ZANZIBAR: PEMBA SIMMERS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000125

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR AF/E JLIDDLE, INR/RAA FEHRENREICH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EAID TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR: PEMBA SIMMERS

REFS: (A) 2008 Dar es Salaam 839 (B) 2008 Dar es Salaam 461 (C) 08
Dar es Salaam 444

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Several recent Embassy trips to Pemba, the second
principal island of the Zanzibar archipelago (holding about 40
percent of the self-governing region's population) confirm that it
remains among the least developed regions of Tanzania. Persistent
power problems and a rapidly declining agricultural-based economy
combined with growing inflation and rising food costs make
frustrations there palpable. Although nearly all elected officials
on Pemba are from the opposition CUF party, ruling party CCM chose
to hold its 2009 Revolution Day celebrations there and sponsored a
multi-day tour of the island by Tanzanian President (and CCM
Chairman) Kikwete. During his visit, Kikwete made locally
inflammatory remarks about the continuance of CCM rule in Zanzibar
beyond the 2010 elections. Locals complain that more than 2,000
mainland troops sent to the island for the Revolution Day ceremony
and for Kikwete's protection detail will stay on the island through
the 2010 election. While this might not be true, it is symptomatic
of the degree of mistrust that prevails. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) February 11-12 ZAO and Embassy Grants Officer traveled to
the rural Zanzibari island of Pemba to follow-up on an Ambassador's
Self Help grant of USD 3000 presented to a local cooperative to grow
seaweed commercially (septel). Whereas Pemba is the second
principal island of the Zanzibar archipelago and holds about 40
percent of the self-governing region's population, it remains among
the least developed regions of Tanzania. Fundo Island, location of
the seaweed cooperative grant, can be called the "Pemba of Pemba."
It is reachable only via an hour-long boat ride, followed by a
several hundred meter walk across a knee-deep coral shelf.
Nonetheless, about 3,000 people reside there in three villages. It
supports a single elementary school, also shared by the scattered
inhabitants of three adjacent, even more remote islands. The Sheha
(local administrator) of Fundo said that we were the first foreign
officials ever to visit the island, and the log book of the small
immigration outpost in the port of Wete where we embarked confirmed
this: the two-dozen or so entries of foreigners making the trip over
the last few years listed mostly Europeans and a few Japanese who
stated as their purpose of travel "scuba diving." Meanwhile,
Zanzibar Affairs Specialist also made two trips to Pemba in
mid-February to monitor the selection process for a USG-funded youth
exchange program ("YES"). This report encompasses our collective
observations.


3. (U) Lack of good roads, a teacher shortage, poor phone service
and other infrastructure issues plague Pemba, as they do much of
rural Tanzania. However, Pemba's main problem is power generation
and delivery. Even after the November debacle that left the
island's two diesel-powered generators sidelined for a fortnight
(ref A),the power plants still remain rickety. Throughout this
year, electricity never has flowed for more than 12 hours daily, and
only then intermittently. This has caused an upsurge of private
generator use among those who can afford it. However, fuel delivery
to the island has not met the demand, so petrol for fishing boats
more often than not comes from jerry cans sold out of the back of
cars at black market prices. Power for refrigeration throughout the
island has been among the first things sacrificed by small
businessmen, so even when fisherman do make the petrol investment
and go to sea despite the expense, their catch must be sold and
consumed right away. A prominent fish exporter told us that this is
the worst market he has had to endure in 20 years of doing business.
A Tanzanian NGO worker based in Dar es Salaam bragged to us how
cheap she was buying fish, and we later saw her at the airport
trying to check in excess baggage full of seafood.


4. (U) Meanwhile, state control of the clove industry in Zanzibar,
most of it coming from Pemba, has long remained a source of
resentment against the CCM-controlled government. That complaint has
grown more acute. Cloves are harvested once a year, starting around
Oct-Nov. and shipped around the beginning of the new year. This
year, the government cut the price from TSH 3,000 per kg to TSH
1,800 per kg (while growers claim the dock price in Mombasa, Kenya,
is the equivalent of TSH 16,000 per kg). Many growers have gotten
out of the business, and few are re-planting. Locals claim that
state-control of the clove business is a deliberate move by the
ruling CCM party to punish Pemba for its support of opposition party
CUF.


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5. (U) In Pemba's capital of Chake Chake (population about 35,000),
there is only one functioning restaurant, few taxis and no cold
drinks to be found. When the generator of the town's two hotels
kicked on, ZAO saw several dozen local ladies come with buckets to
collect water from the hotel's outdoor spigot. The only local
television station (government-owned) has ceased transmission, and
the employees there no longer bother to show up for work.


6. (SBU) Save the Children - UK (strictly protect) reports of
dehydration and malnutrition in the remote, northeast peninsula
above the town of Micheweni. The NGO's Zanzibar Director confided
to ZAO that she is nervous about the security of her staff,
especially in that region. She recalled that in May of 2008
following collapse of the reconciliation talks between CCM and CUF
(called "Muafaka") and the short term arrest of "Pemban elders" for
treason, some rural communities blocked the provision of food aid
and threatened staff, saying that the problems were political and
needed to be solved through pressure on the regional and national
government. Currently Save the Children is implementing a cash
transfer program in that district. The expatriate overseeing it
said that there seemed to be increased numbers of police check
points, but he had not encountered any trouble.


7. (U) Adding to the tension, in January the ruling CCM party
decided to hold its Revolution Day anniversary at the Gombani
Stadium in Chake Chake, followed by a multi-day tour of the island
by Tanzanian President (and CCM Chairman) Kikwete. (NOTE: The 1964
"revolution," which featured indiscriminate violence against Arabs
and others considered pro-Sultanate, had few supporters on Pemba.
Historical resentments are still fresh. END NOTE.) During his
Pemba visit, Kikwete made locally inflammatory remarks about the
continuance of CCM rule in Zanzibar beyond the 2010 elections and
hailed the "benefits that continue to spring from the revolutionary
Zanzibari government." Heretofore, most opposition CUF members and
their Pemban supporters reserved their ire for Zanzibari President
Karume because Kikwete at least paid lip service to reconciliation.
That he should now come during bad times and praise "progress" was
at best perceived as callous. Worse, at one Pemban CCM rally
attended by Kikwete and Karume, a perhaps over-zealous speaker
boasted that in 2010 CCM would have an absolute majority on Unguja
and "take 8 of the 19 House seats on Pemba." CCM currently has no
House of Representatives seats on Pemba, and many Pembans are
wondering aloud about the specificity of a possible vote count
almost two years before the election.


8. (U) Adding greatly to the tension on Pemba is the widely repeated
story that 2,000 troops arrived in Pemba from the mainland the week
prior to Revolution Day, moved into existing army camps, and have
not departed. There is fear that they will remain through the 2010
election. Officials deny this is the case.

COMMENT


9. (SBU) COMMENT: ZAO did not personally notice more security
personnel during his visit to Pemba (although under "normal"
circumstances, there are more check points and more troops per
capita than around Dar es Salaam or on the main Zanzibar island of
Unguja, itself a veritable armed camp when compared to the laid-back
mainland.). If there were more troops on Pemba, they must be
hunkered down in garrison, as the streets of Wete and Chake Chake
were as desolate as ever due to the economic shut-down. Embassy
Defense Attache commented that garrisoning 2,000 troops in a new
location for a prolonged period would be unrealistic given known GOT
military budget limitations. What is important, however, is that
the belief that there is an "occupation force" on Pemba is
widespread and even repeated by Pembans resident in the main island
of Unguja.


10. (SBU) Even assuming the added troop figure is true, and given
the common belief that they all would be registered to vote, 2,000
votes would not be enough to swing the outcome for CCM. Such an
influx of troops would, however, be a formidable force for
intimidation. In the build-up to the 2000 and 2005 elections, large
numbers of security personnel were brought into Unguja and Pemba.
In addition to physical intimidation during voting, there also were
reports of women and children from the families of opposition
leaders being rounded up as "hostages" to curtail opposition
activities. At the very least, there were confirmed reports that
families in some Pemba districts fled their homes due to the

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increased presence of security personnel.


11. (SBU) With or without additional troops, conditions on Pemba
are bad, and government boasts that times are good ring hollow, or
worse, sound like taunts to those whose quality of life appears to
be deteriorating. Zanzibar Affairs Specialist heard renewed
rumblings for Pemban secession from Zanzibar (ref B). No one speaks
of an independent Pemba, a ludicrous concept given its small size
and economic weakness. Rather, Pembans seek to disassociate
themselves from the rule of Unguja/Zanzibar and instead associate
directly with the mainland, like Mafia island further to the south,
which administratively is part of the mainland's Coast Region.


12. (U) A CCM District Commissioner with whom ZAO spoke seemed to
earnestly believe that the planned Norwegian-funded power cable from
Tanga on the mainland would be completed before 2010 and all would
be well. The Norwegians have not publicly promised such a deadline,
however. Although the Norwegians have informally told their USG
counterparts at the Millennium Challenge Corporation that the
fabrication of the planned cable is actually ahead of schedule in
Norway, their prior experience with projects in Tanzania has caused
them to remain publicly cautious; thus, they maintain that their
cable project will be completed sometime "in 2011." Meanwhile, an
expatriate from Tanga told ZAO that Tanga, the presumed source of
power to Pemba, was currently facing severe power shortages of its
own. It is clear that Pemba will be the battleground in the lead-up
to the 2010 elections, but just how CCM (and CUF) intend to fight
that battle remains to be seen. END COMMENT.

ANDRE