Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09DUBLIN362
2009-09-11 16:28:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dublin
Cable title:  

IRISH REFERENDUM ON LISBON TREATY: THE ISSUES AND

Tags:  PGOV PREL EI EUN 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 000362 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EI EUN
SUBJECT: IRISH REFERENDUM ON LISBON TREATY: THE ISSUES AND
THE PLAYERS

REF: A. DUBLIN 298

B. DUBLIN 236

C. DUBLIN 220

D. DUBLIN 213

DUBLIN 00000362 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: DCM Robert J. Faucher. Reasons 1.4(b/d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 000362

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EI EUN
SUBJECT: IRISH REFERENDUM ON LISBON TREATY: THE ISSUES AND
THE PLAYERS

REF: A. DUBLIN 298

B. DUBLIN 236

C. DUBLIN 220

D. DUBLIN 213

DUBLIN 00000362 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: DCM Robert J. Faucher. Reasons 1.4(b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: After deciding against the EU Lisbon Treaty
in a first referendum on June 12, 2008, the Irish will vote
on Lisbon again on October 2. With the campaign in full
swing, a recent poll gives the "yes" side 46 percent with 29
percent opposed and 25 percent undecided. This represents an
8 point drop in Lisbon support compared to the previous poll
in May. The issues essentially boil down to two questions:
(1) whether the EU can be trusted to respect Irish
distinctiveness; and (2) whether looser or tighter EU ties
will result in a more prosperous and self-determining
Ireland. Many in the pro-Lisbon camp claim, perhaps
exaggeratedly, that the vote,s outcome will be fundamental
to Ireland,s future, and the idea that a "yes" vote would be
a safe vote in a bad economy is proving quite powerful. The
"no" side,s emphasis on Irish distinctiveness also
resonates, but the anti-Lisbon camp -- for the moment -- is
largely an uncoordinated gaggle of groups outside the
mainstream. END SUMMARY.

--------------
THE ISSUES: WHO DO YOU TRUST?
--------------


2. (C) After the "no" vote in the last referendum, the
government went back to its EU partners and received
assurances, separate from the Treaty itself, that Lisbon
would not call into question Irish prerogatives in the areas
deemed most important to voters: Irish military neutrality,
taxation, the right to life, education and the family, and
the protection of workers, rights. The Irish also received
a guarantee that Ireland would continue to have a
Commissioner in the European Commission. All these issues --
except for retention of a Commisioner -- remain in debate,
however, because mostof the anti-Lisbon groups do not
believe these garantees are reliable. Supporters of the
Treaty like Dick Roche, Minister of State for European
Affars, say that the guarantees are "iron-clad" an cannot
be revoked. Typical of the "no" side,s iew is what Sinn
Fein Vice President Mary Lou Mconald told us: "The so-called

guarantees are noting more than decisions that can be
changed at any time. The Treaty itself has not changed one
bit."


3. (C) Uncertainty about the implications of the Charter of
Fundamental Rights of the European Union plays an important
role in this question of reliability. Previously an EU
political declaration of disputed legal status outlining the
rights of European citizens and residents, the Charter is now
incorporated into the Lisbon Treaty as a legally binding part
of the Treaty. The left-wing,s anti-Lisbon camp believes
that the European Court of Justice (ECJ ) the EU,s version
of a Supreme Court) will, based on the Charter, rule in
future cases involving workers, rights in favor of free
movement of low-wage labor regardless of national labor
legislation. Michael O,Brien, Socialist Party National
Committee member, told Poloff that this would result in
legally binding ECJ jurisprudence undermining the rights of
Irish workers. From the right wing, the abortion argument of
the "no" side is essentially similar; the ECJ could interpret
the Charter as enshrining the right to an abortion in EU law,
thereby forcing Ireland to legalize abortion.

--------------
THE ESTABLISHMENT UNANIMOUS FOR YES
--------------


4. (C) A relevant aspect of this campaign is the notable
contrast between who is on the "yes" side and who is on the
"no" side. The political and economic establishment is lined
up virtually unanimously in favor of the Lisbon Treaty.
Every major political party, all of the recognized business
groups, and the Irish Congress of Trade Unions are all
actively advocating a "yes" vote. Their message is that full
participation in the EU, as symbolized by a "yes" vote on
Lisbon, is crucial to the recovery of Ireland,s economy and
to Ireland,s political influence as a part of a globally
engaged EU. Jill Donoghue, Director General of the
Dublin-based Institute of International and European Affairs,
summed up this viewpoint well, "an Ireland in Europe is an
Ireland in the center of things; an Ireland outside Europe is
an isolated island on the periphery."


5. (C) COMMENT: With anti-establishment feelings running high
in Ireland right now, in the midst of a contracting economy,

DUBLIN 00000362 002.2 OF 003


rising unemployment and with government austerity measures on
the horizon, the establishment,s pro-Lisbon unanimity may
turn out to be a disadvantage at the ballot box. In a poll
this month, support for governing party Fianna Fail fell to
17 percent of respondents, a nearly 60 percent drop from its
showing of 42 percent in the May 2007 national elections.
END COMMENT.

--------------
THE "NO" SIDE,S MISSING CENTER
--------------


6. (C) Unlike the pro-Lisbon camp, the "no" side lacks not
only the personal visibility of mainstream politicians but
also, in contrast to the run-up to the first referendum, a
figure who can bring together and inspire a larger movement.
After failing to win a European Parliament seat in the June
elections, the Irish entrepreneur Declan Ganley, the highly
effective voice of the anti-Lisbon camp in 2008 and founder
of the anti-Lisbon Libertas Party, decided he would not
participate in the campaign this time around (refs C and D).
This has left the field to anti-Lisbon campaigners who so far
are either relatively anonymous or are readily categorized as
members of right- or left-wing interest groups. COMMENT:
Since a lively anti-Lisbon interview by Ganley published on
September 10 in the Wall Street Journal Europe, there is
growing speculation that Ganley might join the "no" side
campaign after all. Such a development could significantly
energize the anti-Lisbon camp. END COMMENT.

--------------
THE LEFT WING OF THE "NO" SIDE
--------------


7. (C) Most groups on the "no" side this time around approach
Lisbon from the left wing, motivated primarily by a desire to
protect workers, rights and to safeguard Irish military
neutrality (see paras 2 and 3 above). Most prominent in the
left-wing anti-Lisbon camp are Sinn Fein, the Socialist Party
and the trade union Unite. But these groups are largely on
the fringe of the left wing. Sinn Fein comes in fourth among
Irish political parties at best, far behind the two principal
parties, and holding only one-fifth the number of Irish
parliament seats held by the pro-Lisbon Labour Party. Unlike
Sinn Fein,s nearest competitor in terms of percentage of
vote, the pro-Lisbon Greens who are currently in the
government, Sinn Fein is also without a realistic prospect of
particiQtion in a governing coalition. (NOTE: Some Green
and Labour party activists oppose Lisbon, but the parties
themselves support it. END NOTE.) The other anti-Lisbon
party on the Left, the Socialist PQty, holds no Irish
parliament seats and is represented in the European
Parliament by only one MEP. The trade union picture is
murkier, with the 60,000-member Unite Trade Union, one of the
largest in Ireland, coming out against Lisbon, but SIPTU, the
largest trade union, and the Irish Congress of Trade Unions
in the "yes" camp. How rank-and-file union members will vote
remains unclear, with no polls focused on union members
available.

--------------
THE RIGHT WING OF THE "NO" SIDE
--------------


8. (C) This time around, the only active group on the right
wing of the anti-Lisbon camp is COIR, which claims to be a
group formed solely to oppose Lisbon, but is widely believed
to be made up mainly of Catholic conservatives who believe
that Ireland will be forced to legalize abortion because of
the Charter of Fundamental Rights, inclusion in the Lisbon
Treaty. COIR is waging a noticeable poster campaign,
asserting in short, easy-to-remember slogans that Lisbon
would mean a lower minimum wage in Ireland, a loss of
influence within the EU for Ireland as a small country, and a
loss of Irish independence. But our contacts widely share
the assessment of Irish Foreign Minister Micheal Martin, who
has publicly accused COIR of being a shadowy "front
organization" for a pro-life group that is intentionally
distorting the Lisbon debate.

--------------
COMMENT: LACK OF TRUST VS. FEAR OF ISOLATION
--------------


9. (C) As of this writing, neither side in the campaign has
clearly sparked momentum toward either possible outcome.
The key to the campaign will be to convince the undecided;
this pits a currently marginalized, disunited "no" side
against a cohesive, middle-of-the-road establishment. Both
sides realize that the Irish economy and jobs are foremost in
people,s minds, not grandiose ideas about the future of

DUBLIN 00000362 003.2 OF 003


Europe and Ireland's place in it. With the Central Bank of
Ireland predicting Ireland,s economy will contract by 8.3
percent in 2009, and unemployment having ballooned to 12.4
percent (and expected to go higher),the government,s
unpopularity could tip the balance to the "no" side.
Alternatively, the establishment,s argument that Ireland
should not cast itself adrift from the EU during this
economic storm could win the day. Underlying all of this is
an unspoken conflict between a lack of trust in an opaque EU,
and a fear of isolation in bad economic times. END COMMENT.
FAUCHER