ZANZIBAR: DONORS SEEK COMMON POSITION ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000385

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR AF/E: JLIDDLE AND INR/RAA:FEHRENREICH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PREL PGOV TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR: DONORS SEEK COMMON POSITION ON
ELECTIONS, POLITICAL RECONCILIATION

REF: (A) DAR ES SALAAM 340 (B) DAR ES SALAAM 444


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Key donor nations agree that the political
impasse in Zanzibar constitutes a "risk situation." There
was a consensus that donors needed to reinforce their
concerns with GOT and Zanzibar interlocutors and to press for
change through a common position. Norway and Netherlands are
looking at establishing "Zanzibar Affairs Officers" at their
respective embassies. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On June 9 Sweden, as EU President, hosted its second
meeting to coordinate positions and share information in the
lead-up to Tanzania's 2010 General Elections. Present were
ambassadors and charges from the UK, Norway, Finland, France,
Germany, Netherlands, Canada, Japan, Belgium, Ireland, Italy,
Spain, Switzerland and the European Commission. Also in
attendance were the UN Country Director, representatives from
UNDP and UK's DfID, Political Counselors from Denmark,
Norway, Sweden, UK and Canada, in addition to the U.S. P/E
Chief and Zanzibar Affairs Officer. Most of the discussion
centered on Zanzibar, where there was a consensus that the
archipelago represented a "risk situation."


3. (U) Swedish Ambassador Herrstrom recalled a recent visit
of European Ambassadors to Zanzibar as well as a recent
observation mission of key donor countries to witness the
by-election held May 23 in Zanzibar's Magogoni District (ref
A). Herrstrom said he was "impressed" by the lack of trust
among the parties, particularly among opposition party CUF.
He hoped donors could form a broad consensus on what might be
pre-conditions for a peaceful, free and fair election in

2010. He also asked delegations to work together to
harmonize key messages that all could use when dealing with
Tanzanian political leaders.


4. (SBU) Norway, which has just opened a Consulate in
Zanzibar, said it would ramp-up its political activity in
Zanzibar by sending a contracted "Zanzibar Affairs Officer"
who would be active in the region up to the 2010 elections.
The person they would send, a political scientist, performed
a similar function in 2005 in Zanzibar. Norway thought the
Zanzibar Election Commission had a more "positive approach"
than in previous elections, although there was still some
political interference with the body. Of concern for now was
voter
registration, which was rigged in favor of ruling CCM and
which might be difficult to monitor. Norway also warned
delegations to be more critical in their conversations with
opposition CUF, noting that the party also had the power to
be disruptive to the electoral process. Who CCM/Zanzibar
names as its leader going into 2010 will also be crucial for
a stable, post-Karume transition. Delegations should
continue a "constructive dialogue" with likely candidates,
reinforcing shared goals and sharing information when
possible.


5. (SBU) Soon-to-depart Dutch Ambassador Van Kesteren, the
only Ambassador at the meeting who was personally present in
Zanzibar during the 2005 General Elections (thought by most
observers to have been flawed),was critical of the present
government's ability to hold free and fair elections. He
said there was no real change with CCM/Zanzibar since
multi-party elections began. Senior members of CCM still
were of the "win at all costs"
mentality. Van Kesteren called on delegations to play
"hardball." Donors should draft a common letter to ZEC with
agreed-upon minimum conditions that needed to be present on
the ground by a specific date, say November or December 2009.
Should those conditions not be met, then donors would "pull
the plug" on paying for or otherwise supporting the
elections, labeling them a "fraud." (COMMENT: after the
meeting Van Kesteren confided to ZAO that
his Embassy was requesting The Hague to re-assign an officer

DAR ES SAL 00000385 002 OF 002


in the Dutch Embassy's political section to perform as a
"Zanzibar Affairs Officer," "along the lines of the
U.S. Embassy model," he said. END COMMENT).


6. (U) UN Resident Coordinator Fernandez-Taranco said that
there was a difference between the political and technical
aspects of an election, and that 2010 would be a vast
improvement over previous elections on the technical side.
The UN has had successful outreach with security forces and
the youth wings of the respective parties. The by-elections
over the past months showed tangible results of those
encounters. Meanwhile, registration and contestation by
political parties were the core issues for elections
anywhere. Donors should build on recent successes and
continue to build trust with ZEC and with the parties. The
UN Country Director also cautioned the group to ensure their
election observers follow internationally recognized codes of
conduct. He said ZEC had made some informal complaints to
the UN with respect to the Magogoni observers; delegations
should be careful they don't compromise the process.


7. (SBU) EC Ambassador Tim Clarke said that he, too, saw no
change in the overall political atmosphere in Zanzibar over
the years, but that there was still time to work on "leveling
the playing field." Training for international observers and
common talking points among the donors was a good first
start. The UK High Commissioner said that any common theme
repeated by donors should have at its core the message that
we supported the Union of Tanzania and instability in
Zanzibar reflected on the nation as a whole. The French
Ambassador said "the problem with drawing a line in the sand
was that it often was washed away at high tide." Finland
recalled that after the failed, violent 1996 elections in
Zanzibar, the Finnish Government reduced its support for
Tanzania, a position that was hard to sustain over time given
the real humanitarian issues facing the country. Japan said
it hoped to join any consensus that emerged within a UN
framework.


8. (SBU) Sweden concluded that "Kikwete holds the key" toward
any broad-based change of tone in the islands. Norway agreed
to circulate draft points to use as a common
basis of engagement with political actors in the run-up to
2010 and asked for input by June 12.


9. (SBU) Embassy proposes to offer language along the
following lines to serve as basis for a common position on
Zanzibar among donor nations:

-- Our assistance is for the people of Tanzania, not any
particular political party. On Zanzibar, we implement our
assistance in cooperation with whatever government Zanzibaris
choose to elect.

-- Any political instability in Zanzibar damages the
international reputation of Zanzibar as a whole.

-- Given historically thin pluralities between Zanzibar
political parties, a system with no avenue for the losing
party to influence change is a recipe for continued tension.
Political tension impedes development.

-- Development partners expect transparent, free and fair
elections in 2010, held in a climate of civility and
security. Our continued engagement at current levels is
based on that assumption.
MUSHINGI