JEM THREATENS TO EXPAND WAR IN PURSUIT OF PEACE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 000283

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PHUM QA SU
SUBJECT: JEM THREATENS TO EXPAND WAR IN PURSUIT OF PEACE
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DOHA 00000283 001.2 OF 002

(SBU) KEY POINTS
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-- The Justice and Equality Movement's (JEM) representative
in Doha, Abu Bakr Al-Qadi, told Special Envoy for Sudan Scott
Gration April 28 that JEM believes the Government of Sudan is
serious about peace but is no partner in the pursuit of it.

-- Al-Qadi said the way to bring about peace is by taking the
war to Khartoum and the country's center. Only then would
the GOS negotiate seriously and agree to a fair and equitable
settlement of ongoing disputes.

-- JEM seeks a final settlement of the dispute in Darfur that
would involve economic development.

-- Wanting to avoid the mistakes made in southern Sudan, JEM
sees a framework agreement, perhaps in the context of a trial
three-month cease-fire, while maintaining its arms as the
best negotiating path forward.

-- Special Envoy for Sudan Scott Gration encouraged JEM to
transform itself into a political movement, vice army.

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(SBU) COMMENT
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-- JEM sees itself, and acts as, the only armed and real
Darfur opposition to the National Congress Party and will not
settle easily. All it wants are more allies in its fight
against Khartoum. Threats to take it all the way to
Khartoum, to South Kordofan, and to absorb the remaining
armed movements in Darfur could be prophetic. The concern is
not just that JEM may destabilize Khartoum or the eastern
portion of the Three Areas, but that it may also ensure the
renewal inter-state conflict between Chad and Sudan, and
further upset the fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

End Key Points and Comments.


1. (SBU) In an April 28 meeting with Special Envoy (SE) for
Sudan Gration (joined by Ambassador, S/USSES Deputy Tim
Shortley and P/E Chief Rice),the permanent representative in
Doha of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) Abu Bakr
Al-Qadi underscoredQt the shortest way to a cease-fire in
Darfur is by negotiations of AU/UN's Chief Mediator's
framework agreement. This is because it is essential not to
repeat the mistakes that were made in the Abuja negotiations
of the Darfur Peace Agreement.


2. (SBU) Al-Qadi suggested that it was possible to implement
a cease-fire for three months, provided that a framework
agreement comes out of it at the end. JEM, he said, seeks a
"final solution that would involve economic development."


3. (SBU) Al-Qadi asked the Special Envoy why the
international community is not "protecting our people. Why
are there no airplanes?" He said JEM wants to build "an
alliance of the marginalized against the Government of Sudan
(GOS)."


4. (SBU) Al-Qadi said JEM believes the GOS is serious about
peace but is no partner in the pursuit of it. "The GOS only
understands the stick," he said. Al-Qadi said the way to
bring about is by taking the war to Khartoum and the
country's center. With displaced everywhere within the
center would the GOS negotiate seriously and agree to a fair
and equitable settlement of disputes.


5. (SBU) Special Envoy Gration, after listening intently to
numerous examples of GOS failings and a long history of
disappointments for the Darfur opposition, said he agreed
with JEM that there should be no offensive flights over
Darfur.


6. (SBU) SE Gration challenged JEM to transform itself from
an army into the political movement (stress on movement) that
its name implies. He said the people of Darfur will move
forward toward prosperity when they have the basic
necessities of life. The residents of Darfur need to see
assistance channeled to people living normally outside
Internally Displaced Person (IDP) camps.


7. (SBU) Success, SE Gration noted, can be measured by the
population of Darfur that leaves the camps and leads a normal
life. This is what he seeks in Darfur and all of Sudan: a
normal life for its inhabitants. The country has known war
since its independence, and the Qatar Initiative on Darfur is

DOHA 00000283 002.2 OF 002

SUBJECT: JEM THREATENS TO EXPAND WAR IN PURSUIT OF PEACE
an opportunity that all groups and the GOS must seize to
bring the fighting to an end. He encouraged JEM, again, to
transform itself into a political movement and take advantage
of this opportunity. We must, he underscored, measure
progress by the quality of life in Darfur and not the
quantity of weapons held by the opposition groups.


8. (U) SE Gration has cleared this message.

LeBaron