TANZANIA BY-ELECTION: CCM WINS, CHADEMA RISING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000363

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E JLIDDLE; INR/RAA FOR FEHRENREICH
STATE PASS USAID

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM TZ
SUBJECT: TANZANIA BY-ELECTION: CCM WINS, CHADEMA RISING

REF: a: Dar es Salaam 340, b: 2008 Dar es Salaam 722

DAR ES SAL 00000363 001.2 OF 002



1. Summary: Opposition Chadema mounted a serious challenge to ruling
CCM in the May 24 by-election in Busanda, but was unable to overcome
CCM's traditional strength in rural areas. The by-election results
suggest growing support for Chadema as the primary opposition in
mainland Tanzania, in particular in urban and semi-urban areas.
Chadema's rise is at the expense of CUF, the other major opposition
party, which saw its vote tally drop by 90 percent since 2005 in the
district. Embassy Political Assistant and MCC Deputy Resident
Country Director led a small observer mission, with representatives
from the UK, Netherlands, and the European Community. Overall the
election appeared well-organized, although Chadema complained about
CCM campaign tactics. End Summary.

BACKGROUND
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2. The Busanda seat came open after the death (of natural causes) of
its MP, Faustine Rwilomba, a CCM back-bencher of no particular
distinction. Busanda constituency is a primarily rural agricultural
area in Mwanza region, south of Lake Victoria. The nearest town is
the gold-mining center of Geita, site of one of Tanzania's most
productive mines; there is also some small-scale mining in the
district. Infrastructure is generally poor, especially in the rural
sections. (Note: Busanda, which currently has no connection to the
national electrical grid, is slated to receive transmission lines
under the Millennium Challenge Compact.)

CANDIDATES
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3. CCM's candidate, Lolensia Bukwimba, beat out 11 other party
candidates in a contested nominating process. Some locals told us
she had been chosen for her professional qualifications and
educational attainment, although she was not the best-connected or
popular among CCM leaders in the district. CCM campaigned
vigorously, with numerous MPs from the region, the Ministers of Home
Affairs and Energy and Minerals, and other top party leadership
visiting the district. Based on news reports and the final day's
rally, the candidate ran a generally positive campaign, promising to
uphold the CCM manifesto and bring development to the constituency.
CCM's main rally the day before the election turned out a few
hundred supporters and other observers.


4. As in other recent by-elections, the opposition failed to unite
around a single candidate; however, only Chadema seriously
challenged CCM. Chadema candidate Fineas Magessa ran on a platform
of attacking CCM for incompetence, corruption, and failure to
improve the lives of the district's people. Like CCM, Chadema
brought its senior party leadership to the campaign. Its final
rally, in the urban area of Katoro, drew an audience of more than a
thousand. In the weeks before the election, numerous commentators
predicted either a Chadema victory or a very close race.


5. Two other opposition parties, CUF and UDP, also ran candidates.
Both parties failed to properly register their polling agents. As a
result, they were not represented at any of the polling stations
during the voting and the counting of the ballots. Although CUF
national Chairman Ibrahim Lipumba represented the party during the
campaign, it appears the party as a whole paid more attention to the
by-election on Zanzibar (ref a),where its candidate had a more
realistic chance at winning.

RESULTS
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6. The final tally showed a clear but not overwhelming margin for
CCM (29,000 votes, 54 percent) over Chadema (22,800 votes, 42
percent). Chadema won two urban wards by significant margins but
was swept in the rural areas. CUF registered just under 1,000 votes
and UDP less than 300. By contrast, in the 2005 elections, the CCM
candidate took nearly 80 percent of the vote, with CUF and Chadema
taking 11 and 4 percent, respectively. Only 41 percent of
registered voters came to the polls, about average for by-elections.
The new MP will bring the number of elected women MPs to eighteen,
all but one from CCM. (Note: CCM has pledged to increase its female
representation in parliament to 50 percent, but the mechanism for
doing so remains unclear.)

CONDUCT OF THE CAMPAIGN AND VOTING

DAR ES SAL 00000363 002.2 OF 002


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7. A five-member diplomatic mission met with regional and local
officials, including the Returning Officer in charge of election
management, as well as the CUF and CCM candidates and party
officials. We observed party rallies the day before the election
and visited about ten percent of the 380 polling stations on
election day.


8. According to news reports and discussions with party and
electoral officials, the campaign was generally orderly. There were
some reports of violence (allegedly by CCM against Chadema
supporters). Electoral officials told us that Chadema allegations
of CCM vote-buying (a common opposition theme in by-elections) and
CCM assertions that Chadema had acted provocatively by burning a CCM
flag had not been substantiated.


9. The balloting was generally well run. The election officials
appeared to be knowledgeable and had the necessary supplies to
conduct the vote. Some of the polling stations were makeshift and
cramped, especially in the more rural areas. CCM and Chadema party
agents were present in each of the stations. Urban voters tended to
have a longer wait to vote but were otherwise unimpeded. We
encountered several groups of youth in urban areas - Chadema
supporters - who claimed they had registered but could not find
their names at any polling station. Police presence was clearly
increased in the district. Each cluster of polling stations had one
unarmed officer, while the armed Field Force Unit conducted roving
patrols. There were no reports of violence. We once saw a brief
confrontation between a Field Force patrol and one of the groups of
dissatisfied youth, but the incident resolved peacefully.


10. The final vote compilation was held up because the Chadema
candidate failed to appear at the electoral office. After the
results were announced, he rejected his loss and proclaimed his
intention to take legal action. Chadema party leaders subsequently
said the party would not join any legal challenge to the results,
though they continued to criticize CCM campaign tactics. (Note: The
candidate's unwillingness to concede echoed the outcome of the
Tarime by-election [ref b], with the party roles reversed.)

COMMENT
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11. Chadema's strong showing in a district formerly safe for CCM
suggests that it will pose a serious challenge in an increased
number of mainland constituencies in 2010, especially in urban
areas, although CCM's hold on a substantial parliamentary majority
and the presidency seems secure. The result in Busanda further
suggests that Chadema has momentum on the mainland compared to CUF,
which increasingly risks being seen as a Zanzibar party. Chadema
will have a further opportunity to test its appeal as the mainland
opposition vanguard on July 5. The final by-election before the
2010 general election will take place in Biharamulo, Kagera region,
for a seat won by a formerly strong but now barely functioning
opposition party, TLP.

HANNAN