KERRY - ASAD: SAUDIS MAY BE SOWING THE SEEDS OF

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2019
TAGS: PREL SA LE SY
SUBJECT: KERRY - ASAD: SAUDIS MAY BE SOWING THE SEEDS OF
LEBANON'S NEXT CIVIL WAR

Classified By: CDA Maura Connelly for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C/NF) Summary: Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee Senator John Kerry asked President Bashar al-Asad
February 21 about Syria's activities in Lebanon in the
lead-up to Lebanese elections in June. Asad, clearly primed,
demanded, "Saudi Arabia has spent millions of dollars in
Lebanon for the elections . . . are you against this (too)?"
Asad refused to yield to pressure to quickly name a Syrian
ambassador to Beirut, calling it a "sovereign issue," and
implying that the French had railroaded him unwittingly into
making a commitment to send an ambassador before the end of

2008. "Every step has a meaning," he said, declaring that he
knew whom he would appoint and when he would announce the
appointment, refusing to share the information before then.
Asad alleged the Saudis were "paying out money, approaching
the elections like a political war." If the line that
ultimately separates Lebanon's political opponents is
sectarian, then, Asad warned, the seeds of the next civil war
will have been sown. Asad's overt anxiety over trends in
Lebanon, and his particular concern over Saudi interference,
demonstrates yet again that Syria views Lebanon as its
vulnerable underbelly and is still preoccupied by the
perpetual concern that civil war could once again erupt
there. End Summary.



2. (C) Senator John Kerry emphasized a new U.S. approach to
diplomacy in the Middle East during a February 21 meeting
with Syrian President Bashar al-Asad that lasted more than
two hours. Also attending the meeting were Syrian FM Walid
al-Muallim, Presidential Advisor for Political and Media
Affairs Bouthaina Shaaban, and Syrian Ambassador to the U.S.
Imad Mustafa. Kerry was accompanied by Charge as well as
SFRC staffers Frank Lowenstein and Perry Cammack. This cable
reports on the discussion of Syria's relationship with and
activities in Lebanon. Other topics septels.

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Intervention in Lebanon: Accusations against Saudis
-------------- --------------


3. (C/NF) Senator Kerry broached the subject of Lebanon with
Asad by positing that Asad might be willing to agree to send
a Syrian ambassador to Lebanon and stay out of Lebanon's
electoral process as signs of Syrian respect for Lebanese
sovereignty. Asad, nearly bristling, asked what Kerry meant
by "staying out" of Lebanese elections, asking, "how am I
in?" Acknowledging Syria's long-time historical and cultural
interests in Lebanon, Kerry said the question is whether or
not there is any direct interference in Lebanon's elections.
Asad, clearly primed, declared, "Saudi Arabia has spent
millions of dollars in Lebanon for the elections . . . are
you against this (too)?" "Syria isn't rich, we don't have
money . . . and Iran can send money to Lebanon without Syria
being involved . . . Iran has its own embassy there."
Shifting tactics, Kerry asked if Asad could have his
ambassador in Lebanon by mid-March, for example. Asad again
balked and asked why is the ambassador so important; "Did I
open an embassy in Beirut without the intention of sending an
Ambassador?" Kerry responded that sending an ambassador is a
metric useful in calculating changes in policy. Asad
answered that he had been ready to send an ambassador in 2005
but the "previous Lebanese government had not been good (sic)
with Syria." He continued, "Now, after the Doha agreement
(that resolved the impasse over the election of a new
Lebanese president),the new President is good and we are
ready to exchange ambassadors." Asad acknowledged his
relations with Lebanese President Michel Sleiman were moving
forward, but not fast.

-------------- --
French Railroading on Ambassadorial Appointment
-------------- --


4. (C/NF) Harking back to July, Asad confided that during
his visit to Paris for the Bastille Day celebrations, French
President Nicholas Sarkozy had wanted to hold a press
conference to welcome the Syrian decision to establish
diplomatic relations but Asad had declined. Later, when
French FM Bernard Kouchner visited Syria in August, he asked
when a Syrian ambassador would be sent to Beirut and he was

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told before the end of the year. (Comment: Asad seemed to
imply that this conversation was the source of the
expectation that Syria's ambassador would take up residence
by the end of 2008. End comment) And, then, at a later date,
Asad said, French Presidency advisor Claude Gueant came to
Damascus and asked the question again. "This is a sovereign
issue," Asad declared to Kerry. "I know the name (of the
ambassador-designate) and the date (the name will be
announced) . . . the timing has meaning . . . every step has
meaning . . . but it's our timing and it's not important to
the Syrian ) U.S. relationship."

--------------
Fears of the Next Civil War
--------------


5. (C/NF) Returning to the Lebanese elections, Asad repeated
his accusations against Saudi Arabia, alleging the Saudis
were "paying out money, approaching the elections like a
political war." If the line that ultimately separates
Lebanon's political opponents is sectarian, then, Asad
warned, the seeds of the next civil war will have been sown.
"It's important that the Saudi money doesn't only go to the
Sunni bloc," he said, "or else there will also be a Shia bloc
and the Christians will have no choice but to form their own
bloc." Shaking his head, he said, "This is always the
problem in Lebanon." Kerry noted that religious
polarization is a concern for all secular governments to
which Asad replied that his "prime challenge" is dealing with
extremism and terrorism. Kerry noted that Asad's vision for
the future was different from that of an organization like
Hizballah. Asad said that Hizballah Secretary General Hasan
Nasrallah believes in an Islamic state but that remains only
a concept unless Hizballah were to receive an overwhelming
majority of 70-80 percent of the vote. "In the West," Asad
said, "you think about Hizballah as missiles and terrorists
but most Hizballah members have other occupations to pursue
and would welcome peace." Kerry asked how Asad derived his
confidence that Nasrallah would give up religiously-based
appeal for political power? Asad answered that Hizballah now
"has an excuse because of Israel." If there were peace, he
said, people would not be ready to die, there would be no
grass roots support for these groups (like Hizballah) when
there is peace. But, Asad also said, Nasrallah can be
trusted: "When he says something, he does it."

--------------
Border Issues
--------------


6. (C/NF) Kerry asked about progress on the process of
demarcating the border between Syria and Lebanon. Asad
replied that there is "no historical problem" between Syria
and Lebanon on the border but there are a number of villages
that are Lebanese but whose access roads are in Syria; some
children even attend Syrian schools. The demarcation
process, he said, was started three years ago. Syria had
wanted to start in the north while Lebanon wanted to start in
the south because of the GOL's problem with Hizballah. Kerry
asked if the demarcation process with Lebanon was pending
completion of the demarcation process for the
Syrian-Jordanian border. Asad responded, "It's done" but
Muallim intervened to say that the demarcation committee
still needs two months to finish the Jordanian border. In
response to Kerry's question regarding the PFLP-GC camps
along the Syrian - Lebanese border, Asad explained that the
camps straddle the border. He had told Sleiman that when the
Lebanese have consensus among themselves regarding the
Palestinian militias and Al-Qaeda, Syria would assist in
closing the camps. "But we can't do it without consensus --
it would start a civil war."


7. (C/NF) Comment: Asad's hackles were obviously raised by
prodding over when he would send his ambassador to Lebanon.
Granted, he is often asked the question (and was asked three
times in one week by U.S. codels); he now seems inclined to
dismiss the end of 2008 deadline as the French having
railroaded him unwittingly into a commitment. Strangely,
Asad did not react with counter-complaints that the Lebanese
have been slow to open an embassy in Damascus, even if their
ambassador has been named. What appears to genuinely concern
Asad is the idea that Saudi manipulation of the elections

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will exacerbate tensions in Lebanon to the extent that
cross-confessional alliances would break down entirely. He
kept mum, of course, on Syrian efforts to influence the
elections but curiously handed up the Iranians. Asad is
perhaps less comfortable with the notion of a predominant
Hizballah than his testimonial to Hasan Nasrallah would
suggest. Asad's overt anxiety over trends in Lebanon, and
his particular concern over Saudi interference, demonstrates
yet again that Syria views Lebanon as its vulnerable
underbelly and is still preoccupied by the perpetual concern
that civil war could once again erupt there.


8. (U) Codel Kerry has cleared this cable.
CONNELLY