC's agenda and cited how IFP councilors run the
ANC President's home ward and district in KwaZulu Natal. (Note:
She provided an alternative view of ANC Youth League President
Julius Malema, noting he "is a really good leader to work with."
She said the ANC Youth League and the IFP Youth Brigade work
well together on a national level because of Malema's

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willingness to listen to IFP concerns. End Note.)
Lebenya-Ntanzi also noted that the IFP is unconcerned about the
"COPE factor" because so far the new party is "only hurting the
ANC and the Democratic Alliance." She noted that many COPE
leaders may return to the ANC after the election if the new
party fails to deliver a solid showing. She thought it would be
surprising if COPE even gets two seats in the province.

Comment


6. (SBU) Lebenya-Ntanzi's comments are helpful because they
provide an IFP youth's perspective on the party's agenda--and
future--and on the political landscape in South Africa. Her
judgments may overstate the strength of the IFP in the province
as it could prove difficult for the party to win control here by
campaigning against a Zuma-led ANC, but helping keep the ANC
from winning a two-thirds majority seems possible, and her
observations underscored her good grasp of the political scene
in South Africa.
DERDERIAN