GUARANTEES SET STAGE FOR SECOND IRISH REFERENDUM

UNCLAS DUBLIN 000236

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI
SUBJECT: GUARANTEES SET STAGE FOR SECOND IRISH REFERENDUM
ON LISBON TREATY IN OCTOBER

REF: A. DUBLIN 220

B. DUBLIN 30

C. 08 DUBLIN 334

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) During the June 18-19 European Council meeting, the
Irish government received guarantees on a number of specific
issue, providing it with the justification to proceed with a
re-run of the Lisbon Treaty referendum -- most likely on
October 2 ,2009. All major political parties are expected to
back a "Yes" vote, while the most visible "No" campaigners in
2008 -- Declan Ganley's Libertas organization and Sinn Fein
-- faltered in the local and European Parliament elections on
June 5 and are not expected to be strong campaigners in
October. Indications are positive that the Irish electorate
will approve the Lisbon Treaty the second time around.
Nonetheless, complacency of "Yes" supporters has been singled
out as a leading cause of the defeat of the Treaty in June

2008. The "Yes" campaign -- and especially the major
political parties -- will have to guard carefully to ensure
this doesn't happen again. End Summary.

EU Council Provides Guarantees to Ireland
--------------


2. (U) In advance of the June 18-19 EU summit, Taoiseach
Brian Cowen sent a letter to all EU member states expressing
the position that without a series of guarantees that had
been promised Ireland by the European Council following the
Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty in June 2008 (Ref B),he
would find it difficult to authorize a second vote on the
Lisbon Treaty. In response, the European Council approved
guarantees to the Irish that would exempt them from
provisions of the Treaty relating to taxation policy, the
right to life, education and the family, Ireland's
traditional policy of military neutrality, and other social
issues, including workers rights. The guarantees will not
change the text of the treaty nor will they require
re-ratification of the Treaty by the other member states.

"Yes" Campaign Kicks Off
--------------


3. (U) On June 21, Cowen announced that he would be leading
the "Yes" campaign for the second Lisbon Treaty referendum.
(Note: In June 2008 the treaty was rejected by a vote of
53.4% to 46.6%.) Cowen added that the date for Lisbon II
would be finalized by June 26, with October 2 being the most
likely selection. In addition to political figures, a group
of well-known sport and entertainment personalities have
launched an "Ireland for Europe" initiative to support the
"Yes" cmpaign.

"No" Campaign Faltering
--------------


4. (U) During the 2008 referendum, th two most visible
leaders of the "No" campaign were Declan Ganley of the
Libertas organization andSin Fein. Following defeat of
both Ganley and inn Fein's Mary Lou McDonald in the MEP
election, both organizations have been badly hobbled. The
concerns of many other opponents of the Lisbon Traty, who
were largely one-issue oters, have been addressed by the EU
guarantees. While the "Yes" campaign appears to be fielding
a star-studded cast of supporters, no one has stepped up to
champion a Lisbon II defeat.

Comment
--------------


5. (SBU) It would seem that the referendum is the
government's to lose. In addition to the sputtering "No"
campaign, recent polls indicate that the Irish electorate is
not inclined to abandon the EU during the current deeply
troubled economic times. Having already unleashed a
staggering defeat on the Fianna Fail/Green governing
coalition in the June local and European elections (Ref A),
the Irish voting public is not likely to feel that it needs
to use the referendum to make another political statement and
further punish its elected officials. Nonetheless,
complacency of "Yes" supporters has been singled out as a
leading cause of the defeat of the Treaty in June 2008. The
"Yes" campaign -- and especially the major political parties
-- will have to guard carefully against this happening again.
FAUCHER