INDIANS, CIVIL SOCIETY, AND POLITICAL PARTIES IN KWAZULU

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DURBAN 000039

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: INDIANS, CIVIL SOCIETY, AND POLITICAL PARTIES IN KWAZULU
NATAL ANTICIPATE ELECTION DAY

REF: A) PRETORIA 664; B) PRETORIA 662; C) 08 DURBAN 66

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1. (SBU) Summary. Two weeks before national elections, KwaZulu
Natal (KZN) stakeholders provided a range of views to visiting
Political Counselor. The Indian vote is in question as many
feel abandoned by the African National Congress (ANC) while
others wonder if a Zuma administration will be more sympathetic
to Indian concerns. Civil society is concerned about the
integrity of democratic institutions but sees hope in what they
perceive as a more socialist-leaning ANC. Political parties in
KZN are confident they will loosen the ANC's grip on power. End
Summary.

Indian Perspectives on National Politics


2. (SBU) Political Counselor (Pol Counselor),Consul General
(CG),Political and Economic Officer (P/E Officer),and
Political and Economic Assistant (P/E Assistant) met with
retired Professor Syed Nadvi, Professor of Islamic Studies at
the University of Durban, and Ami Nanakchand, former
apartheid-era parliamentarian and retired political journalist,
on April 7. When discussing the April 6 National Prosecuting
Authority's (NPA) decision to drop charges against African
National Congress' (ANC) President, Jacob Zuma, Nanakchand
blithely replied that it was not surprising that Zuma had gotten
himself into trouble. Zuma, after all, had come from nothing
and had needed and received the financial support of Indians
when he returned to South Africa from exile. His financial
indiscretions began as his needs grew, observed Nanakchand.
Despite his troubles, Zuma is enjoying more support from the
Indian community than former South African President Thabo
Mbeki, and many Indians believe that Zuma is prepared to address
their concerns, according to our interlocutors.


3. (SBU) Indians think that the prosecution of prominent
Indians such as Schabir Shaik, former financial advisor to Zuma,
and Mac Maharaj, former Minister of Transport, was part of an
Mbeki strategy to single out and alienate Indians, said
Nanakchand. Indians were not happy with the treatment that
former Western Cape Premier Ebrahim Rasool received from the ANC
and had been reluctant to vote for the ANC as a result.
However, since Rasool's appointment as South African President
Kgalema Motlante's special advisor, Indians are now more likely
to vote for the ANC, said Nadvi. Also, the passing of the bill
on the recognition of Islamic marriages currently being
considered by Parliament may influence Indian and Pakistani
Muslims in South Africa to continue supporting the ANC, he added.


4. (SBU) In general, Nanakchand believes that the many decades
of contributions by Indians to the South African freedom
struggle have not been recognized or rewarded sufficiently by
the ANC. Indians do not feature prominently on the ANC
parliamentary lists, the annual national honors awards, and this
is a concern for many Indians, he added. Affirmative action,
which benefits the majority black community far more than any
other, is also a concern for the Indian community as they
believe it marginalizes them in the market, the workplace and
especially in tertiary institutions. (Note: Affirmative action
often includes racial quotas which leaves Indians and coloureds
out of the picture, as it is with whites. Even when there are
no qualified black candidates available, positions in public
universities, hospitals and para-statal institutions remain
vacant, ignoring qualified white, Indian and coloured
candidates. End Note). The ANC will continue to enjoy support
from the Indian community because of strong historical ties,
said Nanakchand, but the younger generation of Indians, born
after the end of apartheid, might not share the same historical
perspective, connections or values with the ANC. While
Nanakchand and Syed did not expect many Indians to abstain from
voting, Fatima Meer, South African freedom struggle icon with
whom Durban CG, Pol Counselor and P/E Officer met on April 8,
thinks otherwise. 'The ANC is full of corruption. I am very
disappointed in the ANC. There is nothing to vote for in this
election,' said Meer, repeating sentiments she expressed
publicly in 2008 (Ref C). Meer reported that she knew of many
Indians who have decided not to vote. This sentiment was also
expressed by Muhammad Dala, Deputy Principal of the Orient
Islamic School in Durban with whom P/E Officer spoke on March 3.


Civil Society: Concerns and Expectations


5. (SBU) Many in civil society are euphoric about the surge in
political interest and participation among the youth, said
Imraan Bacuus of the Center for Public Participation (CPP) with
whom CG, Pol Counselor, P/E Officer and P/E Assistant met on
April 8. Millions of new young -- often first time -- voters
from age 18 to 35 have registered, and political parties are
aggressively vying for their votes. Civil society is also

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pleased to see the revival of a public political debate, but
concerns are growing that government institutions such as the
NPA are increasingly biased toward the ANC, said Zamise Sbo of
CPP. Civil society is surprised that 15 years after the end of
apartheid, the basic integrity of democratic institutions must
still be safeguarded, he noted. The ANC has worked to
consolidate the center of power, and South African citizens are
either blind to this or very trusting of the ANC, said Sbo. As
a result, there are very few spaces for citizen engagement, Sbo
continued. Civil society sees the need for stronger civics and
citizenship education and not just a crash course right before
the election. 'Perhaps in 10 years people will become involved
in transforming South Africa and take part in changing the
values of our systems,' but most are still focused on current
injustices, said Sbo. When asked what civil society expects
from a Zuma administration, Bacuus replied that working class
people see an era of hope in Zuma. There is hope that there
will be a 'movement to the left' away from market capitalism so
that government can get more involved. Zuma's group seems to be
more open to ideas such as social welfare grants and a national
health plan, opined Bacuus. However, when pressed by Pol
Counselor, Bacuus acknowledged that a Zuma administration would
likely retain the prevailing macroeconomic policy and structure,
with some marginal changes that are more left-leaning. Sbo
predicted increased influence from the South African Communist
Party (SACP) under a Zuma administration.

Political Parties Fight for Political Power


6. (SBU) On April 9, Pol Counselor, P/E Officer and P/E
Assistant met separately with representatives from the Inkatha
Freedom Party (IFP),the Congress of the People (COPE),and the
Democratic Alliance (DA). The CG joined the final meeting. In
general, IFP, COPE, and DA see the NPA's decision to drop
charges against Zuma as a blow to democracy and the rule of law
in South Africa. 'This is another example of corruption and
bullying by the ANC. All opposition is just stifled,' said
Christian Msimang, Deputy Secretary General of the IFP. 'This
is Mugabe-style electioneering,' declared Narend Singh, IFP KZN
Provincial Treasurer. Chris Msibi, Head of COPE KZN Elections,
said that while many urban dwellers care about the Zuma case,
rural citizens are not familiar with the case and do not see it
as a deciding factor in how they will vote. The ANC 'has been
patriarchal' regarding civic awareness and has 'let the people
remain ignorant,' said Msibi.


7. (SBU) In terms of campaigning, the IFP is making a national
push against the ANC, but limited funding has restricted efforts
outside KZN. Also, Msimang admitted that Prince Mangosuthu
Buthelezi, President of the IFP, is more popular than the party,
which is often seen as a waning tribally-based Zulu-only party.
Singh was confident that the ANC would get less than 60 percent
of the national vote. (Note: In 2004, the ANC won 69 percent
of the vote; and with 'floor-crossing' increased their
parliamentary super majority to 70 percent. End Note). Pat
Lebenya-Ntanzi, IFP Youth League President, told P/E Officer and
P/E Assistant on March 3 that her party expects to win 60
percent of the KZN vote. Also, the IFP has established a team
of 4000 volunteers who will conduct door-to-door visits in the
run up to the election. Msibi predicts that COPE will take 15
to 20 percent of the KZN vote, although he admits that the
challenge of building a new political party is, 'tearing us
apart' (Ref A). Msibi added that COPE hopes to reduce the ANC's
national majority to less than 51 percent.


8. (SBU) If the election were held now, the DA would take 17
percent of the national vote, according to DA polling data
shared by DA Parliamentarian Gareth Morgan. He claims that seven
percent of black South Africans currently support the DA at the
national level and three percent in KZN. In the final two weeks
of its campaign, the DA will run a 'Stop Zuma' poster campaign
to try to lure undecided voters. The key to victory, however,
is voter turnout, added Morgan (Ref B). No one can predict how
many people will actually show up at the polls, a factor which
significantly increases the polling data margin of error.
Pollsters have never been able to accurately predict IFP turnout
and as many as a third of Indians are still undecided, Morgan
pointed out. It is not surprising then that Morgan reported to
P/E Officer and P/E Assistant on March 3 that the DA plans to
send out 1.5 million text messages on election day as part of it
get-out-the-vote campaign.


9. (SBU) The sentiments expressed by the DA that the
unpredictability of undecided voters and voter turnout will
greatly impact the results of the South African election are
underscored by the recently released Ipsos polling data which
show that 850,000 to 900,000 voters (or 4.2 percent) have not
yet decided how they will vote. If Indian voters abstain in

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large numbers, for example, smaller parties such as COPE, DA and
Minority Front may see their political presence diminish in KZN.
If Indians turn out in large numbers, however, they may help
decide who between COPE and the DA will become the official
opposition party in the national legislature. Also, if IFP
supporters vote in large numbers, the IFP may yet hold on to
political power in KZN.


10. (SBU) Comment: It was unsurprising that none of the
political party representative we talked to saw an opinion poll
that they were prepared to trust or believe. As such, public
pronouncements of likely vote performance are speculative at
best. Predictions by partisans, therefore show no limits and
argue that their party's vote performance will be greater than
anyone expected; and their opponents would do worse than ever.
The local absence of dependable survey research results and
opinion polling systems leaves likely vote results and
distributions in doubt. In a conversation with a senior
investigative political reporter for one of Durban's major
dailies, Pol Counselor was told that the majority of South
Africans were happy that Zuma's corruption charges were dropped
and they don't care about all this stuff about political
corruption. They will support the ANC no matter what the press
or opposition parties say. He further suggested that ANC
supporters 'did not see anything wrong with Zuma taking money
from an Indian.' In light of this emotional quality of the
political debate and the degree to which it reflects the wider
community's sentiments, it will be curious to see, after the
fact, just how this election will wind up and how South Africans
will react to it. End Comment.
DERDERIAN