LISBON TREATY RE-RUN SET FOR OCTOBER 2

UNCLAS DUBLIN 000260

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI
SUBJECT: LISBON TREATY RE-RUN SET FOR OCTOBER 2

REF: DUBLIN 236 AND PREVIOUS


1. (SBU) Summary: Ireland will hold a second referendum on
the Lisbon Treaty on Friday, October 2. There is a general
consensus in Irish political circles that the leaders of the
nation dropped the ball during the first referendum on the
Lisbon Treaty, which was defeated in June 2008. The 'Yes'
campaigners will be anxious not to make the same mistakes
again. End summary.


2. (U) On July 8, Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Brian Cowen
confirmed that Ireland will hold a second referendum on the
Lisbon Treaty on Friday, October 2. The vote is required
following the rejection of the Treaty by the electorate in
June 2008. The Irish government believes the Treaty will
pass in October, having secured a series of legal guarantees
on issues of concern to the electorate such as neutrality,
taxation, and ethics. The necessary legislation (28th
Amendment of the Constitution (Treaty of Lisbon) Bill 2009)
will pass through parliament on June 9, prior to the
parliament's summer recess.


3. (U) In response to the announcement, Minister for Foreign
Affairs Micheal Martin said that the Treaty is in Ireland's
best interest, stating: "The government believes that this
treaty is good for Ireland and good for Europe." Fine Gael,
the largest opposition party (which supports the Treaty)
welcomed the announcement, saying they would campaign
strenuously for a 'Yes' vote in the national interest. The
Employers Organization and the Irish Business and Employers
Confederation (IBEC) also support the Treaty. Following the
announcement of October's poll, IBEC's European Affairs
Director Brendan Butler said "A positive result is vital to
ensure that Ireland remains a constructive partner in Europe
and is an essential building block on the road to economic
recovery."


4. (SBU) Sinn Fein remained the only political party in
Ireland opposed to the Treaty. Its European spokesperson,
Aengus O Snodaigh, publicly criticized the Taoiseach for
holding a second referendum. Declan Ganley and his Libertas
party, which bankrolled the 'No' campaign in 2008, was
notably silent, reinforcing the belief that Libertas will not
be a factor in the second referendum following Ganley's
humiliating defeat in the European Parliament elections in
June 2009.


5. (SBU) Comment: There is a general consensus in Irish
political circles that the leaders of the nation dropped the
ball during the first referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, which
was defeated in June 2008. The 2008 'Yes' campaign started
too late, was not able to adequately explain the complex
Treaty document, and allowed the 'No' side to control the
agenda (Refs). They will be anxious not to make the same
mistakes again.
FAUCHER