SHIA BUSINESS LEADERS MAKE A STRONG SHOWING IN AL-AHSA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAHRAN 000219

SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS TO NEA/ARP JEREMY BERNDT AND JOSHUA HARRIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON KIRF KISL KDEM SA
SUBJECT: SHIA BUSINESS LEADERS MAKE A STRONG SHOWING IN AL-AHSA
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE ELECTIONS

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CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin Kreutner, Acting Consul General, EXEC, DOS.

REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
SUMMARY

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1. (SBU) In the July 25 al-Ahsa Chamber of Commerce elections,
Shia candidates won five of the eight eligible board positions,
with the remaining three going to Sunnis. In the previous
elections in 2005, the ratio was the reverse in favor of Sunni
candidates. One of the Shia victors attributed this shift to
the increased organizational efforts among the Shia candidates
and a procedural change in the voting regulations. He also
attributed his desire and effort to run in the election to his
participation in a USG-sponsored visitor program in 2007. END
SUMMARY.



THE AL-AHSA OASIS

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2. (SBU) Al-Ahsa is an oasis about 60 kilometers inland from the
Persian Gulf with a population of approximately 1 million
residents, 50% - 60% estimated to be Shia and the rest Sunni.
The agricultural industry is the most important economic sector
of al-Ahsa, as it has access to large underground water aquifers
(which have incidentally been substantially depleted in recent
decades).



AL-AHSA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE

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3. (SBU) The al-Ahsa Chamber of Commerce consists of twelve
board members, eight of whom are elected. The other four
members are appointed by the Ministry of Commerce. In the
previous elections, which took place in 2005, five Sunni
candidates and three Shia candidates were elected. The Ministry
then appointed three Shia and one Sunni board member, resulting
in a 50/50 split along sectarian lines. However, the chamber
has not had a good reputation over the past four years as being
effective or addressing the needs of the business community.
PolOff has heard these criticisms from both Shia and Sunni
business people from al-Ahsa and other parts of the Eastern
Province.



CHAMBER VOTING REGULATIONS BENEFIT SHIA

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4. (C) Sadek al-Ramadan (strictly protect),a Shia business
leader and political activist in al-Ahsa, won a seat in the
al-Ahsa Chamber of Commerce elections on July 25. In an August
17 meeting, al-Ramadan told PolOff that the 2009 elections
resulted in five Shia and three Sunni winners, a reversal of the
previous election where Sunnis won five seats and Shia three.
When asked what caused this shift, he noted that a change in
voting regulations may have been partially responsible. In
previous elections, registered members of the chamber voted
eight times, one for each available seat. However, this led to
candidates forming alliances of eight candidates who campaigned
as a block. Generally, all eight members of the alliance would
win all eight eligible seats, pushing out independent
candidates.




5. (C) Al-Ramadan explained that this alliance would only allow
two or three Shia candidates to campaign on their "ticket,"
thereby effectively limiting the number of Shia that could
plausibly win. This year, however, the voting regulations were
modified, and each registered member could only cast two
at-large votes, which broke up the possibility of creating an
alliance. This increased the chance for independent candidates
to win a seat regardless of their affiliation with the alliance.
(NOTE: The appointed board members have not yet been chosen by

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the ministry. END NOTE.)



SHIA BUSINESS LEADERS MOBILIZE

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6. (C) Al-Ramadan explained that another reason for the
Sunni-Shia shift in the election results was due to increased
organization and voter mobilization efforts on the part of the
Shia business leaders. The Shia business leaders aggressively
lobbied the eligible Shia voters (registered members of the
chamber),who, according to al-Ramadan, make up 38% of the
total. They focused on getting people out to vote and
approximately 1,200 people voted, twice the amount expected.
Al-Ramadan attributes this large turnout and its
disproportionately high ratio of Shia participants to be the
other key factor in securing a substantial gain in elected Shia
board members in the chamber.




7. (C) In September 2007, al-Ramadan participated in a
PD-sponsored International Visitor program to the U.S. with
several other Shia political activists from the Eastern
Province. He told PolOff, "If I did not go to the U.S., I would
not have run in the election." He realized after visiting U.S.
civic leaders and institutions that his sect is not "empowered"
in Saudi Arabia. "I did not know what empowered meant,"
al-Ramadan explained, "but now I know it's the most important
thing for my community."



COMMENT

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8. (C) The newly elected board members of the al-Ahsa Chamber of
Commerce, like al-Ramadan, should bring new energy and ideas to
a struggling business institution. Its reputation as an
ineffective chamber of commerce is well known in the Eastern
Province. The Mayor of al-Ahsa, Fahad bin Mohammed al-Jubair,
has taken great strides in revitalizing the rundown
infrastructure and buildings in al-Ahsa and is keen on
invigorating the local economy. He would likely welcome and
support a proactive and effective chamber. END COMMENT.
KREUTNER