INKATHA FREEDOM PARTY UNLIKELY TO CONTEST VOTE IN KZN

UNCLAS DURBAN 000042

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR AF/S, INR
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: INKATHA FREEDOM PARTY UNLIKELY TO CONTEST VOTE IN KZN

REF: Durban 39


1. (SBU) Summary. Although late complaining from Inkatha
Freedom Party (IFP) officials about an unfair election
environment indicated that the party might contest the vote
count in KwaZulu Natal (KZN),intervention by former Nigerian
President Olesun Obasanjo seems to have persuaded the IFP
otherwise. IFP is humbled by defeat but hopes to rebuild. End
Summary.

Elections not Free and Fair, says IFP


2. (SBU) In the final days of their campaign, IFP leaders
accused the ANC of electoral foul play. At the launch of the
African Election Observer Team hosted by The African Center for
the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD) on April 17,
former IFP KZN Premier Lionel Mtshali decried the unfair
political environment in which the ANC, in his estimation, acted
with impunity. He also noted that the Independent Electoral
Commission (IEC) had not responded to the IFP's written
complaints of political intimidation and abuse of police
authority in Nongoma and elsewhere. In IFP press releases, IFP
parliamentarians said that the recent hand-over of houses to
former soldiers of uMkhonto weSizwe amounted to vote buying and
also that the IFP is considering legal action against the
state-owned South African Broadcasting Company (SABC) because of
a pro-ANC bias, which the IFP claims has `ruined any chance of a
free and fair election.'


3. (SBU) In response to the arrest of an election official who
allegedly stuffed a ballot box with ballots marked in favor of
the IFP, Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibi, IFP KZN Premier candidate,
accused the African National Congress (ANC ) and the IEC of
`conniving to discredit the name of the IFP' and claimed that
the accused is actually a member of the ANC. IFP President
Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi further alleged that the ballots
marked in favor of the IFP had been printed in the
ANC-controlled KZN Premier's office and then distributed in KZN
and Mpumalanga Province.

Obasanjo Intervenes


4. (SBU) Sean Callaghan and Vasu Gounden of ACCORD reported to
CG and P/E Officer on April 23 that Obasanjo had counseled
Buthelezi to accept the election results and not contest the
vote outcome. Indeed, Obasanjo promised to return to South
Africa and intervene should there be a vote-results dispute in
KZN. ACCORD reps also said that Obasanjo had met with senior
ANC officials in the province, both Premier Sibusiso Ndebele and
Premier-in-Waiting Zweli Mkhize, to urge them not to pursue a
legal case of defamation against Prince Buthelezi regarding his
allegations that ballots had been printed in the Premier's
office. Local media reported on April 24 that Ndebele told
reporters that he would put the lawsuit on hold.


5. (U) In a press conference attended by P/E Officer and P/E
Assistant on April 24, a defeated-looking Buthelezi reiterated
his concerns about election irregularities but said that he
accepted, `that the people of South Africa have spoken.'
Buthelezi often trailed off when speaking and seemed unusually
emotional. He promised to keep campaigning on behalf of his
party, but said that the IFP must rebuild itself. Buthelezi
still showed sparks of his old self, however, when asked about
the future of the IFP. When pressed by a reporter if the IFP
could recover from this defeat, Buthelezi declared, `Why not?
I've been at this longer than you!'


6. (SBU) Comment: Although Buthelezi would not confirm
outright that the IFP had foregone contesting the final results
in KZN, his demeanor at the April 24 event suggested that he
will take Obasanjo's advice and not file a formal complaint with
the IEC. It is unclear from Buthelezi's responses if the IFP
expects to find a place within an ANC-controlled provincial
legislature or even if the IFP would be able to stomach a
handout from the ANC. Buthelezi did, however, sheepishly remind
the audience that the IFP had reached out to the ANC when the
IFP took power in KZN in 1994, suggesting that the IFP is hoping
that the ANC will not deal them a final blow.

DERDERIAN