DJIBOUTIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ADVOCATES QUICK PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000042

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SBU DELIBERATIVE PROCESS
DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E, ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA-WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019-01-15
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO MOPS SO DJ XTAG
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ADVOCATES QUICK PRESIDENTIAL
SUCCESSION IN SOMALIA

REF: a) A. DJIBOUTI 18, b) B. ADDIS ABABA 49 (NOTAL)

CLASSIFIED BY: Eric M. Wong, DCM, U.S. Department of State, U.S. Embassy, Djibouti; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Sharing views he said he had conveyed to
Djiboutian President Guelleh in a recent "brainstorming
session," Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf said the
Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) must be
pushed to name new parliamentarians in time to elect a new
President of Somalia before the end of January. As a
fall-back, he proposed that the current Transitional
Federal Parliament elect the President, while the ARS names
the Prime Minister. According to Youssouf, however, Sheikh
Sharif may not be content to replace Nur Adde as Prime
Minister, but rather seeks to be President of Somalia. FM
Youssouf reiterated claims that Yemen, Sudan, and Saudi
Arabia may provide financial or material assistance to
support joint TFG-ARS security forces. Youssouf welcomed
visiting USAU Amb. Simon's report of progress in mobilizing
new forces for the African Union Mission in Somalia
(AMISOM),and raised the idea of deploying troops from the
East Africa Standby Brigade (EASBRIG) to Somalia, to
reinforce AU forces there, if given sufficient funding and
equipment. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Ambassador, visiting Ambassador to the African Union
Amb. Simon, USAU CJTF-HOA Country Coordination Element
(CCE) Captain Bart Moore, and DCM met with Djiboutian
Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf on January 11.

NEED FOR ALL-INCLUSIVE PARLIAMENT TO SELECT UNITY PRESIDENT


3. (C) Somalia is only now just emerging from an 18-year
"gestation" period of peace initiatives, Youssouf said,
with the "4.5" clan representation formula marking what he
hoped would be the last phase of clan-based solutions.
Aluding to the Council of Islamic Courts' opposition to
Ethiopian intervention, Youssouf said the Somali political
process had been "polluted" by "religious principles," with
Somalis having spent the last two years calling for holy
war against foreign occupiers. However, with the recent
resignation of TFG President Abdillahi Yusuf, and the
withdrawal of Ethiopian military forces, Somalia now faced
a new reality, as it lacked these justifications for
continued conflict. Youssouf confirmed that TFG-ARS talks,
under the auspices of the UN, would resume in Djibouti the
week of January 15.


4. (C) FM Youssouf underscored that it would be preferable
for a newly formed "all-inclusive" parliament to name the
next president of Somalia, in the wake of Yusuf's December
29 resignation. TFG and moderate ARS representatives
needed to form a new unity government for Somalia by
January 29, in accordance with provisions of Somalia's
transitional charter calling for a new president to be
named within 30 days of a predecessor's resignation.
Youssouf called for international pressure on Somali
parties to name additional MPs--and subsequently a new
president--"immediately." Otherwise, Somalia once again
risked protracted consultations continuing for years.


5. (C) Youssouf said that ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif Sheikh
Ahmed had been told to identify 200 additional MPs
representing the ARS (in accordance with the November 25
Djibouti Process communique) by January 20; this new
expanded parliament would then collectively select a new
president. If, however, the ARS failed to observe the
deadline for naming new MPs, Youssouf said he had proposed
an alternative to Djibouti's President Guelleh: that the
current 275-member Transitional Federal Parliament elect a
new president to replace Yusuf, while the ARS then select
the head of government (i.e., prime minister). Youssouf
urged that international partners press the ARS to name its
new members quickly, but be ready to endorse a decision by
the current parliament as a fall-back position.

ARS CHAIRMAN REPORTEDLY SEEKS SOMALI PRESIDENCY


6. (C) According to Youssouf, Sheikh Sharif could easily

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displace current Somali PM Nur Adde, who lacked political
vision and charisma. However, rather than be content to
serve as prime minister, Sheikh Sharif's ambition drove him
to seek to be president of Somalia, Youssouf said. Egypt
was prepared to organize a meeting with ARS hard-liners in
Asmara, Youssouf added. The GODJ had told Sharif that
having political vision and charisma were more important
than dispersing money, and had urged Sharif to return from
Libya, where he had traveled seeking financial assistance.


7. (C) Calling Sheikh Sharif "headstrong" and "not easily
manipulated," Youssouf noted that in early 2007, following
Ethiopia's entry into Somalia, Djibouti had counseled
Sheikh Sharif to acknowledge the legitimacy of the TFG and
to leverage its recognition; Sheikh Sharif had refused.
Sheikh Sharif now faced a weak prime minister, and a
sympathetic international community, but was young and
lacking in experience, Youssouf said.

AMISOM FORCE GENERATION


8. (SBU) Noting the importance of maintaining progress on
security, as well as on the political track, Amb. Simon
reviewed the current status of force generation for AMISOM
(ref B),as well as the TFG Defense Minister's claim to be
able to muster six battalions of troops. Amb. Simon noted
that AMISOM had been "holding its own" during the Ethiopian
withdrawal, and had faced "no onslaught" by newly
emboldened fighters.


9. (C) FM Youssouf welcomed news of progress on force
generation, explaining that the GODJ had assessed that
AMISOM would not/not be strengthened, and had therefore
focused on the importance of empowering Somali forces. He
reiterated (reftel) that several countries may support
joint TFG-ARS security forces: at the recently concluded
Sanaa Forum, Yemen had announced $1.5 million in support
for salaries and light equipment; Sudan may provide food
and other rations; and Saudi Arabia, while complaining
about the worldwide economic crisis, had nevertheless been
"approached" to provide a total of $6-10 million to pay
salaries (of approximately $100/month) for one year.


10. (C) Reiterating observations made earlier in the week
to Ambassador (septel),by EASBRIG commander Brigadier
General Osman Nour Soubagale (seconded from Djibouti to
EASBRIG in Addis Ababa),Youssouf asserted that EASBRIG
troops could reinforce existing AMISOM forces, in the
absence of additional battalions from the AU or the UN.
EASBRIG troops were operationally ready, but would require
financial assistance to deploy, he said. The deployment of
EASBRIG troops would be an alternative only if AMISOM could
not be strengthened, Youssouf added. (NOTE. In a separate
meeting with Ambassador, the EASBRIG commander asserted
that some 6,000 EASBRIG troops were ready to deploy to
Somalia, including troops from Djibouti. END NOTE.)


11. (C) COMMENT. FM Youssouf's frank critique of Somali
leaders reflects that he is one of the most prominent Afar
members (and therefore a minority) in Djibouti's
predominantly ethnic Issa government. While he shared his
views as conveyed to Djiboutian President Guelleh, he
avoided discussion of the Pres. Guelleh's response. Having
hosted several rounds of TFG-ARS talks since May 2008,
Djibouti is eager to build on their momentum, particularly
as continued instability in neighboring Somalia directly
affects Djibouti--e.g., through increased refugee flows,
and higher shipping insurance premiums due to fears of
Somali piracy. While the Djiboutians are floating the idea
of an EASBRIG role in Somalia, it is unclear that there is
sufficient EASBRIG capability to perform this role without
major additional support. END COMMENT.


12. (U) USAU Amb. Simon cleared this message.
SWAN

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